我国城乡居民发展性消费支出问题的统计研究

发布时间：2018-05-07 22:03

本文选题：发展性消费 + ARIMA模型　；参考：《河北大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：消费是表征居民生活质量和福利水平的重要指标。为深入研究居民生活质量水平，本文提出了发展性消费的概念，并对其进行分析。本文在对发展性消费的概念做出界定之后，选择了一系列实证分析方法对我国城乡居民发展性消费从多个角度进行分析。由于我国存在着城乡二元结构，分析我国城乡居民发展性消费时采用了先对城镇居民和农村居民分别进行分析,然后将两者结合进行对比分析的思路。在实证分析时，，首先采用描述性统计分析方法展现我国城乡居民发展性消费现状，并采用ARIMA模型对今后几年的发展性消费变化趋势进行预测。接下来借用基尼系数指标来衡量我国不同地区之间城乡居民人均发展性消费水平的差异性。最后，为反映地区间居民收入对居民发展性消费的影响，采用面板数据模型研究了各地区发展性消费随收入变化而呈现出的不同特征。研究结果表明，虽然近年来我国城镇居民和农村居民的人均发展性消费都有大幅提高，但城乡间差距依然较大。可喜的是，城镇居民和农村居民人均发展性消费的差异近来呈现出缩小趋势。全国人均发展性消费基尼系数测算结果和面板数据模型的研究结果表明，不但我国城乡居民人均发展性消费在地区间存在较大差异，而且居民收入对各地区居民人均发展性消费的影响方式方面也存在很大差异。因此建议我国应该在农业政策实施、城乡基础设施建设和社会保障体系的完善等方面入手，为居民发展性消费的持续健康发展提供保障。另外，为了调节收入对发展性消费的影响，有必要尽快对收入分配制度进行改革，缩小差距，消除因收入引发的发展性消费水平差异。
[Abstract]:Consumption is an important indicator of the quality of life and the level of welfare of the residents. In order to study the quality of life of the residents, the concept of development consumption is put forward and analyzed.
After defining the concept of development consumption, this paper selects a series of empirical analysis methods to analyze the development of urban and rural residents in China from multiple angles. Since there is a two yuan structure in urban and rural areas in China, the analysis of urban and rural residents and rural residents is analyzed respectively in the analysis of urban and rural residents' development consumption. In the case of empirical analysis, the present situation of urban and rural residents' development consumption in China is presented by the descriptive statistical analysis method, and the ARIMA model is used to predict the trend of development consumption change in the next few years. The difference between urban and rural residents' per capita development consumption level. Finally, in order to reflect the impact of regional residents' income on Residents' development consumption, the panel data model is used to study the different characteristics of development consumption in each region with the change of income.
The results show that, although the per capita development consumption of urban and rural residents in China has been greatly improved in recent years, the gap between urban and rural areas is still large. The results of the data model show that there is a great difference between the urban and rural residents' per capita development consumption in China, and the influence mode of residents' income on the per capita development consumption in each region is very different. Therefore, it is suggested that China should implement the agricultural policy, the urban and rural infrastructure construction and the social security body. In addition, in order to regulate the impact of income on the development of consumption, it is necessary to reform the income distribution system as soon as possible to narrow the gap and eliminate the flat difference in the development of consumption caused by income.

【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F126.1

【参考文献】