我国城乡居民收入差距与失业率关系的研究

发布时间：2018-05-25 09:25

本文选题：收入差距 + 失业率　；参考：《西南财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：中共中央在十八大报告中指出“截至2020年,我国将实现国内生产总值和城乡居民人均收入比2010年翻一番”,首次将“居民收入倍增”这一目标明确地纳入党大会的报告,使得“居民收入”及“城乡居民收入差距”等问题再次成为社会关注的焦点。与此同时,我国的社会经济活动人口数量逐年增加,其增长速度远远超过了社会年末从业人员的增长速度。出现了新增岗位低于新增劳动人口的局面,进而使得城镇登记失业人员数增加,城镇登记失业率上升。正如中国社科院在2010年《经济蓝皮书》中所述“…贫富悬殊、金融风险、高失业率…仍然是当前中国社会面临的前三大风险”。只要有“城乡二元结构”的存在,就必然存在着收入差距,如不能很好地解决这种城乡关系,必将导致失业率的上升。从历年数据不难发现,城乡居民收入差距与失业率的关系极为密切,且为正向的相关关系,故在本文中认为前者是造成失业率变化的主要原因。理论依据有如下两点：第一是生产部门间的“不公平感觉”。由于城乡居民收入差距的的存在,所产生不公平感觉将使得农村剩余劳动力发生转移,若城市区域无法提供更多的岗位,则会造成城市劳动力存量的增加,进而影响城市居民的就业；第二是劳动力转移成本低于产业转移。在我国当前的“城乡二元结构”下,城镇与农村两部门间发生产业转移并不切合实际,因为其成本远高于劳动力的流动,所以只有通过农村剩余劳动力转移来缩小城乡居民的收入差距。这部分人口对缩小收入的期望远大于对就业概率大小的风险回避,如果新增岗位少于转移的就业人口,则将会表现为失业率的上升。文章的创新点如提出了城乡居民收入差距而导致的农村剩余劳动力发生转移,导致失业率升高的直接原因；在实证分析时引入了滞后一期的失业率作为解释变量,用来反映国家再就业政策对于失业的作用；最后,用学界使用较少的动态面板差分广义矩估计的方法,克服了非球形扰动对模型的影响等。但是也有很多不足之处,如失业率数据的质疑,未考虑省际之间的劳动者转移,以及动态面板差分广义矩估计法的缺陷等,都将扩大解释变量对于被解释变量的作用,但对二者的作用方向并无实质性的影响,所以在文章假设中给予说明,加以克服并继续研究。实证过程中选择了动态面板差分广义矩估计作为分析方法,因为在文中选择了滞后一期的失业率作为解释变量,用来反映“失业惯性”以及其他未能观察到的变量对于当期城镇登记失业率的影响。在进行计量之前,对面板数据做了对数处理以消除时间序列的自相关。同时建立了五个数据模型用来解释当前的城乡差距是如何影响失业率的,该模型考虑到了变量间的自相关与异方差对于模型的干扰,并用Sargan检验是否存在着过度识别。对模型加以比较分析后,最后得出了当期及滞后一期的城乡居民收入差距对于失业率有正向的影响,并分别分析了诸如固定资产投资额、对外开放程度、非农产业比重等因素对于失业率的影响。发现了城乡收入差距与产业比重的变化具有替代关系,对外开放对我国的就业拉动作用在逐渐减弱以及再就业政策对降低失业率有积极作用等。
[Abstract]:The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China ( CPC ) pointed out in the eighteenth report that " as of 2020 , China will realize that the per capita income of GDP and urban and rural residents will be doubled over the year 2010 . The first time that the goal of " doubling the income of residents " is clearly incorporated into the report of the Congress of the Party , the growth rate of " resident income " and " income gap between urban and rural residents " has become the focus of social concern . At the same time , China ' s social and economic activity population increases year by year , which has increased the number of unemployed persons in urban areas , and the registered unemployment rate in urban areas has increased . As the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences stated in the Economic Blue Book of 2010 , " . . Rich and poor , financial risk , high unemployment rate . . It remains the first three major risks facing the Chinese society . "

As long as there exists the " dual structure " of urban and rural areas , there must be the income gap , which will inevitably lead to the rising unemployment rate . From the data on the past years , it is very difficult to find that the income gap between urban and rural residents is very close to the unemployment rate and is a positive correlation . Therefore , it is considered that the former is the " unfair feeling " between production departments .
The second is that labor transfer cost is lower than that of industrial transfer . In China ' s current urban and rural dual structure , the industrial transfer between town and rural area is not practical because its cost is much higher than that of labor force , so only through the transfer of surplus rural labor force to narrow the income gap of urban and rural residents . This part of the population is far greater than the risk avoidance of the size of employment probability , and if the new post is less than the transferred employment population , it will appear as rising unemployment rate .

The article points out that the transfer of rural surplus labor force caused by the income gap of urban and rural residents resulted in the direct cause of the increase of unemployment rate .
In the case of positive analysis , the unemployment rate of lag phase is introduced as explanatory variable , which is used to reflect the role of national reemployment policy on unemployment ;
Finally , the influence of non - spherical perturbation on the model is overcome by using less dynamic panel differential generalized moment estimation in the academic circle . However , there are many shortcomings , such as the question of unemployment data , the defect of labor transfer between provinces , and the defects of dynamic panel differential generalized moment estimation method .

This paper selects the dynamic panel differential generalized moment estimation as an analysis method in the empirical process , because the unemployment rate of the lag phase is selected as an explanatory variable , which is used to reflect the influence of " unemployment inertia " and other failures observed on the registered unemployment rate of the current town . The model is used to explain the influence of the factors such as the investment amount of fixed assets , the degree of opening to the outside and the specific gravity of the non - agricultural industry to the unemployment rate .
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.7;F249.21

【参考文献】