中国经济的基础性变化与政策困境

发布时间：2018-05-26 10:25

本文选题：经济增速 + 经济结构调整　；参考：《金融监管研究》2015年08期

【摘要】：对当前中国经济的分析不能仅关注总量分析,而应透过结构性变化来观察,这有助于理解宏观经济政策面临的艰难选择。本文对当前我国经济发展形势和货币政策效果的研究发现,经济形势仍然面临下行压力,但一些经济指标正在发生积极变化,经济增长质量明显改善;近期货币政策出现了"钝化",对调控投资需求、通缩紧缩和经济增长的边际效应有所递减,预算约束加强是重要原因;当前实际利率水平和企业融资成本仍然较高,缓解的重要手段是通过进一步降低存款准备金率来降低商业银行的资金成本。在当前中国经济增长模式和经济结构显著变化的背景下,宏观政策调控面临困境,人民币国际化、宏观债务风险判断、经济杠杆化与银行杠杆化、资产证券化、扩展性经济政策的效力和财政政策的作用等方面的理论研究亟待突破。
[Abstract]:The analysis of the current Chinese economy should not focus solely on the aggregate analysis, but should be observed through structural changes, which helps to understand the difficult choices faced by macroeconomic policies. This paper studies the current economic development situation and monetary policy effect in China. It is found that the economic situation is still facing downward pressure, but some economic indicators are changing positively, and the quality of economic growth is obviously improved. Recently, monetary policy has been "passivated", which has reduced the marginal effect of adjusting investment demand, deflationary austerity and economic growth, and the strengthening of budget constraints is an important reason; at present, the level of real interest rates and the financing costs of enterprises are still relatively high. An important means of mitigation is to reduce the capital cost of commercial banks by further reducing the reserve ratio. Under the background of the significant changes in China's economic growth model and economic structure, macroeconomic policy control is facing difficulties, such as RMB internationalization, macro-debt risk judgment, economic leverage, bank leverage, asset securitization, etc. The theoretical research on the effect of expansionary economic policy and fiscal policy is in urgent need of breakthrough.
【作者单位】：中国建设银行;
【分类号】：F121

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