房价上涨对我国城镇居民消费的挤出效应研究

发布时间：2018-06-04 21:14

本文选题：房价上涨 + 挤出效应　；参考：《统计研究》2014年12期

【摘要】：本文以住房双重属性为基础,从理论上分析发现房价上涨对消费的影响会因居民对住房属性的侧重不同产生差异,若侧重其投资品属性,最终影响会是挤出效应,抑制消费。本文根据不同类型居民的消费差异以及住房属性的不同侧重,构建动态面板模型进行实证分析,结果表明:我国房价上涨存在明显挤出效应,且地区性差异明显,进一步研究还发现挤出效应影响的广泛性,不仅直接挤出消费支出,还可作用于消费的其余影响因素间接抑制消费。因此,要减缓这种挤出效应,增强消费对经济的拉动作用,不仅要注重住房的消费品属性,合理调控房价上涨幅度,而且还需出台相关措施,例如缩小收入差距、降低消费支出不确定性和努力摆脱土地财政等。
[Abstract]:Based on the dual attributes of housing, this paper theoretically finds that the impact of rising house prices on consumption will be different from the residents' emphasis on housing properties. If we focus on the property of investment products, the final effect will be the effect of crowding out and restraining consumption. According to the consumption difference of different types of residents and the different emphases of housing properties, this paper constructs a dynamic panel model for empirical analysis. The results show that there is an obvious crowding out effect and regional difference in the rising of house prices in China. Furthermore, it is found that the influence of extrusion effect is extensive, not only directly squeezing out consumption expenditure, but also indirectly inhibiting consumption by other influencing factors. Therefore, in order to slow down this squeezing effect and enhance the pulling effect of consumption on the economy, we should not only pay attention to the property of the consumer goods of housing and rationally control the rise in house prices, but also need to introduce relevant measures, such as narrowing the income gap. Reduce consumer spending uncertainty and strive to get rid of land finance and so on.
【作者单位】：南京信息工程大学经济管理学院;长沙理工大学经管学院;南京信息工程大学计算机与软件学院;
【基金】：2014年度教育部人文社科青年基金项目“双重效应约束下房价波动对居民消费的门槛效应:倒U假说、实证及政策研究”(14YJC790060) 南京信息工程大学2014年度人才启动基金项目“房地产市场双重效应的形成机理及实证研究”(S8113086001) 2012年度国家社科基金重大专项“促进消费持续增长的长期政策和长效机制研究”(12&ZD050);2014年度国家社科基金一般项目“新型城镇化与产业转型升级良性互动发展的机理及路径研究”(14BJL068)资助
【分类号】：F299.23;F126.1;F224

【参考文献】