名义汇率、实际汇率波动的宏观经济运行互动关系研究

发布时间：2018-06-06 05:44

本文选题：名义汇率 + 实际汇率　；参考：《天津财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：在开放条件下,汇率是影响国民经济内外均衡的关键性变量。伴随着我国经济国际化程度的不断提高,汇率的作用也逐渐凸现出来。随着经济全球化趋势的加速发展,以及中国经济开放程度的不断提高,作为重要的对外经济变量,人民币汇率对于中国的宏观经济影响的重要性日渐增强。因此,客观的衡量人民币汇率对中国宏观经济内外均衡的真实影响不仅关系着对过去十多年来我国汇率政策的正确评价,更可以为未来人民币汇率制度的进一步改革提供决策依据。名义汇率作为一种金融资产价格,是用一种货币表示的另一种货币的价格。名义汇率的变化不仅影响一国的经济增长,而且对一国的国际收支、物价水平和劳动就业都具有明显的影响。实际汇率作为开放经济条件下一项重要的经济变量,对一国经济发展具有广泛的影响力和解释力。总体而言,汇率作为开放经济中的核心经济变量,不但与资本项目和经常项目有直接的关系,也与其他宏观经济变量密切相关。汇率的变动对进出口贸易、国际资本流动、国内物价水平和货币供应量等都有很大的影响,所以关系着一国宏观经济内外均衡的实现。论文主要是对我国名义汇率波动对宏观经济运行互动关系研究和实际汇率波动对宏观经济运行互动关系的研究比较。论文拟借助汇率的传导渠道和汇率的传导机制的相关理论,通过建立状态空间模型,从历史时间研究各个宏观经济变量对名义汇率、实际汇率的影响,并比较二者的关系。论文通过建立SVAR模型,对未来进行预测,找出名义汇率和实际汇率波动对我国宏观经济影响的异同,并结合我国的具体国情和对汇率的预期,试图从不同的角度提出新政策建议,从而有助于汇率的选择能够真正与我国的经济增长相适应。
[Abstract]:Under the open conditions, the exchange rate is the key variable that affects the internal and external equilibrium of the national economy. With the continuous improvement of the degree of economic internationalization of our country, the role of the exchange rate has gradually emerged. With the accelerated development of the trend of economic globalization and the continuous improvement of the openness of China's economy, as an important foreign economic variable, the RMB is an important external economic variable. The importance of exchange rate to the macroeconomic impact of China is increasing. Therefore, the objective measurement of the real impact of the RMB exchange rate on the internal and external equilibrium of China's macro-economy is not only related to the correct evaluation of China's exchange rate policy in the past more than 10 years, but also to provide a basis for further reform of the future RMB remittance system.
The nominal exchange rate, as the price of a financial asset, is the price of another currency expressed in one currency. The change of the nominal exchange rate not only affects the economic growth of a country, but also has an obvious influence on the balance of payments, the price level and the employment of a country. The real exchange rate is an important economic variable under the open economy. In general, as the core economic variable in the open economy, the exchange rate is not only directly related to the capital account and the current account, but also closely related to the other macroeconomic variables. The exchange rate changes to import and export trade, international capital flow, domestic price level and currency. Supply and so on have great influence, so it is related to the realization of a country's macroeconomic internal and external equilibrium.
The thesis is mainly about the research on the interaction relationship between the nominal exchange rate fluctuation and the macroeconomic operation and the interaction relationship between the real exchange rate fluctuation and the exchange rate fluctuation. The thesis intends to use the transmission channel of exchange rate and the exchange rate transmission mechanism of the exchange rate. By establishing a state space model, the paper studies the macro economy from the historical time. The influence of the variable on the nominal exchange rate and the actual exchange rate is compared and the relationship between the two is compared. Through the establishment of the SVAR model, the thesis will predict the future, find out the differences and similarities between the nominal exchange rate and the real exchange rate fluctuations on the macroeconomic impact of our country, and try to put forward the new policy suggestions from different angles, combining the specific national conditions of our country and the predate of the exchange rate. And the choice of exchange rate can be adapted to the economic growth of our country.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6;F124

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