基于技术差距的中国地区二氧化碳排放绩效研究
本文选题:二氧化碳 + 减排潜力 ; 参考:《山东大学》2013年博士论文
【摘要】:为应对全球气候变化和二氧化碳等温室气体的排放,中国作为世界上最大的二氧化碳排放国家,不仅面对来自世界各国的减排压力,还面临着国内资源能源和生态环境的矛盾。在国外和国内双重压力下,中国政府提出了到2020年实现单位GDP二氧化碳排放量比2005年降低40-45%的目标。接下来的问题是,如何实现这一减排目标,成为中国各省份地区迫在眉睫的任务。而中国一直以粗放型经济增长方式为主,如何在减少二氧化碳排放的同时又保持经济的持续增长对于当前快速发展的中国至关重要。 通过对二氧化碳排放研究的文献回顾发现,在全要素框架下科学研究我国二氧化碳排放绩效是制定节能减排政策的基本依据,也是进一步制定和明确各地区减排任务的基础,具有重要意义。与其他国家和地区相比,我国地区之间存在较大的技术差距。中国长期的粗放型发展模式产生了大量的二氧化碳等气体,这一方面归因于各地区在能源资源管理方面的差别,另一个重要的原因则在于地区之间的技术差距。因此要想实现我国各地区的减排目标及经济的可持续发展,则需要将这两方面原因区分开,分阶段有步骤的进行减排才更有针对性。鉴于此,本文基于技术差距的视角,从以下几个方面入手进行分析:我国省际二氧化碳排放量的测算、各省市地区碳排放效率及减排潜力、二氧化碳排放绩效的动态变化、影响我国碳排放效率的宏观经济因素以及在碳约束下的我国各地区全要素生产率分析等。 首先,由于我国目前并没有关于全国各省市地区二氧化碳排放量的直接数据库,因此本文首先较为精确地估算了我国30个省1997-2010年的二氧化碳排放量,构建了省级二氧化碳排放面板数据集,并对全国各地区二氧化碳排放量的地区差异及走势进行简要分析。然后通过对已有碳排放效率研究方法的比较,选取共同边界(Metafrontier)分析方法和数据包络分析(DEA)等方法进行介绍,并对相关指标变量及数据来源进行说明。 其次,考虑到中国区域发展不平衡的典型事实,本文从技术差距的视角,在全要素生产框架下利用共同前沿(Metafrontier)分析方法考察了1997-2010年全国30个省市地区二氧化碳排放效率及减排潜力。研究表明:中国二氧化碳排放效率整体偏低,技术落差率显示三大区域技术水平存在显著差别,东部地区技术最高,西部地区最低。共同前沿下各区域碳排放效率的提升空间差别较大,而区域前沿下各地区差别较小。 第三,我国各地区节能减排的潜力很大,且不同省份地区减排潜力存在较大差别。中国地区的减排潜力由区域前沿下的减排潜力和技术差距下的减排潜力构成,由于技术差距的影响,区域前沿下的减排潜力低于共同前沿下的减排潜力。在共同前沿下,三大区域的减排潜力随着时间推移而增大,其中以中部地区增长最快,其次是东部地区,西部地区最低。而在区域前沿下,则呈现出东部最快,其次是中部地区,西部地区最低的不同发展格局。因此,减排目标应分两阶段,短期内以区域前沿为参考基准,提高现有技术下的碳排放绩效,东部地区减排潜力最大,长期内缩小地区技术差距是关键。 第四,为了进一步分析我国区域间的动态演进过程,本文利用共同前沿(Metafrontier)分析方法在全要索框架下考察了1997-2010年全国30个省市地区二氧化碳排放绩效的动态变化。主要结论有:中国区域生产技术水平存在明显的地区差异,东部地区的技术落差率最高,接近技术共同前沿边界,中西部地区技术落差率较低。总体上,全国二氧化碳排放绩效持续改善,技术进步最为关键,技术效率变化显示东部地区碳排放技术效率提升显著,规模效率变化显示中西部地区处于最优生产规模,而东部地区趋向VRS技术,中西部地区技术边界追赶效应优于东部地区,在提升二氧化碳排放绩效方面潜力巨大。 第五,通过对影响二氧化碳排放效率变化的宏观经济因素做进一步的探讨,来实现碳排放效率的外在影响因素分析。本文选取了产权结构、能源消费结构、产业结构、对外开放度、政府干预、城市化水平和基础设施建设等变量进行实证分析。结果显示:全国范围内影响二氧化碳排放效率的各因素中,产权结构、能源消费结构、产业结构和政府干预在一定程度上抑制了碳排放效率的提高,而对外贸易和城市化水平具有显著的正面影响,基础设施建设与碳排放效率负相关,但影响不显著。 第六,在影响我国碳排放效率的因素中,已有研究认为对外贸易使中国成为“污染天堂”,产生了大量的二氧化碳排放,从而抑制了我国碳排放效率的提高。为了进一步验证了对外贸易与我国碳排放效率之间的关系,本文围绕对外贸易是否抑制了我国碳排放效率的提高这一问题展开深入研究发现,各省市进出口贸易和碳排放效率之间存在“倒U型”的关系。对于大多数省份来说,进出口贸易促进了我国碳排放效率的提高;随着进出口贸易的增加,碳排放效率呈现先增加后降低的现象。只有打破原有产业结构格局,引进外资和先进技术,改善对外贸易结构,才是实现我国碳减排任务的最有效途径。 第七,基于技术差距的视角,本文对传统的环境Malmquist-Luenberger生产率指数进行了拓展,并对1997-2010年全国30个省市地区环境约束下的全要素生产率及其影响因素进行了实证分析。主要结论有:我国三大区域技术水平差距明显并不断扩大,东部地区的技术落差率最高,中西部地区次之,并有逐渐下降的趋势。大部分省市地区在环境约束下的全要素生产率的增长得以改善,技术进步和规模效率变化是其主要动力,各区域之间技术效率有待进一步改善和提高,中部和西部地区在纯技术追赶方面落后于东部地区,但西部地区更易形成边界追赶。
[Abstract]:In response to global climate change and greenhouse gas emissions such as carbon dioxide, China, as the largest carbon dioxide emitter in the world, is not only facing the pressure of emission reduction from all countries in the world, but also facing the contradiction between domestic resources and energy and the ecological environment. Under the double pressure from abroad and at home, the Chinese government has put forward the realization of the year 2020. GDP carbon dioxide emissions are lower than the target of 40-45% in 2005. The next question is how to achieve this emission reduction target, which has become an urgent task in all provinces and regions of China. China has been based on extensive economic growth, and how to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and maintain sustained economic growth at the same time. The rapid development of China is crucial.
Through the literature review of carbon dioxide emission studies, it is found that the scientific research of carbon dioxide emission performance in China under the full factor framework is the basic basis for formulating the policy of energy saving and emission reduction, and it is also the basis for further formulating and defining the task of reducing emissions in various regions. Compared with his country and region, there are more areas in China. A large number of carbon dioxide and other gases are produced in China's long-term extensive development model, which is attributable to the differences in energy resources management in various regions and the other is the technical gap between regions. In view of this, this paper is based on the analysis of the following aspects: the measurement of China's inter provincial carbon dioxide emissions, the carbon emission efficiency and emission potential of the provinces and municipalities, the performance of carbon dioxide emissions, based on the technical gap. The change of state, the macroeconomic factors that affect the efficiency of China's carbon emissions, and the analysis of total factor productivity under various carbon constraints in China.
First, because there is no direct database of carbon dioxide emissions in all provinces and municipalities in China, the carbon dioxide emissions of 30 provinces in China for 1997-2010 years are estimated accurately, and the provincial carbon dioxide emission panel data set is constructed, and the regional difference of carbon dioxide emissions in all regions of the country is also made. The difference and trend are briefly analyzed. Then, by comparing the existing research methods of carbon emission efficiency, the common boundary (Metafrontier) analysis method and data envelopment analysis (DEA) are introduced, and the related index variables and data sources are explained.
Secondly, taking into account the typical fact that China's regional development is unbalanced, the carbon dioxide emission efficiency and emission reduction potential of 30 provinces and municipalities in 1997-2010 years are investigated from the perspective of the technology gap and the common frontier (Metafrontier) analysis method under the full factor production framework. The low technology drop rate shows that there are significant differences in the technical level of three regions, the highest technology in the eastern region and the lowest in the western region. The spatial difference of carbon emission efficiency under the common frontiers is relatively large, while the differences in the regional frontiers are small.
Third, the potential of energy conservation and emission reduction in various regions of China is great, and there is a large difference in the potential of emission reduction in different provinces and regions. The potential of emission reduction in China is made up of the potential of emission reduction under the regional frontier and the potential of emission reduction under the technology gap. Under the common frontier, the emission reduction potential of the three regions increases with the passage of time, with the fastest growth in the central region, the next in the eastern region and the lowest in the western region. At the forefront of the region, the eastern region is the fastest, followed by the lowest development pattern in the central and western regions. Therefore, the target of emission reduction should be divided into two stages and short term. Taking the regional frontiers as the reference standard, we should improve the performance of carbon emissions under the existing technology, and the eastern region has the greatest potential for reducing emissions, and the reduction of regional technological gap in the long run is the key.
Fourth, in order to further analyze the dynamic evolution process between China's regions, this paper uses the common frontier (Metafrontier) analysis method to investigate the dynamic changes in carbon dioxide emission performance in the 30 provinces and regions of the country for 1997-2010 years under the full demand cable framework. The main conclusions are: there are obvious regional differences in the level of production technology in the region of China. As a whole, the performance of carbon dioxide emission in the country is the most important. The change of technology efficiency shows that the technological efficiency of carbon emission in the eastern region has been improved significantly, and the change of scale efficiency shows that the central and western regions are the most important. The scale of excellent production, while the eastern region tends to VRS technology, the pursuit effect of technological boundary in the central and western regions is better than that of the eastern region, and it has great potential to improve the performance of carbon dioxide emissions.
Fifth, through further discussion on the macroeconomic factors that affect the change of carbon dioxide emission efficiency, the external influence factors of carbon emission efficiency are analyzed. This paper selects the property right structure, energy consumption structure, industrial structure, opening degree, government intervention, city level and infrastructure construction and other variables to carry on the empirical analysis The results show that, among the factors affecting the efficiency of carbon dioxide emissions nationwide, property rights structure, energy consumption structure, industrial structure and government intervention have suppressed the increase of carbon emission efficiency to a certain extent, while the level of foreign trade and urbanization has a significant positive impact, and the infrastructure construction is negatively related to the efficiency of carbon emissions. The influence is not significant.
Sixth, among the factors affecting China's carbon emission efficiency, foreign trade has considered that foreign trade made China a "pollution paradise" and produced a large amount of carbon dioxide emissions, thus inhibiting the increase of carbon efficiency in China. In order to further verify the relationship between foreign trade and carbon emissions efficiency in China, this article revolves around foreign trade. The relationship between the import and export trade and the carbon emission efficiency has a "inverted U" relationship between the import and export trade and the carbon emission efficiency. For most provinces, the import and export trade has promoted the improvement of China's carbon emission efficiency; with the increase of import and export trade, the efficiency of carbon emissions is first presented. The most effective way to realize China's carbon emission reduction task is to break the original industrial structure, introduce foreign capital and advanced technology and improve the foreign trade structure.
Seventh, based on the perspective of technology gap, this paper expands the traditional environmental Malmquist-Luenberger productivity index, and makes an empirical analysis of the total factor productivity and its influencing factors under the environmental constraints of the 30 provinces and municipalities in the past 1997-2010 years. The main conclusions are as follows: the technological level gap between the three regions of our country is obvious and expanding. In the East, the eastern region has the highest technical drop rate, the second in the Midwest, and the trend of gradual decline. In most provinces and cities, the growth of total factor productivity under the environment constraints is improved. Technological progress and the change of scale efficiency are the main motive force. The technical efficiency between the regions needs to be further improved and improved, the central and western regions are in the middle and the West. The region is lagging behind the eastern region in the pursuit of pure technology, but the western region is more likely to form border catching up.
【学位授予单位】:山东大学
【学位级别】:博士
【学位授予年份】:2013
【分类号】:X321;F124.5
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