对外贸易对山东省经济的影响研究

发布时间：2018-07-07 22:33

本文选题：对外贸易 + 经济增长　；参考：《内蒙古科技大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：近些年来，伴随着中国开放力度不断加大、经济增长方式转变以及产业结构调整，中国的经济发展取得了有目共睹的成绩，GDP增长迅速，对世界经济增长贡献越来越大。同时，进出口贸易发展也取得了很大突破，连续多年一直保持着贸易顺差，贸易总额连年持续增长，出口商品中高附加值以及高科技含量的商品成为了出口主力。在经济全球化今天，由于国与国之间联系越来越紧密，相互依存度也越来越高，，中国经济增长越来越受到世界其他国家影响，对外贸易对于一国或者地区经济拉动作用日益显著。山东省作为一个沿海开放省份，经济增长和对外贸易始终走在中国各省份前列。2012年，山东省的经济总量达到了5万亿元，同时，外贸总额也达到了2455.4亿美元。对外贸易对山东省经济影响力日益增强，成为支持山东省国民经济迅速、稳定、良性发展的关键要素。因此，本文研究分析山东省进出口贸易与山东省经济增长之间相互关系，探索对外贸易对经济增长影响，不仅能够可以看出当前山东省经济增长情况以及对外贸易整体发展情况，而且还可以找出对外贸易在促进山东省经济增长方面不足，为进一步制定相关对外贸易政策、法律措施，更好促进山东省经济社会发展提供依据。文章首先对山东省GDP和对外贸易进出口总额，从1987年-2011年25年增长变化情况进行了分析；通过外贸依存度指标可以说明山东省对外贸易对经济增长拉动作用的强弱。近年来，山东省对外贸易依存度一直保持在30%以上，可以看出对外贸易对山东省经济增长有着明显的拉动作用。通过外贸竞争力指数分析，可以看出山东省进出口贸易在国际上的竞争力已经有了大幅度提高。文章还分别对进出口商品结构特征、贸易方式结构，贸易主体以及外贸市场结构等几个方面进行了分析。然后本文基于对外贸易与山东省经济增长关系，采用定量分析方法进行阐述。首先，对计量经济学模型进行介绍，单位根检验，协整关系检验，格兰杰因果关系检验，误差修正模型。第二，在利用单位根检验对外贸易和山东省经济增长之间稳定性以后，通过协整关系检验找出对外贸易与山东省经济增长之间存在联系，再通过Granger因果关系检验，可以看出对外贸易与山东省经济增长之间存在着相互促进作用，从而可以确定山东省对外贸易对山东省经济增长能够起到很强拉动作用。第三，通过定性和定量分析可以看出，山东省对外贸易能够拉动山东省经济快速增长，为了使得对外贸易与山东省经济增长取得良好增长，本文最后提出应该不断加强企业自主创新能力，加快产业结构不断升级，继续增加高附加值和高科技含量商品出口，不断完善政府对于经济调控力度等对策建议，促进山东省经济社会不断进步。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the increasing of China's opening to the outside world, the transformation of the mode of economic growth and the adjustment of industrial structure, China's economic development has made obvious achievements in the rapid growth of GDP, which has contributed more and more to the growth of the world economy. At the same time, great breakthrough has been made in the development of import and export trade, the trade surplus has been maintained for many years, the total volume of trade has been continuously increasing year after year, and the high value-added and high-tech commodities in the export commodities have become the main export force. In today's economic globalization, China's economic growth is more and more affected by other countries in the world because of the increasingly close ties between countries and the increasing degree of interdependence. Foreign trade plays an increasingly important role in stimulating the economy of a country or region. Shandong Province, an open coastal province, has been among the leading provinces in terms of economic growth and foreign trade. In 2012, Shandong Province's total economic output reached 5 trillion yuan, while foreign trade totaled $245.54 billion. The influence of foreign trade on the economy of Shandong Province is increasing day by day, and it has become the key factor to support the rapid, stable and benign development of Shandong's national economy. Therefore, this paper studies and analyzes the relationship between the import and export trade of Shandong Province and the economic growth of Shandong Province, and explores the impact of foreign trade on economic growth. Not only can we see the current economic growth situation of Shandong Province and the overall development of foreign trade, but also we can find out that foreign trade is insufficient in promoting economic growth in Shandong Province, in order to further formulate relevant foreign trade policies. Legal measures to better promote economic and social development in Shandong Province to provide the basis. This paper first analyzes the GDP and total import and export of foreign trade in Shandong Province from 1987 to 2011 and analyzes the changes in the growth of Shandong Province from 1987 to 2011, and through the index of dependence on foreign trade, it can be concluded that the influence of foreign trade on economic growth in Shandong Province is strong or weak. In recent years, the dependence of foreign trade in Shandong Province has been maintained at more than 30%, it can be seen that foreign trade has an obvious pulling effect on the economic growth of Shandong Province. Through the analysis of foreign trade competitiveness index, we can see that the international competitiveness of Shandong import and export trade has been greatly improved. The paper also analyzes the structure of import and export commodities, the structure of trade mode, the main body of trade and the structure of foreign trade market. Then, based on the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in Shandong Province, quantitative analysis method is used. Firstly, the econometrics model, unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test and error correction model are introduced. Secondly, after using unit root to test the stability between foreign trade and economic growth in Shandong Province, we find out the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in Shandong Province by co-integration relationship test, and then pass Granger causality test. It can be seen that there is mutual promotion between foreign trade and economic growth in Shandong Province, so it can be determined that foreign trade in Shandong Province can play a very strong role in stimulating economic growth in Shandong Province. Third, through qualitative and quantitative analysis, we can see that foreign trade in Shandong Province can stimulate the rapid economic growth of Shandong Province, in order to make foreign trade and economic growth in Shandong Province achieve good growth. Finally, this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions, such as strengthening the independent innovation ability of enterprises, accelerating the upgrading of industrial structure, continuing to increase the export of high value-added and high-tech commodities, and perfecting the government's efforts to regulate and control the economy. To promote economic and social progress in Shandong Province.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F752.8

【参考文献】