中国环境政策、二氧化碳减排与经济低碳化路径的选择

发布时间：2018-08-04 17:37

【摘要】：二氧化碳减排是目前国际社会热议的话题之一，各国政府纷纷对本国的减排目标采取有关措施。我国将二氧化碳减排目标纳入社会发展长期规划，并试图通过环境政策来有效处理经济发展和环境问题之间的矛盾。本文首先概述了环境政策的有关经济学和生态学理论，为全文的分析奠定理论基础。其次，构建理论模型，通过模型分解分析了环境政策对二氧化碳减排的作用机理。再次，，建立两步回归模型，结合我国1995-2011年的指标数据，实证分析了我国环境政策对二氧化碳减排的作用。最后，根据实证结果，对我国经济低碳化路径的选择提出相应的政策建议。研究结果表明：（1）在经济增长背景下，1995-2011年我国二氧化碳排放的变化可以分解为经济规模效应、产业结构效应、技术进步效应和环境政策效应。经济规模效应导致二氧化碳排放的增加，而产业结构效应、技术进步效应和环境政策效应倾向于减少二氧化碳的排放和资源的消耗，表现出环境正效应。（2）1995-2002年、2002-2007年和2007-2011年3个阶段中，我国产业结构调整的出发点不是环境因素，却也在一定程度上削减了二氧化碳的排放；技术进步效应始终是二氧化碳减排的主要贡献因素，但其作用在逐渐减弱；环境政策效应对二氧化碳减排的作用日益凸显，我国环境政策的污染治理能力在稳步上升。（3）我国环境政策对二氧化碳减排的作用主要归因于环境污染治理投资，而环境政策结构和环境政策技术的二氧化碳减排效果不突出，有待于进一步改善和提高。
[Abstract]:Carbon dioxide emission reduction is one of the hot topics in the international community. In China, the goal of reducing carbon dioxide emissions is incorporated into the long-term planning of social development, and the contradiction between economic development and environmental problems is effectively dealt with through environmental policies. This paper first summarizes the economic and ecological theories of environmental policy, which lays a theoretical foundation for the analysis of the full text. Secondly, a theoretical model is constructed, and the mechanism of environmental policy on carbon dioxide emission reduction is analyzed by model decomposition. Thirdly, a two-step regression model is established and the effect of environmental policy on carbon dioxide emission reduction is analyzed empirically with the index data of China from 1995 to 2011. Finally, according to the empirical results, the paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations on the choice of economic low carbonization path in China. The results show that: (1) under the background of economic growth, the change of carbon dioxide emissions in China from 1995 to 2011 can be divided into economic scale effect, industrial structure effect, technological progress effect and environmental policy effect. Economic scale effects lead to an increase in carbon dioxide emissions, while industrial structure effects, technological progress effects and environmental policy effects tend to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and resource consumption, (2) in the three stages of 1995-2002, 2002-2007 and 2007-2011, the starting point of industrial structure adjustment in China is not environmental factor, but also reduce the carbon dioxide emission to a certain extent; Technology progress effect has always been the main contribution factor of carbon dioxide emission reduction, but its role is gradually weakening, environmental policy effect on carbon dioxide emission reduction effect is becoming increasingly prominent, The effect of environmental policy on carbon dioxide emission reduction is mainly attributed to the investment in environmental pollution control, but the effect of environmental policy structure and technology on carbon dioxide emission reduction is not outstanding, and the pollution control ability of environmental policy in China is increasing steadily. (3) the effect of environmental policy on carbon dioxide emission reduction is mainly attributed to the investment in environmental pollution control. Further improvement and improvement are needed.
【学位授予单位】：合肥工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F205;F124.5;X22

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