中国转轨时期经济周期波动影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-09-06 18:56

【摘要】：经济周期波动理论基于不同假定，得出的结论也各不相同。有的强调投资，，有的强调技术等等。总之，经济周期波动的原因在不同的理论中各不相同。美国国家经济研究局的米契尔在对经济周期问题的研究中，拒绝接受任何先验的理论，而是挑选出了一些可能导致经济周期的因素，力图通过对经验事实的不偏不倚的归纳分析找出经济周期的原理。受到米契尔的启发，本文也试图通过研究各种影响经济周期波动的因素，从而发现中国改革开放后的经济周期特点。改革开放以来，中国经济在高速增长的同时，也面临着周期性波动和不稳定的难题。本文试图研究我国改革开放以来经济周期波动的新特征，分析其波动的原因及其影响，这对于我们认识新形势下我国经济波动的客观规律，把握我国经济运行的发展态势，适时适度地采取宏观调控措施，保持国民经济高速、持续、协调发展无疑具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。本文从总需求、总供给等两个方面的经济变量来研究中国经济周期波动。总需求主要包括消费、投资和净出口，总供给主要包括劳动、资本存量。本文主要采用的研究方法是定性和定量相结合，突出定量分析。拟使用的计量方法主要包括时差相关系数、脉冲响应函数和Granger因果关系检验等。因果关系检验可以确定变量之间的因果方向，解释宏观经济系统的本质特征。脉冲响应函数是分析内生变量对系统的冲击效果。这些时间序列分析方法的运用，将为本文的实证分析提供良好的基础。本文主要采用时差相关系数、Granger因果关系分析、脉冲响应函数等时间序列方法来建立计量模型，并以此来分析各种经济因素对我国经济周期波动的影响。
[Abstract]:The theory of business cycle fluctuation is based on different assumptions, and the conclusions are different. Some emphasize investment, others emphasize technology and so on. In short, the reasons for cyclical fluctuations vary from theory to theory. In his study of the issue of the business cycle, Mitchell of the National Bureau of Economic Research rejected any transcendental theory and picked out some factors that might lead to the economic cycle. This paper tries to find out the principle of economic cycle through impartial inductive analysis of empirical facts. Inspired by Michele, this paper also tries to find out the characteristics of economic cycle after China's reform and opening up by studying various factors that affect the fluctuation of economic cycle. Since the reform and opening up, China's economy is growing at a high speed, but also facing periodic fluctuations and instability. This paper attempts to study the new characteristics of economic cycle fluctuation since the reform and opening up of our country, analyze the reason of its fluctuation and its influence, which is helpful for us to understand the objective law of our country's economic fluctuation under the new situation, and to grasp the development trend of our country's economic operation. It is undoubtedly of great theoretical and practical significance to take appropriate macro-control measures to maintain the high speed, sustained and coordinated development of the national economy. This paper studies the fluctuation of Chinese economic cycle from two aspects: aggregate demand and total supply. Total demand mainly includes consumption, investment and net export, total supply mainly includes labor, capital stock. The main research method used in this paper is the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis. The metrological methods to be used include time difference correlation coefficient, impulse response function and Granger causality test. Causality test can determine the causal direction between variables and explain the essential characteristics of macroeconomic system. The impulse response function is to analyze the impact effect of endogenous variables on the system. The application of these time series analysis methods will provide a good basis for the empirical analysis in this paper. In this paper, time series methods such as Granger causality analysis and impulse response function are used to establish the econometric model and to analyze the influence of various economic factors on the economic cycle fluctuations in China.
【学位授予单位】：东北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.8;F224

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