海上安全信息播发效益评估方法研究

发布时间：2018-06-06 17:20

本文选题：海上安全信息 + 收听率　；参考：《武汉理工大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来由于海上船舶艘次不断增加、船舶通信系统升级、船舶更新等条件的变化,海上安全信息播发方式也发生了相应的变化。这些因素都会对海上安全信息播发效益产生一定程度的影响,因而采用科学的方法正确合理的评价这种影响以及准确评估各种状况下的播发效益,是对海上安全的未来规划和设计过程中非常重要的参考依据。海上安全信息的综合收听率是指海事信息中心目标信息覆盖海域内,在某时段至少以一种方式收听海上安全信息的船舶艘次在该时段内全体停靠、通过目标海域的船舶艘次的比值。某种播发业务的收听率指某时段内,以该方式收听了海上安全信息的船舶艘次与该时段内停靠、通过目标海域的船舶艘次的比值。通过研究船舶收听率情况作为海上安全信息播发效益的重要参考依据,并为相关部门提供决策依据。本项目以研究海上安全信息播发效益为主要目标,从海岸电台播发的海上安全信息的类型入手,根据港口环境等因素对船舶影响的安全性分析、归纳总结各类信息的需求规律。采用海岸电台提供的电台播报信息、覆盖海域通行船舶总数等资料,利用调查问卷等方式进行基本数据搜集,根据收集到的数据,再进行分类统计分析,建立统计模型得出收听率,最后再建立预测模型进行收听率预测。本文从收集数据、资料入手,获取基本资料以及相关数据,对搜集的数据及其他资料进行科学的数据分析,通过统计记录船舶调查问卷信息,参照电视收视率研究出船舶收听率计算方式,利用统计学原理,通过统计历年来船舶收听率情况,根据海岸电台基本情况,研究出统计模型将将覆盖海域内各类型船舶收听率表示出来。根据所统计历史数据,分季度采用线性回归算法研究出预测模型,预测未来一年船舶收听率,并验证统计与预测结果的正确性。选用合适的编程语言、数据库及开发平台,将抽样模型、统计模型及预测模型等辅助功能在软件平台上实现其功能。为达到上述目的,综合设计并实现了一个集抽样调查、统计模型、预测模型及多种附加功能为一体的海上安全信息播发效益评估系统,并对系统进行了黑盒测试,具有较强的使用价值。
[Abstract]:In recent years, due to the increasing number of ships at sea, the upgrading of ship communication system and the change of ship renewal conditions, the mode of maritime safety information dissemination has also changed correspondingly. These factors will have a certain degree of impact on the effectiveness of maritime safety information dissemination. Therefore, scientific methods are used to correctly and reasonably evaluate this impact and accurately evaluate the broadcasting benefits under various conditions. It is a very important reference for the future planning and design of maritime safety. The comprehensive listening rate of maritime safety information refers to a ship whose target information covers the sea area and at least in one way listens to the maritime safety information in a certain period of time. The ratio of ships passing through the target sea area. The listening rate of a certain broadcasting service refers to the ratio of the number of ships that have listened to the maritime safety information in a certain period of time to the number of ships docked in that period and the ships passing through the target sea area. Through the study of ship listening rate as an important reference basis for the effectiveness of maritime safety information dissemination, and to provide a decision basis for relevant departments, the main objective of this project is to study the efficiency of maritime safety information dissemination. Starting with the types of maritime safety information broadcast by the coastal radio station and according to the safety analysis of the port environment and other factors, the requirements of various kinds of information are summarized and summarized. Using the radio station provided by the coast station to broadcast information, covering the total number of ships in the sea area, collecting basic data by means of questionnaires, and then carrying out classified statistical analysis according to the collected data. A statistical model is established to get the listening rate, and finally, a prediction model is built to predict the listening rate. This paper starts with collecting data and data, obtains basic data and related data, carries on scientific data analysis to the collected data and other materials, records the information of ship survey questionnaire through statistics, According to the television ratings, the calculation method of the ship listening rate is studied. By using the statistical principle, through the statistics of the ship listening rate over the years, according to the basic situation of the coastal radio station, The statistical model is developed to express the listening rate of each type of ship in the covered sea area. According to the statistical historical data, the prediction model is developed by using linear regression algorithm in each quarter, and the ship listening rate in the coming year is forecasted, and the correctness of the statistics and prediction results is verified. Selecting suitable programming language, database and development platform, the auxiliary functions of sampling model, statistical model and prediction model are realized on the software platform. In order to achieve the above purpose, a sample survey is designed and implemented synthetically. Statistical model, prediction model and multiple additional functions are used to evaluate the effectiveness of marine safety information dissemination. The system is tested in black box, which is of great practical value.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U698

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