基于终端区PBN飞行程序的安全评估
发布时间：2018-10-16 18:48
【摘要】：安全是民航的生命线，是民航永恒的主题。随着民航业的迅猛发展，空中交通流量不断增加，世界各国纷纷在终端区广泛设计并实施PBN飞行程序取代传统飞行程序运行，其运行的安全性亟待需要进行科学的、定量的安全评估。基于此，本文主要对终端区内PBN飞行程序运行时冲突风险场景进行识别，并针对风险场景建立飞行冲突风险计算模型进行定量风险分析。 本文针对进场阶段交叉或汇聚交通流飞行冲突、五边平行进近飞行冲突两个风险场景建立飞行冲突风险计算模型。在计算模型中建立了航空器沿PBN飞行程序标称航迹飞行时偏离标称航迹误差模型，在其中提出了一种基于布朗运动的随机过程来描述因干扰因素导致航空器随机运动的方法。因干扰因素与导航误差导致的标称航迹偏离量结合标称航迹合成航空器实际飞行四维轨迹，并基于实际飞行四维轨迹获得每时刻航空器之间的距离，，以此距离小于间隔标准而造成飞行冲突为判断标准来计算飞行冲突概率。本文最后依杭州萧山机场实施PBN飞行程序运行为案例，按照安全评估流程对PBN飞行程序运行进行安全评估。案例中使用HAZOP方法识别风险场景，并运用本文提到PBN飞行程序运行定量风险分析模型和Monte Carlo仿真方法计算飞行冲突概率，从而对风险场景进行定量风险分析。
[Abstract]:Safety is the lifeline of civil aviation and the eternal theme of civil aviation. With the rapid development of the civil aviation industry, the air traffic flow is increasing continuously. Many countries in the world have widely designed and implemented the PBN flight program to replace the traditional flight program in the terminal area. The safety of the flight procedure needs to be scientific. Quantitative safety assessment Based on this, this paper mainly identifies the conflict risk scene of PBN flight program running in terminal area, and establishes a flight conflict risk calculation model for the risk scenario to carry out quantitative risk analysis. In this paper, a flight conflict risk calculation model is established for cross or convergent traffic flow conflict in approach stage and two risk scenarios of parallel approach flight conflict. In this paper, the error model of aircraft deviating from the nominal track along the nominal track of PBN flight procedure is established. A stochastic process based on Brownian motion is proposed to describe the random motion of aircraft caused by interference factors. The nominal track deviation caused by interference factors and navigation errors combined with the nominal track to synthesize the actual flight four-dimensional trajectory of the aircraft, and based on the actual four-dimensional trajectory of flight to obtain the distance between the aircraft at each moment, The probability of flight conflict is calculated according to the criterion of flight conflict caused by the distance less than the interval standard. In the end, according to the case of PBN flight program running at Hangzhou Xiaoshan Airport, the safety evaluation of PBN flight procedure is carried out according to the safety evaluation procedure. In the case, the HAZOP method is used to identify the risk scenario, and the quantitative risk analysis model and Monte Carlo simulation method mentioned in this paper are used to calculate the flight conflict probability, thus the quantitative risk analysis of the risk scenario is carried out.
【学位授予单位】：南京航空航天大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：V328
本文编号：2275299
[Abstract]:Safety is the lifeline of civil aviation and the eternal theme of civil aviation. With the rapid development of the civil aviation industry, the air traffic flow is increasing continuously. Many countries in the world have widely designed and implemented the PBN flight program to replace the traditional flight program in the terminal area. The safety of the flight procedure needs to be scientific. Quantitative safety assessment Based on this, this paper mainly identifies the conflict risk scene of PBN flight program running in terminal area, and establishes a flight conflict risk calculation model for the risk scenario to carry out quantitative risk analysis. In this paper, a flight conflict risk calculation model is established for cross or convergent traffic flow conflict in approach stage and two risk scenarios of parallel approach flight conflict. In this paper, the error model of aircraft deviating from the nominal track along the nominal track of PBN flight procedure is established. A stochastic process based on Brownian motion is proposed to describe the random motion of aircraft caused by interference factors. The nominal track deviation caused by interference factors and navigation errors combined with the nominal track to synthesize the actual flight four-dimensional trajectory of the aircraft, and based on the actual four-dimensional trajectory of flight to obtain the distance between the aircraft at each moment, The probability of flight conflict is calculated according to the criterion of flight conflict caused by the distance less than the interval standard. In the end, according to the case of PBN flight program running at Hangzhou Xiaoshan Airport, the safety evaluation of PBN flight procedure is carried out according to the safety evaluation procedure. In the case, the HAZOP method is used to identify the risk scenario, and the quantitative risk analysis model and Monte Carlo simulation method mentioned in this paper are used to calculate the flight conflict probability, thus the quantitative risk analysis of the risk scenario is carried out.
【学位授予单位】：南京航空航天大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：V328
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相关期刊论文 前2条
1 苏志刚;眭聪聪;吴仁彪;;基于概率模型的ATC系统冲突目标生成算法[J];信号处理;2011年10期
2 王超;孙岩;;仪表飞行程序运行安全性评价模型与仿真分析[J];中国民航大学学报;2011年02期
本文编号：2275299
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