受限水域船舶积压风险测度方法研究

发布时间：2018-05-02 12:37

本文选题：安全工程 + 受限水域　；参考：《安全与环境学报》2017年01期

【摘要】：为了系统、客观地评估受限水域船舶积压衍生风险,实现对船舶积压风险的防控,进行船舶积压风险测度方法的研究。阐述了受限水域船舶积压风险的3种表现形式,提炼了风险表现形式的测评指标,提出了受限水域船舶积压指数,并建立了以二元Logistic回归为核心的风险测度模型,对积压风险测评指标进行量化处理,最后通过对三峡-葛洲坝枢纽船舶积压风险的实证分析验证测度方法的可行性。结果表明,受限水域船舶积压风险测度方法可以根据水域特征筛选积压风险主要测评指标,并最终得到积压衍生风险发生概率预测公式,预测并判断相应水域某一时期的船舶积压衍生风险严重程度,对实时测度和降低受限水域船舶积压风险、完善受限水域船舶通航安全预警和相关软件开发运用具有重要意义。
[Abstract]:In order to evaluate the risk of ship backlog in restricted waters objectively, to realize the prevention and control of ship backlog risk, and to study the method of ship backlog risk measurement. This paper expounds three kinds of expression forms of ship backlog risk in restricted waters, refines the evaluation index of risk expression form, puts forward ship backlog index in restricted waters, and establishes a risk measurement model with binary Logistic regression as the core. Finally, the feasibility of the measurement method is verified by the empirical analysis of the ship backlog risk of the TGP-Gezhouba hub. The results show that the method of ship backlog risk measurement in restricted waters can screen the main evaluation indexes of backlog risk according to the characteristics of the waters and finally obtain the probability prediction formula for the occurrence of backlog derivative risk. It is of great significance to predict and judge the severity of ship backlog and derivative risk in the corresponding waters in a certain period, to measure and reduce the risk of ship backlog in restricted waters in real time, to improve ship navigable safety early warning and to develop and apply related software in restricted waters.
【作者单位】：武汉理工大学交通学院国家水运安全工程技术研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51379171)
【分类号】：U698

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