基于扩展Kaya恒等式的中国碳排放强度分解研究

发布时间：2018-05-15 20:34

本文选题：碳强度 + Kaya等式　；参考：《华北电力大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着全球平均温度的不断上升,气候变暖问题逐渐演变为人类当前面临的重大环境问题之一。作为当今世上最大的发展中国家,国际对我国碳排放问题的关注持续升温。我国现已步入工业化发展的中后期阶段,工业重型化明显,经济发展对能源的依赖达到前所未有的程度,经济发展方式粗放。尽管如此,我国仍然公开在哥本哈根气候大会上做出承诺:2020年中国的碳排放强度要比2005年下降40-45%。对我国碳排放强度的影响因素有利于促进中国经济发展模式转型,降低碳强度。本研究从生产部门和居民消费两个角度出发,对Kaya等式进行扩展,构建碳强度LMDI模型,从经济发展、能源结构、能源强度等方面对中国的碳排放强度影响因素进行分析,并依据本文研究结论提出降低碳强度的政策建议。本文首先根据能源消费数据测算了我国1995-2011年的碳排放量,并对其变化趋势进行了分析,碳排放量迅速增加的原因主要是煤炭为主的一次能源消费结构和工业为主的产业结构;接着,本文利用Kaya等式和LMDI分解法,从生产部门和居民生活两个方面构建中国碳强度的因素分解模型,并根据中国1995-2011年有关数据分析了能源结构、能源强度、经济发展等因素对于中国碳强度变化的影响,识别出中国1995年以来的生产部门碳强度变化的主要驱动因素和抑制因素分别是产业结构因素和能源强度因素,且抑制作用大于驱动因素,而居民消费碳强度变化的主要驱动因素和抑制因素分别是经济发展因素和居民消费能源强度因素,且驱动作用大于抑制作用;最后,本文根据分析结果提出了有效降低中国碳强度的对策建议。
[Abstract]:With the rising of global average temperature, global warming is becoming one of the most important environmental problems. As the largest developing country in the world, international attention to China's carbon emissions has been increasing. Our country has entered the middle and late stage of industrialization development, the heavy industry is obvious, the dependence of economic development on energy has reached an unprecedented degree, and the mode of economic development is extensive. Nevertheless, China made a public pledge at the Copenhagen Climate Conference that China's carbon intensity will be 40-45% lower by 2020 than in 2005. The influencing factors of carbon emission intensity in China are conducive to the transformation of China's economic development model and the reduction of carbon intensity. In this study, the Kaya equation is expanded from the perspective of production sector and resident consumption, and the carbon intensity LMDI model is constructed. The factors affecting China's carbon emission intensity are analyzed from the aspects of economic development, energy structure, energy intensity, and so on. According to the conclusion of this paper, the policy recommendations of reducing carbon intensity are put forward. In this paper, the carbon emissions from 1995 to 2011 in China are calculated according to the energy consumption data, and its changing trend is analyzed. The main reasons for the rapid increase of carbon emissions are the primary energy consumption structure based on coal and the industrial structure. Then, using Kaya equation and LMDI decomposition method, this paper constructs the factor decomposition model of carbon intensity in China from two aspects of production sector and resident life, and analyzes the energy structure and energy intensity according to the relevant data of China from 1995 to 2011. The influence of economic development and other factors on the change of carbon intensity in China has been recognized. The main driving factors and restraining factors of carbon intensity change in China's production sector since 1995 are industrial structure factors and energy intensity factors, respectively. And the inhibition effect is greater than the driving factor, and the main driving factor and the restraining factor of the change of the resident consumption carbon intensity are the economic development factor and the resident consumption energy intensity factor respectively, and the driving effect is bigger than the inhibitory effect; finally, Based on the results of the analysis, the countermeasures and suggestions for reducing carbon intensity in China are put forward in this paper.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X321

【相似文献】