基于匝道区数据的恶劣天气下换道行为研究

发布时间：2018-04-16 12:04

本文选题：恶劣天气 + 匝道区　；参考：《西南交通大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：恶劣天气对于驾驶员的心理和视线都会造成极大的影响,同时还会使路面附着力相应减小,降低机动车的制动性、操作稳定性,导致车辆打滑或者侧滑,发生事故的机率也相应增大。换道行为是微观交通仿真的一部分,对交通流运行的干扰很大,是产生交通拥挤的重要原因,而恶劣天气下的换道行为呈现更加复杂的状态。由于匝道区交织段的存在,匝道区的交通状况较路段复杂,其换道行为也相应增多,能够获取较多的换道数据。因此本文以匝道区为研究背景,基于匝道区的数据对恶劣天气下的换道行为进行了研究,一方面将有利于微观交通仿真的进一步发展,同时也会为今后相关交通政策的制定提供可靠的理论基础。本文选择成都市某一匝道区采用视频法对所需数据进行调查,并引入了天气影响因子,根据随机效用理论进行了恶劣天气下的换道行为研究,主要内容包括以下几个方面：定性和定量分析了恶劣天气对于驾驶员和车辆以及对于道路交通流的影响。结合间隙接受理论,引入了天气影响因子,并以效用最大化为原则建立了恶劣天气影响下的驾驶员换道行为的离散选择模型,包括目标车道选择模型和间隙接受模型；视频记录驾驶员在匝道区的行车轨迹,利用人工统计的方法提取所拍摄图像中的换道数据,结合道路交通规则以及本文的研究内容对数据进行筛选整理,提取出影响驾驶员换道行为的特性变量数据,并对提取后的数据进行初步分析；依据所采集的换道数据,利用最大似然函数法对恶劣天气和正常天气下换道模型进行参数的标定和检验,证实模型的精度较高。根据所标定的模型参数,对天气影响因子以及两种天气下相应换道行为的差异进行详细分析,并对比分析出两种天气下换道所需临界间隙的变化规律。
[Abstract]:Bad weather will have a great impact on the driver's psychology and line of sight. At the same time, it will also reduce the road surface adhesion, reduce the braking ability of the motor vehicle, reduce the operational stability, and cause the vehicle to skid or slip on the side.The probability of an accident also increases accordingly.The change behavior is a part of microscopic traffic simulation, which interferes with the traffic flow greatly and is an important cause of traffic congestion. However, the change behavior in bad weather presents a more complex state.Because of the existence of intertwined section of ramp area, the traffic condition of ramp area is more complicated than that of road section, and its changing behavior is increasing accordingly, so more data can be obtained.Therefore, based on the ramp area data, this paper studies the traffic change behavior in severe weather based on the ramp area. On the one hand, it will be conducive to the further development of microscopic traffic simulation.At the same time, it will also provide a reliable theoretical basis for the formulation of related transport policies in the future.In this paper, a certain ramp area in Chengdu is selected to investigate the needed data by video method, and the weather influence factor is introduced. According to the random utility theory, the research on the behavior of changing roads in bad weather is carried out. The main contents include the following aspects:The effects of bad weather on drivers and vehicles as well as on road traffic flow are analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively.Combined with gap acceptance theory, the weather influence factor is introduced, and the discrete selection model of driver's changing behavior under the influence of bad weather is established based on the principle of utility maximization, including target lane selection model and gap acceptance model.Video recording the driver's track in the ramp area, using artificial statistics method to extract the data from the captured image, combined with the road traffic rules and the research content of this paper to filter the data.The characteristic variable data which affect the driver's changing behavior are extracted, and the extracted data are analyzed preliminarily.According to the collected data, the maximum likelihood function method is used to calibrate and test the parameters of the model in bad weather and normal weather, and it is proved that the precision of the model is high.According to the calibrated model parameters, the difference of the weather influence factors and the corresponding changing behavior of the two kinds of weather is analyzed in detail, and the variation law of the critical gap required for the change of the channel under the two weather conditions is compared and analyzed.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491.25

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