基于元胞自动机的公交线路建模与优化研究

发布时间：2018-06-04 21:30

本文选题：公交线路 + 元胞自动机　；参考：《北京交通大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：经济的快速发展导致了我国城镇化水平和机动车保有量的迅速提升,交通拥堵也因此成为制约大中型城市可持续发展的主要瓶颈。基于以往的实践经验,大力发展公共交通系统是一项缓解交通拥堵问题的有效措施。然而,地面常规公共交通在实际运营中也呈现出了如串车、载客率不均匀、准时性低等问题,所以为了解决公交运营中出现的问题,对常规公共交通系统进行建模和运行优化的探究工作是非常必要的。论文选用元胞自动机模型以构建公交线路系统,并对单条公交线路、双条共线公交线路运行特征、规律以及公交线路运行优化进行了探讨和分析。论文的主要工作如下： (1)在NaSch模型的基础上,建立了考虑乘客出行起讫点分布的公交线路系统的元胞自动机模型。利用三个指标：公交车辆发车时间间隔、公交车辆最大载客量、乘客的到达概率,可以计算出公交线路系统的供需大小关系；在此基础上可以得到公交系统的供需平衡线。 (2)对单条公交线路进行建模和仿真,当以公交车辆发车时间间隔和乘客到达率为判定公交系统运行特性的参数时,仿真结果发现系统存在6种相位状态：拥堵、串车、均匀状态,以及每种状态下对应的供能充足和供能不足的两种细分状态。此外,还发现公交系统的平均速度和车辆载客率都较高的情况存在于系统的供需平衡线附近。最后,通过对单线北京公交线路的GPS数据的处理,定性地验证了模型仿真的结果。 (3)对双条共线公交线路进行建模和仿真,发现空间因素(共线站点的个数和位置)和运营因素(公交车辆的发车时间间隔和乘客到达概率)与单线路系统相比,对共线线路的运行特性没有明显的影响。通过设置换乘方式探讨了需求因素的影响,仿真结果发现：通过增加公交车辆的发车频率和相对较多数量的共线站点,乘客的候车时间明显减少了；通过增加共线站点的数量,公交车辆在共线站点的停靠时间能明显减少。最后,通过对共线的两条北京公交GPS数据的处理,定性地验证了模型仿真的结果。
[Abstract]:The rapid development of economy has led to the rapid increase of the level of urbanization and the number of motor vehicles in China, and traffic congestion has become the main bottleneck restricting the sustainable development of large and medium-sized cities. Based on previous practical experience, developing public transport system is an effective measure to alleviate traffic congestion. However, in the actual operation of conventional public transport on the ground, there are also some problems, such as train strings, uneven passenger loading rate, low punctuality, and so on, so in order to solve the problems in the operation of public transport, It is necessary to explore the modeling and operation optimization of conventional public transportation system. In this paper, the cellular automata model is selected to construct the bus line system, and the operation characteristics, rules and operation optimization of the single bus line and the double collinear bus line are discussed and analyzed. The main work of the thesis is as follows: 1) based on the NaSch model, the cellular automata model of the bus line system considering the distribution of passenger travel starting points is established. Using three indexes: the departure time interval of public transport vehicle, the maximum carrying capacity of public transport vehicle, the arrival probability of passengers, the size of supply and demand of bus line system can be calculated, and on this basis, the supply and demand balance line of bus system can be obtained. (2) Modeling and simulation of a single bus line. When the departure time interval and passenger arrival rate are taken as the parameters to determine the operating characteristics of the bus system, the simulation results show that the system has six phase states: congestion, train string, and so on. Uniform state and two subdivision states of sufficient and insufficient energy supply in each state. In addition, it is found that the average speed and the vehicle carrying rate of the public transport system are high near the supply and demand balance line of the system. Finally, the model simulation results are qualitatively verified by processing the GPS data of single line Beijing bus line. (3) Modeling and simulation of double collinear bus lines, it is found that spatial factors (number and location of collinear stations) and operational factors (bus departure time interval and passenger arrival probability) are compared with single line system. There is no obvious effect on the operating characteristics of collinear lines. The influence of demand factors is discussed by setting transfer mode. The simulation results show that by increasing the departure frequency of public transport vehicles and a relatively large number of common-line stations, the waiting time of passengers is obviously reduced; by increasing the number of common-line stations, the number of common-line stations is increased. Bus vehicles in the collinear stop time can be significantly reduced. Finally, the model simulation results are qualitatively verified by processing the GPS data of two common lines of Beijing bus.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491.17

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