基于贝叶斯网络模型的两轮车骑车人损伤风险研究
发布时间：2018-10-20 11:43
【摘要】：在各类道路交通碰撞事故中，汽车与自行车、电动两轮车等两轮车碰撞事故发生率逐渐增高。而且由于两轮车骑车人没有车身保护，在道路交通中属弱势群体，易受伤，死亡率相对较高，预防和减少两轮车事故中骑车人的损伤，已成为国内外专家学者研究的重点课题。目前，，对于汽车与两轮车事故中骑车人的损伤分析研究，大多是基于人、车、路及环境，进行单因素，孤立化分析，故其研究和分析方法不具有普适性。 本文在道路交通事故致因分析的基础上，开展汽车与两轮车碰撞事故致因研究，并将其与贝叶斯网络方法结合，进行汽车与两轮车碰撞事故的骑车人损伤风险研究。考虑到两轮车碰撞事故的复杂性与多样性，本文选取和整理了2001年至2010年间长沙地区2094起汽车与两轮车碰撞事故样本数据，同时研究了导致汽车—两轮车碰撞事故发生的人、车、路及环境四方面因素，进而确定出四类因素具体种类及事故发生情况。随后，基于人-车-道路-环境耦合系统，进行综合、深入化的多因素分析研究，建立汽车与两轮车碰撞事故的贝叶斯网络模型，得出导致两轮车碰撞事故发生的致因链条。最后，根据模型推理结果，找出事故发生的关键控制点，为预防和减少长沙地区两轮车碰撞事故骑车人损伤风险提出相应的安全管理措施。 本文的研究成果对长沙地区汽车与两轮车碰撞事故的预防具有一定的指导意义，可为相关部门采取科学的预防措施和合理的救治策略提供合理的依据。同时，采用的贝叶斯网络方法对其他类型的碰撞事故风险研究具有一定的借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:In all kinds of road traffic accidents, the rate of collision between cars and bicycles, electric two-wheeled vehicles and other two-wheeled vehicles is increasing gradually. Because the two-wheeled cyclists have no body protection, they are vulnerable to injury, and the mortality rate is relatively high in road traffic. Therefore, preventing and reducing the injuries caused by bikers in two-wheeled accidents has become a key research topic of experts and scholars at home and abroad. At present, most of the research on the damage of cyclists in automobile and two-wheeled vehicle accidents is based on human, vehicle, road and environment, which is based on single factor and isolated analysis, so its research and analysis method is not universal. Based on the analysis of the cause of road traffic accident, this paper studies the cause of vehicle and two-wheel vehicle collision accident, and combines it with Bayesian network method to study the risk of vehicle and two-wheeled vehicle collision accident. Considering the complexity and diversity of two-wheeled vehicle collision accident, this paper selects and collates the sample data of 2094 vehicle and two-wheeled vehicle collision accidents in Changsha from 2001 to 2010, and studies the people who caused the vehicle-two-wheeled vehicle collision accident. Car, road and environment factors, and then determine the specific types of four factors and accident occurrence. Then, based on the human-vehicle-road-environment coupling system, the Bayesian network model of vehicle and two-wheeled vehicle collision accident is established, and the cause chain of the two-wheeled vehicle collision accident is obtained. Finally, according to the result of the model reasoning, the key control points of the accident are found out, and the corresponding safety management measures are put forward to prevent and reduce the injury risk of the cyclists in the two-wheel collision accident in Changsha area. The research results of this paper have certain guiding significance for the prevention of automobile and two-wheeled vehicle collision accident in Changsha area, and can provide reasonable basis for the relevant departments to take scientific preventive measures and reasonable rescue strategies. At the same time, the Bayesian network method can be used for reference to other types of collision accident risk research.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491.31
本文编号：2283068
[Abstract]:In all kinds of road traffic accidents, the rate of collision between cars and bicycles, electric two-wheeled vehicles and other two-wheeled vehicles is increasing gradually. Because the two-wheeled cyclists have no body protection, they are vulnerable to injury, and the mortality rate is relatively high in road traffic. Therefore, preventing and reducing the injuries caused by bikers in two-wheeled accidents has become a key research topic of experts and scholars at home and abroad. At present, most of the research on the damage of cyclists in automobile and two-wheeled vehicle accidents is based on human, vehicle, road and environment, which is based on single factor and isolated analysis, so its research and analysis method is not universal. Based on the analysis of the cause of road traffic accident, this paper studies the cause of vehicle and two-wheel vehicle collision accident, and combines it with Bayesian network method to study the risk of vehicle and two-wheeled vehicle collision accident. Considering the complexity and diversity of two-wheeled vehicle collision accident, this paper selects and collates the sample data of 2094 vehicle and two-wheeled vehicle collision accidents in Changsha from 2001 to 2010, and studies the people who caused the vehicle-two-wheeled vehicle collision accident. Car, road and environment factors, and then determine the specific types of four factors and accident occurrence. Then, based on the human-vehicle-road-environment coupling system, the Bayesian network model of vehicle and two-wheeled vehicle collision accident is established, and the cause chain of the two-wheeled vehicle collision accident is obtained. Finally, according to the result of the model reasoning, the key control points of the accident are found out, and the corresponding safety management measures are put forward to prevent and reduce the injury risk of the cyclists in the two-wheel collision accident in Changsha area. The research results of this paper have certain guiding significance for the prevention of automobile and two-wheeled vehicle collision accident in Changsha area, and can provide reasonable basis for the relevant departments to take scientific preventive measures and reasonable rescue strategies. At the same time, the Bayesian network method can be used for reference to other types of collision accident risk research.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491.31
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