莎车巴旦姆物候期对气象条件的响应及花期预测模型

发布时间：2018-04-13 19:19

  本文选题：巴旦姆 + 物候期　； 参考：《应用生态学报》2016年02期

【摘要】：利用莎车县农业气象试验站2008—2013年巴旦姆物候期和同期气象观测资料,分析了巴旦姆物候期的变化特征以及气温、日照时数对物候期的影响.结果表明:巴旦姆花期之前的物候期始日之间均呈正相关,与花期之后的物候期始日的相关性大多较小,花芽膨大早迟与休眠期、生长期天数分别呈极显著的正相关和负相关.以果实成熟期为界,气温对之前、之后物候期间隔日数的影响分别为负相关和正相关,日照时数与物候期间隔日数大多为正相关.果实成熟-叶变色始期间隔日数对平均最高气温以及花序出现-开花末期、叶变色始期-落叶末期间隔日数对日照时数存在明显的响应.当巴旦姆休眠期符合日平均气温-3.0~-7.5℃的天数满30 d后,经过17~28 d将进入花芽萌动期.花芽萌动期、开花始期、叶变色始期和落叶末期的始日分别与首个候平均气温≥4℃且候平均最高气温≥12℃、春季侯平均气温≥14℃且侯平均最高气温≥22℃、秋季首个侯平均气温≤10℃且侯平均最高气温≤18℃和冬季首个侯平均气温≤1.9℃的候序一一对应.利用偏最小二乘法回归分析,建立巴旦姆盛花期始日预测模型,经过检验模型效果较好.
[Abstract]:Based on the meteorological observation data of Badam period and the same period from 2008 to 2013, the variation characteristics of Badam phenology and the effects of temperature and sunshine hours on the phenological period were analyzed by using the meteorological observation data of Shaqa County Agrometeorological Test Station from 2008 to 2013.The results showed that there was a positive correlation between the beginning of phenological period before anthesis and a small correlation with the beginning day of phenological period after flowering. There was a very significant positive correlation and negative correlation between flower bud enlargement and dormancy period and days of growth period respectively.The effect of temperature on the number of days before and after the phenological period was negatively and positively correlated respectively, and the sunshine hours were mostly positively correlated with the number of alternate days during the phenological period.The number of alternate days during fruit maturation and leaf discoloration was significantly related to the mean maximum temperature, the appearance of inflorescence and the end of flowering, and the number of days between the beginning of leaf discoloration and the end of deciduous leaves to the sunshine hours.When the dormancy period of Badam was in accordance with the daily mean temperature of -3.0 ~ 7.5 鈩，

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