基于资源环境承载力的四川省耕地保有量预测研究

发布时间：2018-04-14 07:09

本文选题：资源环境 + 耕地保有量　；参考：《四川师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：资源短缺和环境超载所带来的制约区域发展的问题,是我国进入新型工业化、城镇化和农业现代化时期所面临的巨大挑战。区域的资源环境承载能力是有限的,了解区域当前的资源环境承载状况、预测区域未来的承载能力,对于协调区域的经济、社会、资源与环境的可持续发展有着至关重要的作用。本文通过对四川省当前耕地保有量现状和区域资源环境承载状况分析后,从土地资源、水资源和大气环境三方面选取粮食供给量、常住人口数量、供水总量、二氧化硫排放量等指标,用灰色系统模型和ARIMA模型预测四川省及辖区内18个城市2020年资源环境的人口承载规模,然后从结果中寻找制约人口承载规模的短板,最终计算出四川省2020年的耕地保有量,并根据制约短板,提出相应的有针对性的保护和提高耕地保有量对策与建议。研究结论如下:(1)四川省2020年耕地保有量预测结果为530.97×104hm2,三项资源环境承载状况为土地资源水资源大气环境,大气环境的承载力最低,承载状况为临界,为制约区域最大人口承载规模的短板要素,表示四川省未来大气环境污染状况将持续加重;土地资源承载状态为富余,远超于区域预测人口数,表示未来四川省粮食供应量十分充足;水资源承载状况为临界,表示未来四川省水资源供应量一般,供应量略少于需求量。(2)四川省的18个城市中,土地资源承载状况处于平衡以下的城市有4个,水资源承载状况处于平衡以下的城市有4个,大气环境承载状况处于平衡以下的城市有10个。大气环境依然是制约大多数城市未来人口承载规模的关键要素,将近56%的城市的大气环境承载人口数量超标,需要得到改善;虽然四川省整体粮食供应量十分充裕,但是一些工业城市如成都、攀枝花等城市的粮食依然依赖周围城市的调配与补给;同样地,工业城市中工业用水量巨大,水资源所承载人口也超出了实际承载能力。德阳市和广元市处于三项承载力都为富余的状态,未来可以大力提高经济发展速度,其他城市都有至少一项来自资源环境的压力。(3)本研究从资源环境承载人口能力的角度出发预测耕地保有量,实现了土地、水、大气、人口等因素的耦合,以区域承载力最低的要素所承载的人口作为区域实际人口数量,是既确保区域资源环境要素在承载范围内、又保证区域资源环境供经济可持续发展的人口数,预测结果与《四川省土地利用总体规划(2006-2020)》接近,为省级耕地保有量预测研究提供了方法理论。
[Abstract]:The shortage of resources and the overloading of environment are the great challenges that our country faces in the period of new industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization.The carrying capacity of regional resources and environment is limited. Understanding the current carrying capacity of resources and environment in the region, predicting the future carrying capacity of the region, is of great importance to the coordination of regional economy and society.The sustainable development of resources and environment plays an important role.After analyzing the current situation of cultivated land conservation and regional resource and environment carrying capacity in Sichuan Province, this paper selects grain supply, permanent resident population and total water supply from three aspects of land resources, water resources and atmospheric environment.Using grey system model and ARIMA model to predict the population carrying scale of resource and environment in Sichuan province and 18 cities in the area of jurisdiction in 2020, and then looking for the short board of restricting population carrying scale from the result.Finally, the amount of cultivated land in Sichuan province in 2020 is calculated, and the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for protecting and improving the amount of cultivated land are put forward according to the restriction board.The results of the study are as follows: (1) the forecast result of cultivated land quantity in Sichuan Province in 2020 is 530.97 脳 10 ~ 4hm ~ (2). The three conditions of carrying resources and environment are land resources, water resources, atmosphere environment, and atmospheric environment. The bearing capacity of atmospheric environment is the lowest, and the bearing capacity is critical.In order to restrict the short board elements of the largest population carrying scale in the region, it is indicated that the atmospheric environmental pollution in Sichuan Province will continue to increase in the future, and the bearing status of the land resources is surplus, which far exceeds the population number predicted in the region.Indicating that the future Sichuan Province will have an adequate grain supply; that the carrying capacity of water resources is critical, indicating that the future Sichuan Province's water resources supply is general, and that the supply is slightly less than the demand.) of the 18 cities in Sichuan Province,There are 4 cities with land resources bearing status below equilibrium, 4 cities with water resources bearing status below equilibrium, and 10 cities with atmospheric environment bearing status below equilibrium.The atmospheric environment is still the key factor that restricts the population carrying capacity in most cities in the future. Nearly 56 percent of the cities have overloaded population and need to be improved; although the overall food supply in Sichuan Province is abundant,But some industrial cities such as Chengdu, Panzhihua and other cities still rely on the allocation and supply of the surrounding cities. Similarly, the industrial water consumption in industrial cities is huge, and the population of water resources is more than the actual carrying capacity.Deyang City and Guangyuan City are in a state where the three bearing capacities are all surplus. In the future, they can greatly improve the speed of economic development.Other cities have at least one item of pressure from the resources and environment.) this study predicts the amount of cultivated land from the perspective of the capacity of the resources and environment to carry population, and realizes the coupling of land, water, atmosphere, population, and other factors.Taking the population carried by the lowest element of regional carrying capacity as the actual population of the region, it is not only to ensure that the elements of regional resources and environment are within the carrying range, but also to ensure that the regional resources and environment can be used for sustainable economic development.The prediction results are close to that of the General Plan for Land use in Sichuan Province (2006-2020), which provides a method and theory for the prediction of cultivated land conservation at the provincial level.
【学位授予单位】：四川师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.211

【参考文献】