基于相对湿润度指数的河南省干旱易发区预测

发布时间：2018-10-17 20:21

【摘要】：鉴于河南省干旱灾害时有发生,严重影响了其农业生产,选择能够反映农作物水分供需平衡的相对湿润度指数作为干旱评价指标,以春、初夏、伏、秋季为时间尺度评价了河南省典型年份的干旱事件,并与历史干旱记载进行对比,发现以春、初夏、伏、秋为时间尺度的相对湿润度指数在河南省具有较好的适用性。在此基础上,预测了不同气候变化情景下河南省的干旱易发区。结果表明,春和初夏季是河南省最容易发生干旱的两个季节;空间分布上,未来干旱易发区主要分布在河南省北部,在两种气候情景设置下,安阳、新乡、郑州、商丘、开封、宝丰、三门峡、许昌等地市均发生干旱事件,因此应重视以上地市的防旱抗旱工作。
[Abstract]:In view of the fact that drought disasters occur from time to time in Henan Province and seriously affect its agricultural production, the relative wetness index, which can reflect the balance of water supply and demand of crops, is chosen as the evaluation index of drought in spring, early summer and summer. The drought events in typical years of Henan Province were evaluated on the time scale of autumn and compared with the historical drought records. It was found that the relative wetness index with the time scale of spring, early summer, volt and autumn had good applicability in Henan Province. On this basis, the drought prone areas of Henan Province under different climate change scenarios are predicted. The results show that spring and early summer are the two most prone seasons for drought in Henan Province, and the future drought prone areas are mainly distributed in the northern part of Henan Province in the spatial distribution. Under two climate scenarios, Anyang, Xinxiang, Zhengzhou, Shangqiu, Kaifeng, Anyang, Xinxiang, Zhengzhou, Shangqiu, Kaifeng, Henan Province, China. Baofeng, Sanmenxia, Xuchang and other cities have drought events, so we should pay attention to drought prevention and drought.
【作者单位】：河南省水利勘测设计研究有限公司;中国水利水电科学研究院;
【分类号】：S423

【相似文献】