基于模糊影响图的工程索赔风险评价及管理研究

发布时间：2019-01-10 14:32

【摘要】：工程索赔风险管理涉及技术、法律和经济等众多专业学科知识，它是一门理论性和实践性都非常强的学问。国内建筑企业对比国外同行，在索赔风险管理方面，不管是理论上还是实践上都还存在一定的差距。索赔风险伴随着项目实施而产生，是工程风险管理中的重要组成部分。本文首先阐述了工程索赔和工程风险管理理论，同时从风险识别、风险评价、风险控制等方面对工程索赔风险进行了分析和研究。通过对工程索赔风险因素的分析，，本文建立了相应的风险评价体系，并构建了基于模糊影响图理论的索赔风险评价模型，最后通过工程实例验证了该评价模型的系统性和可行性。结合影响图模型对工程索赔风险进行综合评价，确定索赔额相对于中标合同价的增加幅度，以此为参考，提出工程索赔风险管理策略。同时，本文指出在工程实施过程中应加强风险管理，合理掌控工程索赔风险，并采取主动措施，使用回避、分散或转移等方法和技术妥善地处理可能产生的不利后果，由此对索赔风险事件实施有效控制，降低其对项目建设的影响。索赔风险的识别和分析也为索赔管理提供了重要依据，有助于承包商开展对业主方的索赔工作，通过有效的索赔减少经济上的损失，以合理的成本保证预定目标的实现。论文的研究成果能够对工程索赔风险管理起到一定的借鉴作用，并有利于实现企业利益最大化。模糊影响图法有效的克服了传统风险分析方法在建模上的缺陷，同时也克服了实际工程背景下要获取不确定因素发生概率的困难，是一种应用前景广阔的索赔风险评价方法。考虑到工程项目的阶段性特征，对于多阶段结点的模糊影响图理论方法还需作出进一步研究。
[Abstract]:Engineering claim risk management involves many professional knowledge, such as technology, law and economics. It is a very theoretical and practical knowledge. Compared with their counterparts abroad, domestic construction enterprises still have a certain gap in claim risk management both in theory and in practice. Claim risk is an important part of project risk management. In this paper, the theory of engineering claim and engineering risk management is first expounded, and the risk of engineering claim is analyzed and studied from the aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk control and so on. By analyzing the risk factors of engineering claim, this paper establishes the corresponding risk evaluation system, and constructs a claim risk evaluation model based on fuzzy impact diagram theory. Finally, the system and feasibility of the evaluation model are verified by an engineering example. Combined with the influence diagram model, the comprehensive evaluation of engineering claim risk is carried out, and the increase of claim amount relative to the contract price of the winning bid is determined, and the risk management strategy of engineering claim is put forward for reference. At the same time, this paper points out that the risk management should be strengthened in the process of project implementation, the risk of claim for engineering should be reasonably controlled, and active measures should be taken to properly deal with the possible adverse consequences by using methods and techniques such as avoidance, dispersion or transfer. Thus, the claim risk events are effectively controlled and the impact on project construction is reduced. The identification and analysis of claim risk also provide an important basis for claim management, which is helpful for the contractor to carry out the claim work against the owner, reduce the economic loss through effective claims, and ensure the realization of the predetermined goal with reasonable cost. The research results of this paper can be used for reference to the risk management of engineering claims and help to maximize the interests of enterprises. The fuzzy impact diagram method overcomes the defects of the traditional risk analysis method in modeling, and it also overcomes the difficulty of obtaining the probability of uncertain factors under the background of practical engineering. It is a widely applied risk assessment method for claims. Considering the stage characteristics of engineering projects, the theory and method of fuzzy influence diagram of multi-stage nodes need to be further studied.
【学位授予单位】：长沙理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU723

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