压气站增压系统风险评价方法研究

发布时间：2018-03-25 01:17

本文选题：压气站　切入点：增压系统　出处：《西南石油大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：增压系统作为压气站的核心组成部分,在整个输气管道系统中承担着给天然气增压的重要任务,它的安全与否直接关系到管道是否能保质、保量、按时向下游用户提供天然气。目前国内外还没有建立起针对压气站增压系统的系统风险评价方法,因此,对压气站增压系统进行风险评价方法研究,对于保障压气站增压系统的安全运行意义重大。由于增压系统结构复杂,各个组成部分相互影响,而以往的研究大多偏向于某个问题或某个设备,并未考虑到各个部分间的影响,因此有必要将整个增压系统作为一个整体进行研究。本文提出利用影响图理论来对增压系统进行风险评价,并将由燃气轮机驱动离心式压缩机组成的增压系统作为研究对象。首先,按照功能不同,将系统主要组成部分划分为7个子系统：离心式压缩机本体、燃气轮机本体、润滑系统、空气系统、燃料气系统、干气密封系统、控制系统；其次,在辨识出各个子系统的风险因素基础上,绘制出各个子系统的影响图及整个增压系统的影响图,并建立起增压系统的风险评价指标体系,根据概率影响图推理算法推理出增压系统发生故障的可能性值,考虑到其他因素对增压系统的影响,同时建立了人为因素、管理因素、环境因素、设计因素与增压系统的影响图,分析出各个外部因素对增压系统的贡献度。再次,综合考虑增压系统故障后果所带来的人员死亡、直接经济损失和无形损失,利用属性综合评价方法计算出整个系统的后果综合严重度；最后,根据风险可接受准则,结合增压系统的实际运行情况,绘制了风险矩阵图,并将该方法应用于南昌压气站增压系统进行风险评价,所得结果与运行实际相符。从而验证了该方法的合理性。本文将概率影响图引入进行风险评价,考虑了系统间相互影响,评价所得到的系统故障发生可能性比独立考虑某个系统时有所增加,这与实际情况相符。
[Abstract]:As the core component of gas pressure station, the supercharging system undertakes the important task of increasing the pressure of natural gas in the whole gas transmission pipeline system. Its safety or not is directly related to whether the pipeline can guarantee the quality and quantity. Supplying natural gas to downstream users on time. At present, there is no systematic risk assessment method for pressurized gas station system at home and abroad. Therefore, the risk evaluation method for pressurized gas station supercharging system is studied. It is of great significance to ensure the safe operation of pressurized gas station supercharging system. Because of the complex structure of the turbocharging system, the components of the supercharged system interact with each other, but most of the previous studies tend to a problem or a certain equipment, and do not take into account the influence of each part. Therefore, it is necessary to study the whole turbocharging system as a whole. At first, according to the different functions, the main components of the system are divided into seven subsystems: centrifugal compressor body, gas turbine body, Lubrication system, air system, fuel gas system, dry gas seal system, control system. Secondly, on the basis of identifying the risk factors of each subsystem, the influence diagram of each subsystem and the influence diagram of the whole pressurized system are drawn. The risk evaluation index system of the turbocharging system is established, and the probability value of the supercharging system failure is inferred according to the probability influence diagram reasoning algorithm, considering the influence of other factors on the supercharging system, the artificial factor and the management factor are also established. Environmental factors, design factors and the influence diagram of the supercharging system, analyze the contribution of each external factor to the supercharging system. Thirdly, consider the death of personnel, the direct economic loss and the invisible loss caused by the failure of the supercharging system. The comprehensive consequence severity of the whole system is calculated by using the attribute comprehensive evaluation method. Finally, according to the acceptable risk criterion and the actual operation of the pressurized system, the risk matrix diagram is drawn. The method is applied to the risk assessment of the pressurization system of Nanchang Gas Compression Station, and the results are in agreement with the actual operation, which verifies the rationality of the method. In this paper, the probabilistic impact diagram is introduced to risk assessment, and the interaction between systems is considered. The probability of system failure is higher than that of considering a system independently, which is in accordance with the actual situation.
【学位授予单位】：西南石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TE97

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