基于组合模型的流域水资源利用效率评估研究

发布时间：2018-04-18 00:03

本文选题：水资源利用效率 + 云模型　；参考：《郑州大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：水资源作为大自然赋予人类的宝贵财富，应当被人们所关注与保护。随着自然条件的变化与人类活动的影响，水资源在数量上逐渐减少，水资源管理的重心逐渐从开发新的水源转变为合理开发现有的水资源。实现水资源的有效利用，大力提高水资源利用效率，是解决水资源短缺难题，构建节水型社会的根本出路。因此，对区域水资源利用效率进行合理的评估，掌握区域水资源利用效率情况，为管理部门制定合理的对策及采取针对性的措施提高区域水资源利用效率具有重要的参考作用和决策依据。本文的主要研究内容与成果如下：（1）构建水资源利用效率指标基本集：根据专家意见，分别从各行业众多水资源利用效率相关指标中遴选出6~7个指标，构建评估指标基本集，指标基本集中包括农业、工业、生活与综合四个方面。（2）构建基于云模型与CPSO投影寻踪的组合模型：采用云模型并结合专家自然语言评估意见，对指标基本集中的25个指标进行得分计算，根据得分从大到小进行排序，筛选出7个指标，构建水资源利用效率综合评估指标体系；采用投影寻踪模型将评估指标体系中的若干指标转换为一个具有代表性的综合指数，转化过程中，采用混沌粒子群优化算法（CPSO算法）对投影方向进行优化，基于综合指数对比分析流域综合水资源利用效率差异。（3）利用前述模型对黄河流域进行实例分析：首先，，根据云模型构建的水资源利用效率评估指标体系，选取单个行业中得分最高的指标，代表单行业的水资源利用效率，对比分析黄河流域及其各省单行业的水资源利用效率差异；其次，采用混沌粒子群投影寻踪综合模型计算黄河流域及其各省水资源利用效率综合指数，并对比分析各区域的差异；最后，采用SPSS软件的相关分析过程对黄河流域及其各省水资源利用效率的综合指数进行相关因素分析，采用GeoDA软件中的Moran`s I对综合指数进行了空间相关性分析。
[Abstract]:Water resources, as a precious wealth endowed by nature, should be paid attention to and protected by people.With the change of natural conditions and the influence of human activities, the quantity of water resources is gradually reduced, and the focus of water resources management is gradually changing from developing new water sources to developing existing water resources rationally.To realize the effective utilization of water resources and to improve the efficiency of water resources utilization are the fundamental ways to solve the problem of water resources shortage and to build a water-saving society.Therefore, we should make a reasonable assessment of the efficiency of regional water resources utilization, and grasp the situation of regional water resources utilization efficiency.It is an important reference and decision basis for the management department to formulate reasonable countermeasures and take targeted measures to improve the utilization efficiency of regional water resources.The main contents and achievements of this paper are as follows:(1) constructing the basic set of water resources utilization efficiency index: according to the expert opinion, 6 ~ 7 indexes were selected from many related indexes of water resources utilization efficiency in various industries, and the basic set of evaluation indexes was constructed, which included agriculture and industry.Four aspects of life and synthesis.(2) constructing a combined model based on cloud model and CPSO projection pursuit: using cloud model and experts' natural language evaluation opinion, the scores of 25 indicators in the basic set of indicators are calculated and sorted according to the scores from large to small.Seven indexes were selected to construct the comprehensive evaluation index system of water resources utilization efficiency, and some indexes in the evaluation index system were converted into a representative comprehensive index by projection pursuit model.Chaotic particle swarm optimization algorithm (CPSO) is used to optimize the projection direction, and based on the comparison of comprehensive indices, the difference in the utilization efficiency of integrated water resources in river basin is analyzed.Firstly, according to the evaluation index system of water resources utilization efficiency constructed by cloud model, the index with the highest score in a single industry is selected to represent the water resources utilization efficiency of a single industry.The difference of water resources utilization efficiency between the Yellow River basin and its provinces is analyzed. Secondly, the comprehensive index of water resources utilization efficiency of the Yellow River basin and its provinces is calculated by using chaotic particle swarm projection pursuit synthesis model.Finally, the correlation analysis process of SPSS software is used to analyze the comprehensive index of water resources utilization efficiency in the Yellow River basin and its provinces.The spatial correlation of the composite index was analyzed by using Moran's I in GeoDA software.
【学位授予单位】：郑州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV213.9

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