基于决策树的大小水电长期协调调度模型及应用

发布时间：2018-05-19 23:25

本文选题：大中型水电 + 小水电　；参考：《水电能源科学》2016年05期

【摘要】：针对西南水电富集地区大小水电抢占输电通道外送电力的问题,构建了基于决策树的大中型水电与小水电长期协调调度模型,以水电总体可消纳电量最大为目标,以确定性逐次优化方法(POA)对历史长系列水文资料进行模拟调度,在此基础上采用决策树挖掘大小水电长期协调调度规则,在应用阶段,结合CFS降雨预报信息,预报大中型水电站径流和小水电发电能力,并作为决策树输入,以获得面临时段大中型水电站的决策出力。云南省德宏地区大规模大、小水电混合分区实例应用结果表明,该模型能够有效利用具有良好调节能力的大中型水电站协调大小水电运行,提高外送通道利用率,为电力调度部门提供了一种良好的大小水电长期协调调度方法。
[Abstract]:In order to solve the problem of large and small hydropower in southwest hydropower enrichment area, a long-term coordinated dispatching model of large and medium-sized hydropower and small hydropower is constructed based on decision tree. The method of deterministic successive optimization (POA) is used to simulate the long series of hydrological data. On this basis, the decision tree is used to mine the long-term coordinated regulation of large and small hydropower, and in the application stage, the CFS rainfall forecast information is combined. The runoff and small hydropower generation capacity of large and medium-sized hydropower stations are forecasted and input as decision trees to obtain the decision-making capacity of large and medium-sized hydropower stations in the face of time. The application results of large-scale large and small hydroelectricity mixed zoning in Dehong area of Yunnan Province show that the model can effectively utilize the large and medium-sized hydropower stations with good regulating capacity to coordinate the operation of large and small hydropower stations and to improve the utilization ratio of outgoing transmission channels. It provides a good long-term coordinated dispatching method for power dispatching department.
【作者单位】：大连理工大学水电与水信息研究所;云南电力调度控制中心;
【基金】：国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)(2012AA050205) 国家自然科学基金项目(51209029)
【分类号】：TV742;TV737

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