水电工程施工疲劳风险分析与量化评价研究

发布时间：2018-08-19 06:56

【摘要】：为量化评估作业疲劳风险,提高施工作业安全水平,提出基于云模型改进的水电工程施工疲劳风险模糊综合评价方法。在评价过程中,利用云模型的3个数字特征Ex(期望)、En(熵),He(超熵)表征常规模糊综合评判法中的综合评判矩阵和权重矩阵;运用正态云模型代替模糊隶属度函数,计算疲劳风险发生的可能性等级;综合运用正向云及逆向云,可视化评价研究结果。用所建立的方法对某水电工程高边坡作业疲劳风险进行评估,结果表明,该水电工程的疲劳风险发生的可能性为5.419,处于"一般"等级,但明显偏向于风险"较大"等级。该评价方法综合考虑风险评估的随机性、模糊性及评价主体的主观性,为客观测量和及时预防水电施工作业疲劳风险提供一种行之有效的新方法。
[Abstract]:In order to evaluate the fatigue risk of hydropower project quantitatively and improve the safety level of construction work, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for fatigue risk of hydropower project based on cloud model was proposed. In the process of evaluation, three digital features ex (expected) en (entropy) he (superentropy) of cloud model are used to characterize the comprehensive evaluation matrix and weight matrix in the conventional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and the normal cloud model is used to replace the fuzzy membership function. The probability level of fatigue risk is calculated, and the results of visual evaluation are evaluated by using both forward and reverse clouds. The fatigue risk of high slope operation of a hydropower project is evaluated by the established method. The results show that the possibility of fatigue risk of the hydropower project is 5.419, which is in the "general" grade, but obviously inclined to the "larger" grade of the risk. Considering the randomness, fuzziness and subjectivity of the evaluation subject, the evaluation method provides an effective new method for the objective measurement and timely prevention of fatigue risk in hydropower construction.
【作者单位】：三峡大学湖北省水电工程施工与管理重点实验室;三峡大学水利与环境学院;中国电建集团中南勘测设计研究院有限公司;
【基金】：长江科学院开放研究基金资助项目(CKWV2016382/KY) 国家自然科学基金项目(51379110) 水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室(三峡大学)开放基金资助项目(2016KSD20)
【分类号】：TV513

【相似文献】