基于区间两阶段机会约束鲁棒随机模型在洪水管理中的应用

发布时间：2019-02-15 05:53

【摘要】：当前,洪水已经成为全世界最严重的自然灾害之一,并已对许多国家造成巨大的经济损失。为了减缓洪水造成的危害,国内外学者提出了很多方案,其中分洪是一个有效的方法之一。在过去几十年中,学者们基于常规系统分析方法对洪水管理进行了研究。其中,两阶段随机规划是一种有效的方法。它将预调节的分洪政策纳入其优化过程,以分析不同洪水流量下的各种解决方案,并且当目标被违反时,每种情景的经济惩罚是各异的。其被当作解决分洪问题的可行方法,并且近年来已经在世界范围内广泛使用。然而,该方法具有两个主要限制。一是处理可能存在于目标函数和约束条件中的模糊信息的困难。另一个是,它难以评估系统经济性和稳定性之间的权衡。本研究的目的是开发一种新的方法,以解决在多个不确定性下的洪水管理的问题。本文在两阶段随机规划、鲁棒规划和机会约束规划方法的基础上,提出了区间两阶段机会约束鲁棒随机规划方法。该方法可以分析系统经济性和稳定性之间的权衡,可适用于获得在复杂不确定性下具有可接受风险的最低成本。最后,本文将方法应用到一个洪水管理的假设案例中。结果表明,新方法可以在一定程度上解决洪水系统的不确定性和复杂性,并且显示系统经济性和系统稳定性之间的权衡。
[Abstract]:At present, flood has become one of the most serious natural disasters in the world, and has caused huge economic losses to many countries. In order to reduce the damage caused by flood, many projects have been put forward by scholars at home and abroad, among which flood diversion is one of the effective methods. In the past few decades, researchers have studied flood management based on conventional system analysis methods. Among them, two-stage stochastic programming is an effective method. It integrates the pre-adjusted flood diversion policy into its optimization process to analyze various solutions under different flood flows, and when the target is violated, the economic penalties for each scenario are different. It is regarded as a feasible method to solve flood diversion problem and has been widely used in the world in recent years. However, the method has two main limitations. One is the difficulty of dealing with fuzzy information that may exist in objective functions and constraints. Another is that it is difficult to assess the trade-off between system economy and stability. The purpose of this study is to develop a new method to solve the problem of flood management under multiple uncertainties. In this paper, based on two-stage stochastic programming, robust programming and opportunity-constrained programming, an interval two-stage opportunity-constrained robust stochastic programming method is proposed. This method can analyze the tradeoff between system economy and stability, and can be used to obtain the lowest cost with acceptable risk under complex uncertainty. Finally, the method is applied to a case of flood management hypothesis. The results show that the new method can solve the uncertainty and complexity of flood system to some extent and show the trade-off between system economy and system stability.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV122;TV87

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