不确定性情形下水资源脆弱性评价

发布时间：2017-12-27 17:19

本文关键词：不确定性情形下水资源脆弱性评价　出处：《水电能源科学》2014年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

更多相关文章： 水资源 脆弱性 随机性 灾害损失

【摘要】：在考虑水资源脆弱性影响因素随机性基础上,结合地区风险暴露水平,采用广义最小二乘法建立灾害损失模型,以期望灾害损失占GDP比重作为衡量水资源脆弱性的重要指标,依据我国31个省市自治区的多年平均降水量,采用Z指数法评价其旱涝风险等级,估计了短期内期望灾害损失占GDP比重,并对此进行核密度估计以确定水资源脆弱性等级划分阈值,据此对各地区水资源脆弱性进行等级划分,结合旱涝灾害风险等级划分和水资源脆弱性等级划分,对各地区的脆弱性与旱涝风险进行配对研究。结果表明,我国区域间降水量分布与水资源脆弱性分布并不完全相同,水资源脆弱性更多地与经济发展水平相关,经济发达并不意味着水资源高度脆弱。
[Abstract]:In considering the vulnerability of water resources on the basis of random factors, combined with the risk exposure level, and build a disaster loss model using generalized least square method, in the hope of disaster losses accounted for the proportion of GDP as an important index to measure the vulnerability of water resources, on the basis of the 31 provinces and cities in China for the autonomous region's average precipitation, using Z index method to evaluate the drought risk level, the estimated short-term expectations of disaster losses accounted for the proportion of GDP, and then to determine the vulnerability of water resources classification threshold kernel density estimation based on the water resource vulnerability grade division, combined with the drought and flood disaster risk classification and water resources vulnerability classification in various areas the vulnerability and drought risk matched study. The results show that the distribution of interregional precipitation and the vulnerability of water resources are not the same in China. The vulnerability of water resources is more related to the level of economic development. The economic development does not mean that water resources are highly vulnerable.
【作者单位】：浙江水利水电学院;
【基金】：2013年度教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(13YJA790116)
【分类号】：TV213.4
【正文快照】： 1引言目前,水资源脆弱性的评价方法[1~3]基本上以脆弱性指数或脆弱性等级确定评价值或等级。但在现实中影响水资源脆弱性的因素既有短期内变幅较小或变动趋势相对明确的确定性因素,也有降水量等不确定性的较大随机性因素,都会使水资源脆弱性并非为一个确定值,水资源脆弱性更多

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