西北干旱区气候变化对水文水资源影响研究进展

发布时间：2018-04-17 04:13

本文选题：气候变化 + 水资源　；参考：《地理学报》2014年09期

【摘要】：西北干旱区是对全球变化响应最敏感地区之一,研究分析全球变暖背景下的西北干旱区水资源问题,对应对和适应未来气候变化带来的影响具有重要意义。本文通过对西北干旱区气候变暖影响下的水资源形成、转化与水循环等关键问题最新研究成果的总结分析,得出如下结论:(1)西北干旱区温度、降水在过去的50年出现过"突变型"升高,但进入21世纪,温度和降水均处于高位震荡,升高趋势减弱;(2)西北干旱区冬季温度的大幅升高是拉动年均温度抬升的重要原因,而西伯利亚高压活动和二氧化碳排放是引起冬季升温的重要影响因素;(3)西北干旱区蒸发潜力在1993年出现了一个明显的转折变化,由显著下降逆转为显著上升的趋势。气候变暖、蒸发水平增大对西北干旱区生态效应的负作用已经凸显;(4)西北干旱区冰川变化对水资源量及年内分配产生了重要影响,部分河流已经出现冰川消融拐点。在塔里木河流域,冰川融水份额较大(50%),可能在未来一段时期,河川径流还将处在高位状态波动。全球气候变暖在加大极端气候水文事件发生频率和强度的同时,加剧了西北干旱区内陆河流域的水文波动和水资源的不确定性。
[Abstract]:In arid area of Northwest China is the most sensitive area of global change response, analysis of water resources in arid area of Northwest China problem under the background of global warming, has important significance for coping with and adapting to the impact of future climate change. Based on the arid area of Northwest climate warming under the influence of water resources, analysis of the latest research achievement transformation and key the problem of water circulation in the summary, draw the following conclusions: (1) the northwest arid area of temperature and precipitation in the past 50 years occurred in the "mutant" increased, but in twenty-first Century, the temperature and precipitation are in high volatility, rising trend weakened; (2) the winter temperature in the arid area of Northwest China is an important reason to promote the increase of the average annual temperature rise, while the Siberia high activity and carbon dioxide emissions are caused by important factors influencing the temperature in winter; (3) the potential evaporation in arid area of Northwest China in 1993 there is an obvious turn Fold changes, decreased significantly by reversing the rising trend. Climate warming, evaporation levels increase negative effect on ecological effect in the arid area of Northwest China has been highlighted; (4) glaciers in northwest arid area distribution changes had an important influence on the amount of water resources and within the year, part of the river has been melting glaciers in the Tarim River Basin inflection point. A large share of meltwater, (50%), may in the future period, the runoff will still in high state fluctuations. Global warming occurred in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate and hydrological events increase at the same time, exacerbating the hydrological fluctuations and water resources in arid area of northwest inland basin uncertainty.

【作者单位】：中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室;
【基金】：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2010CB951003)~~
【分类号】：P467;TV213;P339

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