基于系统动力学的京津冀地区水资源承载力研究

发布时间：2018-04-22 08:22

本文选题：京津冀 + 水资源承载力　；参考：《中国地质大学(北京)》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：资源是经济发展的基础,环境是人类得以生存的保障,二者同时也是经济社会发展的制约因素。随着人口越来越多、经济规模越来越大,资源的过度开采和环境的破坏使其逐渐无法承受人类施加的巨大压力,基础资源之一的水资源供需矛盾日渐加大。因此,国内外的学者们将研究视角转向资源环境承载力,开始探索人与环境的关系。北京市、天津市、河北省因其独特的地位和快速的经济发展成为人口大量聚集的地区,这也给该地区的水资源和水环境带来极大压力。针对这一问题,运用系统动力学方法对京津冀地区的水资源承载力进行研究,具有一定的理论和现实意义。本文从以下三个方面进行了研究:(1)界定了“京津冀地区水资源承载力”系统。“京津冀地区水资源承载力”系统是指在京津冀一体化背景下,由人口、经济、水资源等多种要素耦合而成的复合系统。该系统包含四个子系统,分别是:人口子系统、经济子系统、水资源子系统和水环境子系统。子系统之间相互联结、相互作用。(2)构建了“京津冀地区水资源承载力”系统动力学模型。在信息反馈理论指导下分析了系统中各要素的因果关系,运用系统动力学专业软件Vensim PLE构建了“京津冀地区水资源承载力”系统动力学模型,用2005-2014年的基础数据对模型进行了仿真,通过了模型的有效性检验。(3)采用情景分析法,计算并分析了2014-2030年四种情景下京津冀地区水资源承载力情况并提出了相应的政策建议。结果显示,综合型情景下用水情况能够较客观地反映未来水资源利用的情况。到2030年,京津冀地区人口总量增加到13772万人,国内生产总值193253亿元,总用水量256.65亿立方米,生活污水处理率可以达到95%,工业废水处理率能够达到97%,工业用水重复利用率92%以上,在每年44.38亿立方米南水北调水量的补给下,2030年仍存在42.75亿立方米水资源缺口。因此,在资源型缺水的京津冀地区,实现提高水资源承载力的目标,需要提高水资源利用效率、注重开发水资源和保护水环境多管齐下。
[Abstract]:Resources are the foundation of economic development, environment is the guarantee of human survival, and they are also the restrictive factors of economic and social development. With the increasing population and economic scale, the over-exploitation of resources and the destruction of the environment make them gradually unable to bear the enormous pressure imposed by human beings, and the contradiction between the supply and demand of water resources, one of the basic resources, is increasing day by day. Therefore, scholars at home and abroad turned their research perspective to the bearing capacity of resources and environment, and began to explore the relationship between human and environment. Because of its unique status and rapid economic development, Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei Province have become densely populated areas, which also bring great pressure to the water resources and water environment in this area. To solve this problem, it is of theoretical and practical significance to study the carrying capacity of water resources in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region by the method of system dynamics. This paper defines the system of water resources carrying capacity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from the following three aspects. "carrying capacity of water resources in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area" refers to a composite system which is composed of population, economy, water resources and other factors under the background of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration. The system consists of four subsystems: population subsystem, economic subsystem, water resources subsystem and water environment subsystem. The system dynamics model of water resources carrying capacity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area is constructed. Under the guidance of information feedback theory, the causality of various elements in the system is analyzed, and the system dynamics model of water resources carrying capacity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area is constructed by using the system dynamics professional software Vensim PLE. The model is simulated with the basic data from 2005 to 2014. The validity of the model is tested. The scenario analysis method is used to calculate and analyze the water resources carrying capacity in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2014-2030, and the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward. The results show that the situation of water use can objectively reflect the situation of water resources utilization in the future. By 2030, the total population of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will increase to 137.72 million people, the gross domestic product will be 19.3253 trillion yuan, the total water consumption will be 25.665 billion cubic meters, the treatment rate of domestic sewage can reach 95%, the treatment rate of industrial wastewater will reach 97%, and the reuse rate of industrial water will be over 92%. Under the supply of 4.438 billion cubic meters of water transferred from south to north each year, there is still a water shortage of 4.275 billion cubic meters in 2030. Therefore, in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region with water shortage, it is necessary to improve the efficiency of water resources utilization and pay attention to the development of water resources and the protection of water environment in order to improve the carrying capacity of water resources.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TV213.4

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