大连市水资源短缺风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-05-29 07:32

本文选题：大连市 + 需水量预测　；参考：《辽宁师范大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：城市的进步和经济的发展都离不开水资源,这就使人类对水资源的需求量日益增长,进而涌现出了许多缺水城市,导致供水量和需水量之间矛盾逐渐加深,还有可能引发水资源短缺风险,所以建设节水型社会是我们现在的首要任务。大连市虽然是沿海城市,但是人均水资源占有量少,属于严重缺水城市,所以对大连市供水量和需水量平衡进行分析。需水量一般包含生活、农业和工业需水量三大部分。本文结合大连市自然情况,历年用水指标等各个方面对其进行分析。借鉴国内外研究方法采用定额分析法和万元产值预测法分别对大连市生活、农业、工业需水进行分析预测。以人均综合用水量作为预测指标,采取指数平滑法对其进行预测,再根据人口定额法对大连市未来生活需水量进行预测;以工业产值作为预测参数,采用指数函数预测法进行预测,再按照工业需水量等于工业产值和万元工业需水量的乘积对大连市未来工业方面需水量进行预测;以农业灌溉亩均用水量为预测指数,采用指数平滑法进行预测,再根据定额法对大连市未来农业生活方面需水量进行预测。得到结果为大连市2020年用水总量23.07亿m3,供水量22.87亿m3;2030年用水总量43.83亿m3,供水量37.97亿m3。由此预测大连市2020年将会缺水0.2亿m3,2030年将会缺水5.86亿m3。可以看出大连市未来供水量无法满足需水量,可能会发生水资源短缺风险。在衡量各个统计指标的基础上,选取具有代表性的评价指标,本文选取降水量、地表水资源量、地下水资源量、农业用水量、工业用水量、第三产业及生活用水、万元GDP产值耗水量、污水排放量、城镇居民人均支配收入和人均国内生产总值这10项指标。参照灾害学中对风险的等级划分原则,本文将风险等级划分为5个等级,分别为高风险,较高风险,中等风险,较低风险,低风险。综合运用熵权法和三角模糊法求取各个指标的组合权重,最后采用模糊物元模型对大连市2001年到2012年水资源短缺风险进行评价。研究结果表明大连市2001、2002、2003、2006、2009 年为较高风险;2004、2005、2007、2008、2010、2011、2012年为中等风险,由此看出大连市水资源短缺风险整体偏高。根据以上评价结果,建议对大连市的水资源状况进行调控,控制水资源需求增长,提高水方面利用开发水平,提高海水、中水的利用率,兴建调水工程和蓄水工程,解决大连市水资源短缺问题。
[Abstract]:The progress of the city and the development of the economy can not be separated from the water resources, which makes the human demand for water resources increasing, and then emerges a lot of water shortage cities, which leads to the deepening of the contradiction between water supply and water demand, and may lead to the risk of water shortage. So building a water-saving society is our primary task now. Although the city is a coastal city, but the per capita water resources are less, it belongs to a serious water shortage city, so the balance of water supply and water demand in Dalian is analyzed. The water requirement is generally included in the life, agricultural and industrial water demand in three parts. This paper analyzes the natural situation in Dalian and the various aspects of the water use index in the past years. At home and abroad, the methods of quota analysis and ten thousand yuan output value forecast are used to predict the life, agriculture, and industrial water requirement of Dalian respectively. With the average per capita water consumption as the prediction index, the index smoothing method is used to predict it, and then the water demand in Dalian is predicted by the population quota method, and the industrial production is made by industrial production. As a prediction parameter, the index function prediction method is used to predict the industrial water demand of Dalian in the future according to the product of industrial water demand equal to the product of industrial output value and the industrial water demand of ten thousand yuan. The prediction index of agricultural irrigation per mu is used as the prediction index, the index smoothing method is used to predict the water consumption, and then the quota method is used for the Dalian city. The water demand of agricultural life in the future is predicted. The result is that the total amount of water used in Dalian in 2020 is 2 billion 307 million m3, the water supply is 2 billion 287 million m3, the total water consumption in 2030 is 4 billion 383 million m3, and the water supply is 3 billion 797 million m3., thus it is predicted that the water shortage in 2020 will be 586 million m3. in 2020, and the water supply in Dalian will be unable to meet the needs of the water supply. Water resources may take place in the risk of water shortage. On the basis of measuring each statistical index, we select the representative evaluation index. This paper selects precipitation, surface water resources, groundwater resources, agricultural water consumption, industrial water consumption, third industry and living water, water consumption of GDP, sewage, urban residents. According to the grade division principle of risk in disaster science, this paper divides the risk grade into 5 grades, which are high risk, high risk, medium risk, low risk and low risk. The combination of entropy weight method and three angle fuzzy method are used to obtain the combination weight of each index. Finally, the weight of each index is obtained by the method of entropy weight and three angle fuzzy method. The risk of water shortage in Dalian from 2001 to 2012 is evaluated with the fuzzy matter element model. The results of the study show that the 20012002200320062009 year in Dalian is a high risk and the 2004200520072008201020112012 is a medium risk. Thus, the risk of water shortage in Dalian is generally high. The water resource situation in Dalian is regulated, the demand growth of water resources is controlled, the water utilization and development level is raised, the utilization rate of water and water, the construction of water diversion project and the water storage project are built to solve the shortage of water resources in Dalian.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TV213.4

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