水资源需求层次理论和初步实践

发布时间：2018-08-24 18:32

【摘要】：水资源需求预测对于经济社会发展规划和供水规划与管理至关重要,不合理的预测可能会误导水利规划和供水工程建设规模;从用水户的角度出发去揭示其不同层次的真实需水,可提高需水预测结果的合理性。通过对水资源需求内涵和影响因子的详细分析,引入马斯洛需求层次理论初步建立了基本、发展、和谐层次的水资源需求层次理论,并从生活、生产、生态三方面分别探讨不同层次的真实需水。以普洱市为例进行了不同层次的需水预测实践,2020年50%、75%、90%和95%的来水频率,发展层次下的河道外总需水预测量较相关规划成果分别偏小28.2%、22.6%、22.6%和18.1%,基本层次下的预测成果偏小更多,和谐层次下的预测成果也偏小1.8%~13.8%;75%来水频率,发展层次下需水量与"人均综合用水量法"预测结果基本相当,整体偏小0.8%~1.7%。预测结果表明不同频率、不同层次下的预测成果比常规预测结果整体上偏小,弥补了常规预测总是偏大的不足。
[Abstract]:Water demand forecasting is very important for economic and social development planning and water supply planning and management. Unreasonable prediction may mislead water resources planning and water supply project construction scale. From the point of view of water users, the rationality of water demand prediction results can be improved by revealing the real water demand at different levels. Through the detailed analysis of the connotation and influence factors of water resources demand, Maslow's hierarchy theory of water resources demand is preliminarily established in terms of basic, developing and harmonious levels of water resources demand, and from the point of view of life and production, The real water requirement of different levels is discussed in three aspects of ecology. Taking Pu'er city as an example, different levels of water demand prediction practice are carried out. In 2020, the frequency of water demand is 500.75% 90% and 95%, respectively. The total water demand forecast amount outside the river at the development level is 28.22.622.622. 6% and 18.1% respectively compared with the related planning results. The prediction results at the basic level are much smaller than those under the basic level. The prediction results under the harmonious level are also lower than 1.80.The water demand under the development level is basically equal to the forecast result of the per capita comprehensive water consumption method, and the overall water demand is less than 0.8%. The prediction results show that the prediction results at different frequencies and levels are smaller than those of the conventional ones, which makes up for the deficiency that the conventional prediction is always on the large side.
【作者单位】：南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室;中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室;水利部水资源司;北京中水新华国际工程咨询有限公司;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51109138) 水利部公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目(201301002)~~
【分类号】：TV213.4

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