基于故障树分析与马尔科夫链模型的山西省水资源短缺风险预测

发布时间：2018-09-03 20:47

【摘要】：随着社会经济发展的进步和生态环境的持续破坏,人类所面临的水资源短缺问题也在不断加剧。山西省是我国著名的传统型重工业基地,同时也是我国水资源短缺最严重的省份之一。目前,煤炭在世界能源结构中的地位不断下降,山西省正面临产业结构转型的关键时期,如何解决水资源短缺问题,支撑山西省社会经济快速发展,是该地区亟待解决的问题。本文针对山西省水资源短缺的具体情况,探讨研究了山西省水资源短缺风险的马尔科夫预测方法和故障树分析模型,为预防和解决山西省经济社会发展过程中可能出现的水资源短缺问题提供了思路和建议。经过对山西省水资源短缺风险预测的探究,得到以下结论:①建立了以山西省水资源短缺为顶上事件,以水资源要素、社会经济要素和生态环境要素为中间层事件,以水资源总量、实际用水量、人均用水量、万元GDP用水量、人口增长率、污水排放量和森林覆盖率为基本事件的故障树体系。②用马尔科夫链模型预测方法预测了 2015年山西省发生水资源短缺的概率为90%,需做好相关防灾减灾工作。③在影响2015年山西省缺水事故发生的基本事件中,山西省实际用水量进一步上升的概率最大,为66%,因此,2015年山西省应严格控制水资源的实际使用情况,避免水资源的浪费。④通过对影响山西省水资源短缺的基本事件概率重要度的分析,结果表明实际用水量是对系统影响度最高的基本事件,其重要度达到0.291,其次为水资源总量和人均用水量,重要度分别为0.198和0.147,降低上述基本事件发生的概率,可以显著预防2015年山西省水资源短缺问题。⑤通过对各项基本事件的临界重要度分析,结果表明当实际用水量发生事故的概率变化时,对2015年山西水资源短缺事故发生的概率影响最大,影响度为0.213,其次为人均用水量和水资源总量,其影响度分别为0.109和0.054,当水资源短缺事故发生时,优先对上述三项基本事件进行监管和整治,能够加快水资源短缺事故的处理。⑥通过将预测结果与2015年山西省实际水资源供需情况进行对比,水资源总量较上一年有小幅度增加,万元工业增加值用水量下降4.6%,2015年山西省出现了大量水资源短缺事件,与论文结果基本一致。
[Abstract]:With the progress of social and economic development and the continuous destruction of ecological environment, the shortage of water resources is becoming more and more serious. Shanxi Province is a famous traditional heavy industrial base and one of the most serious provinces in China. The province is facing a critical period of industrial restructuring. How to solve the problem of water shortage and support the rapid development of social economy in Shanxi Province is an urgent problem to be solved in this area. Through the study on the risk prediction of water resources shortage in Shanxi Province, the following conclusions are drawn: (1) Establishment of water resources shortage in Shanxi Province as the top event, water resources elements, socio-economic factors and ecological environment. The environmental factors are intermediate events. The fault tree system is based on the total amount of water resources, actual water consumption, per capita water consumption, water consumption of 10,000 yuan GDP, population growth rate, sewage discharge and forest coverage. 2 The probability of water resources shortage in Shanxi Province in 2015 is predicted by Markov chain model, which is 90%. Disaster prevention and mitigation work. (3) Among the basic events affecting the occurrence of water shortage accidents in Shanxi Province in 2015, the probability of further increase in actual water consumption in Shanxi Province is 66%. Therefore, in 2015, Shanxi Province should strictly control the actual use of water resources to avoid waste of water resources. (4) Through the basic events affecting the shortage of water resources in Shanxi Province. The analysis of probabilistic importance shows that the actual water consumption is the most important basic event to the system, and its importance reaches 0.291, followed by the total water resources and per capita water consumption, with the importance of 0.198 and 0.147 respectively. Reducing the probability of the above-mentioned basic events can significantly prevent the water shortage in Shanxi Province in 2015. The critical importance of each basic event is analyzed. The results show that when the probability of water shortage accident changes, the impact on the probability of water shortage accident in Shanxi Province in 2015 is the greatest, the impact degree is 0.213, followed by the per capita water consumption and total water resources, the impact degree is 0.109 and 0.054, respectively. _By comparing the forecasting results with the actual water resources supply and demand in Shanxi Province in 2015, the total amount of water resources increased slightly compared with the previous year, and the water consumption of 10,000 yuan industrial added value decreased by 4.6%, and Shanxi Province emerged in 2015. A large number of water shortage events are basically consistent with the results of the paper.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TV213.4

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