腐败、反腐败与外商直接投资

发布时间：2018-03-08 06:01

本文选题：腐败　切入点：绝对腐败水平　出处：《中央财经大学》2015年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：腐败,号称“经济之癌”。全世界所有的民族、国家和地区,不论贫富、大小,也不论层次和领域,都会有腐败渗透其间。即便是美国这样的发达国家,历史上也一度非常腐败。可见,腐败是一种世界性的社会历史现象,并不是中国独有的畸形景观。对于腐败问题,中国历届党和国家领导人都把它提到了很高、很严峻的层次,并采取相应措施反腐败。特别是2012年中国共产党第十八次全国代表大会之后,反腐力度空前,上至政治局常委,下至普通干部,只要有问题,皆有可能被查办,可谓“既打老虎又拍苍蝇”。毋庸置疑,腐败和反腐败会对社会经济的发展产生一系列深远影响。那么,它们会如何影响外商直接投资?尤其是当前的反腐大潮,它与外商直接投资之间是什么关系?基于此背景,我们推出了本选题——《腐败、反腐败与外商直接投资》。从文献搜索结果可知,国内外目前对外商直接投资的研究已经很多,涉及的面也比较广,方法也较为成熟。尽管如此,从反腐败角度来研究外商直接投资的文献还很少,绝大多数文献考察的是腐败水平对外商直接投资的影响,而且关于中国的研究寥寥无几。比照既有文献,可以看出本文的贡献主要体现在两方面:1、从绝对腐败水平和相对腐败水平(腐败水平差异)两方面比较分析腐败对外商直接投资的影响,发现中国的腐败与外商直接投资之间存在倒U型关系;2、考察了反腐败对外商直接投资的影响,提出并检验“反腐败与外商直接投资的U型假说”。本研究与以往文献的一大区别还在于,我们注重影响的非线性(非单调性)。尽我们所知,本文是第一篇探讨腐败水平差异对中国外商直接投资影响的文献,是第二篇关注反腐败对中国FDI影响的中文文献。可以预期,我们的研究可进一步丰富外商直接投资文献,具有理论意义。本文的研究内容主要分为以下几部分:1、测度中国的腐败水平和反腐败力度,并简要介绍中国外商直接投资的基本情况。这些内容将分散到相关章节作为实证分析的背景知识。2、从理论和逻辑上探讨腐败、反腐败对外商直接投资的影响机制,并提出相关假设。就直觉而言,它们对外商直接投资的影响可能会随着发展阶段、资金来源地、企业性质和行业状况等方面的不同而有所差异。3、基于引力模型,实证分析腐败、反腐败对外商直接投资的影响。腐败方面,主要采用世界银行发布的全球治理指数(wgi)和美国政治风险服务团队(prsgroup)的分项指标来测度腐败水平。一是做中国1984—2013年的时间序列数据分析,考察绝对腐败水平对外商直接投资的影响。二是考察中国2000—2013年相对腐败水平与fdi的关系,参照中国的腐败程度将122个经济体分为“相对清廉组”和“相对腐败组”,在两分法的基础上根据地缘文化分列出“儒家文化圈”。对于反腐败,主要是基于中国1998—2013年的省级面板数据来展开,提出并检验反腐败与外商直接投资的“u型”假说,探讨其政策含义。通过机制探讨和实证分析,本文的主要结论如下:1、在经济发展的初级阶段或者腐败水平处于较低的状态时,腐败的存在能在一定程度上提升交易效率,促进外商直接投资的流入;当经济社会发展到一定程度时,人们对公平和透明营商环境的呼声变得强烈,此时的腐败不利于吸引外商直接投资。这说明腐败既是外商直接投资的“沙子”,也是“润滑剂”,它扮演着双重角色。概言之,绝对腐败水平对fdi的影响遵从倒u型轨迹。2、相对腐败水平(腐败水平差异)与外商直接投资负相关,但这种影响具有非对称性。具体而言,属于相对清廉组的经济体大概在10%的水平上显著,属于相对腐败组的国家和地区在1%的水平上显著,而属于儒家文化圈的经济体仅显示出负向关系,并不怎么显著。这些差别说明不同的国家(或地区)特质决定了它们对同一因素存在不同的反应。3、从资金来源地看,对于清廉经济体,中国降低腐败水平(亦即加大反腐败力度)有利于吸引来自这些国家和地区的直接投资;对于高腐败经济体,腐败的存在反而能吸引来自这些经济体的直接投资。也就是说,它们的政策含义是相反的。但就长期的净效应而言,为了吸引更多的外商直接投资,我们的腐败水平应该向清廉经济体趋同。也就是说,通过反腐败来吸引更多的外资。4、反腐败对外商直接投资的影响在几何上呈现出u型特征。这意味着外商直接投资的增加与反腐败力度的增强不一定是同步的,外商对中国的反腐败存在一个反应时间。其寓意是,在初始阶段,反腐败很可能会降低外商直接投资,原因也许在于来自高腐败经济体fdi的减少效应超过了来自清廉经济体fdi的增加效应。当然,这种阶段性或暂时性的减少不一定体现为投资额度的减少,更可能反映在投资增速的减缓上。在u型曲线的右边,随着反腐败的继续推进,投资和商业环境益加改善,投资者对反腐败的正面预期趋稳。届时,来自清廉国家或地区fdi的增加效应便会超过来自高腐败经济体fdi的减少效应,净效应为正,外商直接投资增加。5、从控制变量来看,经济集聚程度的提高、人力资本水平的提升、基础设施状况的改善、直接标价法下汇率的升值、政策扶持力度的加强和经济增长向好皆能促进外商直接投资的流入。政治环境差异与fdi正相关,说明外商敢于去政治环境不同的地区开展投资活动。我们的估计结果还显示工资水平与外商直接投资正相关,其机制可能在于,在劳动力供求状况不变的情况下,工资水平上升是劳动力质量改善的价值实现,同时也是高劳动力质量的信号,而且高工资水平往往还代表着较高的市场规模和消费水平。负效应方面,本文的研究显示文化差异、政府对经济的控制和地理距离皆会抑制外商直接投资的流入。此外,相对经济规模和相对人口规模皆与外商直接投资正相关,对外商直接投资具有引力作用。当然,这种影响对不同腐败水平的经济体也是存在差别的。对于来自清廉经济体和儒家文化圈的直接投资而言,相对经济规模有负向影响,相对人口规模则表现为促进作用。相对腐败组的情形正好与此相反。综合我们的研究,可以看出既有文献之所以对腐败、反腐败与外商直接投资的关系存在争议,除了同研究者所关注的时期、地区和采用的方法有关外,还在于大多数研究单纯从绝对水平来探讨它们的关系,或者仅仅考察它们的线性关系,而忽略了可能存在的非线性关系。我们的工作无疑能在一定程度上弥合争议,推进相关研究的开展。由实证研究引申出的政策含义主要有:中国需要反腐败;在反腐过程中要更加注重制度建设、要注意稳定和调整市场预期;要继续提升人力资本水平、继续改善基础设施状况,加大政策扶持力度,以吸引外资流入;同时也要减少政府对经济的控制,让市场在资源配置中真正起到基础性作用。当然,本文也存在着一些遗憾,这也是本文的不足。数据资料的限制,使得我们在分析绝对腐败水平对外商直接投资的影响时,只能从事全国层面的时间序列分析,造成研究结论略显粗糙。在探讨反腐败对外商直接投资的影响时,未能探讨中国反腐败对外商直接投资影响的行业效应和企业效应,也未能从总案件中分离出大案、要案的影响。理论上,不同行业、不同属性的企业对腐败、反腐败会存在不同的反应。而且,与一般案件相比,查办大案、要案更能显示中国政府反腐败的决心和力度,它们的影响可能会更显著。但由于《中国检察年鉴》和《中国法律年鉴》各省市大案、要案的信息缺失严重,笔者没办法从总案件中析出大案、要案的面板数据。在第三章和第四章的实证分析中,数据来源略显单一,不便进行稳健性检验,这也是一个不足。若有相关数据资料,本研究将会更为深入。该领域的下一步研究工作可在腐败、反腐败的测度和数据库建设,腐败水平差异与外商直接投资,反腐败与外商直接投资三大层面展开,考察反腐败的企业效应和行业效应。重点关注中国反腐败实践可能带来的社会经济影响,尤其要注意其影响的非线性特征,及时提炼、发现问题,让相关研究相得益彰。
[Abstract]:Corruption, known as the "economic cancer". All the peoples of the world, countries and regions, rich or poor, regardless of size, level and field, there will be corruption during the infiltration. Even in developed countries such as the United States, the history was also very corrupt. Obviously, corruption is a kind of social and historical phenomenon of the world that is not a unique landscape. China deformity over corruption, the party and state leaders China it referred to a very high level, very serious, and take corresponding measures to anti-corruption. Especially in 2012 Chinese eighteenth National Congress of the Communist Party after the unprecedented anti-corruption efforts, to the standing Committee of the Political Bureau, to ordinary cadres, as long as there is a problem, there are likely to be investigated, can be described as "both tigers and flies. There is no doubt that corruption and anti-corruption will produce a series of far-reaching influence on the social and economic development. So, how they will influence Foreign direct investment? Especially the current tide of corruption, between it and foreign direct investment is what relation? Based on this background, we introduced the topic: "corruption, anti-corruption and foreign direct investment. The search results from the literature, there have been a lot of research at home and abroad, foreign direct investment, the surface is more extensive, method is relatively mature. However, to study foreign direct investment from the perspective of anti-corruption literature are few, the vast majority of the literature examines the impact of corruption on the level of foreign direct investment, and the research on China. According to scanty literatures, we can see that the contribution of this paper is mainly reflected in two aspects: 1 from the absolute and relative levels of corruption, corruption level (the level of corruption difference) two aspects of comparative analysis of the effect of corruption and foreign direct investment, Chinese found between corruption and foreign direct investment. In the inverted U type; 2, the effects of anti-corruption of foreign direct investment, propose and test "U hypothesis" anti-corruption and foreign direct investment. The research and literature of a big difference lies, we focus on the nonlinear effects (non monotonic). As we know, the is the first to investigate the effects of differences in the level of corruption Chinese foreign direct investment literature, is the second focus on anti-corruption of China FDI affected Chinese literature. It can be expected that our research can further enrich the literature of foreign direct investment, has theoretical significance. The research content of this paper is mainly divided into the following parts: 1, the Chinese measure the level of corruption and anti-corruption efforts, and briefly introduces the basic situation of China foreign direct investment. The content will be distributed to relevant chapters as an empirical analysis of the background knowledge of.2, to investigate corruption from the theory and logic of anti-corruption. The influence mechanism of foreign direct investment, and puts forward the relevant hypothesis. On intuition, they influence the foreign direct investment may be with the stage of development, the source of funds, enterprise property and industry status of different.3, based on the gravity model, the empirical analysis of corruption, anti-corruption effect of foreign direct investment. Corruption, mainly by the world bank's global governance index (WGI) and the American political risk service team (prsgroup) of the index to measure the level of corruption. One is the analysis of time series data Chinese 1984 - 2013, the influence of the absolute level of corruption of foreign direct investment. The two is to investigate Chinese 2000 - 2013 the relative levels of corruption and the relationship between the FDI and the level of corruption in the China refer to 122 economies into "relatively clean" and "relative corruption group", based on dichotomy method according to the In the "geo cultural circle of Confucian culture". For anti-corruption, mainly is the provincial panel data from 1998 to 2013 based on the Chinese, propose and test anti-corruption and foreign direct investment "U" hypothesis, discuss its policy implications. Through analyzing the mechanism and empirical study, the main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1, in low status in the primary stage of economic development and the level of corruption, corruption can improve transaction efficiency to a certain extent, promote the inflow of foreign direct investment; when the economic and social development to a certain extent, voice of the people of the fair and transparent business environment becomes strong, the corruption is not conducive to attracting foreign direct this shows that corruption is not only investment. Foreign direct investment "sand", is the "lubricant", it plays a dual role. In general, the absolute level of corruption effect on FDI compliance from the inverted U-shaped trajectory .2, the relative level of corruption (corruption level difference) and foreign direct investment are negatively correlated, but this effect is asymmetric. Specifically, belongs to the economy is relatively clean about the group is statistically significant at the 10% level, which belongs to the group of countries and regions relative corruption at the 1% level of significant economies, and belongs to the Confucianism the cultural circle shows only a negative relationship is not significant. These differences illustrate how different countries (or regions) nature determines that they exist on the same.3 different reaction factors, from the source of funds, for the clean economy, Chinese reduced the level of corruption (i.e. strengthening anti-corruption) to attract direct investment from these countries and regions; for the high corruption economy, the existence of corruption but can attract direct investment from these economies. That is to say, their policy implications are opposite. But the net effect of long-term Speaking, in order to attract more foreign direct investment, we should be honest to the level of corruption in the economy convergence. That is to say, the anti-corruption to attract more foreign.4, influence of anti-corruption foreign direct investment show u characteristics in geometry. This means that the foreign direct investment and increase anti-corruption efforts the enhancement is not synchronized, the Chinese of foreign anti-corruption is a reaction time. Its meaning is, in the initial stage, anti-corruption is likely to reduce the foreign direct investment, perhaps it is because from the high corruption economy FDI reduction effect exceeds the increase effect from clean economy FDI. Of course, this stage or a temporary reduction does not necessarily reflect the reduced amount of investment, may reflect in slowing the growth rate of investment in the right side of the U-shaped curve, with the anti-corruption continue to promote investment and business cycles More and more investors to improve the environment, anti-corruption is expected to stabilize. Then, increase the effect from clean countries or regions will be more than FDI from the high corrupt economy FDI reduction effect, the net effect is positive, increased foreign direct investment.5, from the view of the control variable, agglomeration economy increase, the human capital level, infrastructure improvement, direct quotation appreciation of the exchange rate policy to support efforts to strengthen and improve the economic growth can promote the inflow of foreign direct investment. The political environment difference is positively correlated with FDI, dare to explain foreign political environment in different regions to carry out investment activities. Our estimation results also show direct investment wages with the level of foreign positive correlation, the possible mechanism is that, in the same situation of labor supply and demand, rising wages of labor quality improvement in the value realization, but also high The signal quality of the labor force, and high wages often represent a higher market scale and the consumption level. The negative effect, this study shows that cultural differences, control of the economy and the government will inhibit the inflow of geographic distance of foreign direct investment. In addition, the relative economic scale and relative population size and foreign direct investment positive correlation with gravitational effect on foreign direct investment. Of course, the impact of economy on different levels of corruption also exist difference. For direct investment from honest economy and the Confucian cultural circle, which has a negative impact on the economic scale, the relative population size is promoted. The relative situation of group corruption is just the opposite. We can see the comprehensive research, the existing literature on the controversial relationship between corruption, anti-corruption and foreign direct investment, in addition to the same Research Institute On time, area and methods of research, is the most simple from the absolute level to discuss their relationship, or just study their linear relationship, while ignoring the possible nonlinear relationship. Our work is to a certain extent, bridging the dispute, to promote related studies. The policy meaning from the empirical research are: China to anti-corruption; in the anti-corruption process should pay more attention to the system construction, pay attention to the stability and adjustment of market expectations; to continue to enhance the level of human capital, continue to improve the infrastructure, increase policy support efforts to attract foreign capital inflows; and also to reduce government control of the economy. Let the market in the allocation of resources to play a fundamental role. Of course, there are also some regret, which is insufficient. The limit of data, so that we In the analysis of absolute levels of corruption affect foreign direct investment, time series analysis can only be engaged in the national level, resulting in the conclusion of the study is slightly rough. To explore the effect of anti-corruption in foreign direct investment, industry effect and effect of enterprises failed to China anti-corruption impact of FDI, from the total cases also failed to separate the major cases influence. In theory, different industries, different attributes of corporate corruption, anti-corruption will have different reactions. Moreover, compared with the general case of investigating major cases, can show Chinese government commitment and efforts to anti-corruption, their impact may be more significant. But as a result of < Chinese attorney Yearbook Yearbook > > and < Chinese legal cases of major provinces and cities, the lack of information is serious, I can't from the general case in precipitation cases, panel data cases. In the third chapter and the fourth chapter of the empirical In the analysis, data from a single run not robustness test, it is also a problem. If there is any relevant data, this study will be more in-depth. The next step of the research work in the field in corruption, anti-corruption measure and database construction, differences in the level of corruption and foreign direct investment, and foreign anti-corruption direct investment to start the three levels. The study of enterprise anti-corruption effect and industry effect. Chinese focus on anti-corruption practice may bring economic and social impact, nonlinear characteristics, paying particular attention to the impact of the timely extraction, found the problem, let the related research complement each other.

【学位授予单位】：中央财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：D262.6;F832.6

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