区域间灭火资源优化配置研究
发布时间：2019-02-15 12:35
【摘要】： 经济的快速发展引发火灾事故的频度上升、危害性增大，相应地使得社会对灭火资源的需求数量增加，所以有必要完善目前的灭火资源配置格局，适应不断社会发展的需求。区域间的资源配置可以解决目前消防工作中存在的一些问题，诸如日益增大的危险源需求、消防装备与消防人员的不足与管理部门的重复建设等；而且由于消防装备的发展、信息技术的增强以及经济的提高为区域间的资源配置提供了物质及技术保障。 国内外对灭火资源配置的相关研究已经取得了一定的成果，但也存在着一些问题，主要表现为：①危险源消防资源需求研究基本是从技术角度出发，对危险源发生火灾后所需的灭火救援资源进行计算，忽略了火灾发生概率的影响。②在灭火能力的定量研究中，大多通过建立评估指标利用层次分析法得到一个灭火能力或者组织效能的无量纲值，这种方法在某些情况下有失偏颇；并且由于它不具有物理意义，使其应用范围有限。③资源配置方式的现有研究中，则往往由于缺少衡量布局优劣的标准，难以对资源配置方式进行准确的比较。 从系统分析角度研究灭火资源配置，它是在衡量了灭火资源需求方的需求大小与灭火资源供给方的灭火能力后，根据一定的灭火资源配置标准，选取合适的灭火资源配置方式。灭火资源的需求主要来自于危险源，它决定了对灭火资源需求的频度与数量；灭火资源的供给主要来自于各类消防组织，影响灭火能力的因素主要有：灭火剂、消防人员、消防装备与通讯设施等；灭火资源配置需要遵循几项原则，即整体性原则、动态性原则、平衡性原则与可行性原则。以系统分析的结论为基础，作者深入论述了构成灭火资源配置系统的各个部分。 危险源需求传统的计量是危险源的确定性需求，它着重考察危险源发生火灾后对灭火资源的需求数量，忽略了火灾发生可能性对灭火资源需求的影响，难以准确计量危险源的长期需求，，因此论文提出非确定性需求。非确定性需求是由危险源的确定性需求要素与火灾发生概率要素二者构成，并具有不确定性、低概率、规律性与层次性等特征。计算非确定性需求的关键是确定火灾发生概率，火灾发生的概率主要由危险源本身的性质决定，具有一定的统计规律性，由此提出利用火灾发生频率历史数据与危险源的特征参数拟合的方法来确定危险源火灾概率，并设计火灾概率神经网络算法进行回归预测。最后以油罐为例验证神经火灾概率网络算法的有效性。 由于在传统灭火能力的研究中，没有非常明确衡量灭火能力的量纲，导致计算方法不是很客观、科学。通过研究灭火能力构成，发现两个特征：构成灭火能力的要素具有一定的层次性；不同层次的要素在数量上有一定的比例关系。据此，可以将构成灭火能力的要素根据比例关系逐层转化成为灭火剂的供给，并以此表征灭火能力。并以此为基础，建立了一种专门的数学模型，求出了比较客观、科学的灭火能力值。利用此模型计算了三个中队(站点)与整个区域的灭火能力，验证了提出的模型与算法的有效性。 根据站点与危险源对应的不同，资源配置方式可以分为站点配置方式与灭火圈资源配置方式，为更精确的比较这两种资源配置方式，提出危险源火灾成本概念，分别测算单一站点资源配置方式及灭火圈资源配置方式对应的危险源火灾成本。由此得出了结论：首先，灭火圈资源配置方式不比站点配置方式差，更加适合于区域间灭火资源配置；其次，资源配置数量不同直接影响灭火圈的火灾成本。这说明了资源数量配置的不同对于火灾成本有着较大的影响，针对灭火圈资源数量优化问题，即对站点分配投资或者如何调整站点的资源配置数量，使得火灾成本最低，进行了探讨。以区域中某种资源的火灾成本最低为优化目标，构造了相应的优化模型，提供了相应的计算方法，为优化灭火圈资源配置方式提供了定量依据。 论文主要从定量角度研究了灭火资源配置及其相关问题，改进发展了传统研究中的不够完善之处，使得相应的理论研究更加科学、合理。
[Abstract]:The rapid development of the economy causes the frequency of fire accident to rise, the harmfulness is increased, and the demand quantity of the society to the fire-fighting resources is correspondingly increased, so it is necessary to improve the current situation of fire-fighting resource allocation and adapt to the demand of the continuous social development. The resource allocation between the areas can solve some problems existing in the existing fire-fighting work, such as the increasing demand of the hazard source, the shortage of the fire-fighting equipment and the fire-fighting personnel and the repeated construction of the management department, etc., and the development of the fire-fighting equipment, The enhancement of information technology and the improvement of economy provide material and technical support for the resource allocation between the regions. The research on fire-fighting resource allocation at home and abroad has achieved some achievements, but there are some problems. The main performance is that the research of fire-fighting resource demand of the dangerous source is from the technical point of view, and the fire-fighting and rescue needed after the fire of the hazard source The resource is calculated and the fire is ignored. In the quantitative study of fire-fighting ability, a dimensionless value of fire-extinguishing ability or organizational effectiveness is obtained by means of the analytic hierarchy process, and this method is not biased in some cases; and because it does not have the physical meaning, it makes it The application range is limited. In the existing research of the resource allocation method, it is difficult to enter the resource allocation method because of the lack of the standard to measure the advantages and disadvantages of the layout. The fire-extinguishing resource allocation is studied from the system analysis angle, which is based on a certain standard of fire-fighting resource allocation after the demand-size of the demand side of the fire-fighting resource and the fire-extinguishing ability of the fire-fighting resource-generating party are measured. The appropriate fire-extinguishing resource allocation method is selected. The demand of fire-fighting resources mainly comes from the hazard source, which determines the frequency and quantity of the demand for fire-fighting resources; the supply of the fire-fighting resources is mainly from various fire-fighting organizations, and the factors that affect the fire-fighting ability are mainly: the fire-extinguishing agent and the fire-fighting Personnel, fire equipment and communication facilities, etc. The fire-fighting resource allocation needs to follow several principles, that is, the integrity principle and the dynamic original The principle of balance and the principle of feasibility are based on the conclusion of system analysis. The traditional measurement of the hazard source demand is the deterministic demand of the hazard source. It focuses on the demand quantity of the fire-fighting resources after the fire of the hazard source, and ignores the possibility of the fire and the fire-fighting resources. The impact of demand makes it difficult to accurately measure the risk For the long-term demand of the risk source, the non-deterministic demand is put forward. The non-deterministic demand is composed of both the deterministic demand factor of the hazard source and the fire-occurrence probability element. The key to the calculation of the non-deterministic demand is to determine the probability of the fire, and the probability of the occurrence of the fire is mainly in danger. The nature of the risk source is determined by the nature of the risk source, which has certain statistical regularity, and the method of fitting the characteristic parameters of the historical data of the occurrence frequency of the fire and the hazard source is proposed to determine the fire probability of the hazard source. and a fire probability neural network algorithm is designed for regression prediction. The effectiveness of the neural network algorithm for the verification of the neurofire probability is verified by the oil tank. It is not very objective and scientific to measure the dimension of fire-fighting ability, and it is not objective and scientific to measure the fire-extinguishing ability. It is found that two characteristics are found through the study of the fire-extinguishing ability: the elements that make up the fire-fighting ability There is a certain level of hierarchy; the elements of different levels have a certain proportion to the quantity. according to the proportion, the supply of the fire-extinguishing agent is converted layer by layer, and the fire-extinguishing capacity is characterized by the method, A special mathematical model is given, and the value of objective and scientific fire-extinguishing ability is obtained. Three squadrons (sites) are calculated by using this model.) The effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm is verified by the fire-fighting ability of the whole area. According to the difference between the site and the hazard source, the resource allocation method can be divided into the site configuration mode and the fire-fighting ring capital The source configuration mode provides a concept of hazard source fire cost for a more accurate comparison of the two resource allocation modes, It is concluded that the method of resource allocation of the fire-extinguishing ring is not worse than that of the site, and it is more suitable. In addition, the number of resources is different and directly affects the fire cost of the fire-fighting ring. This indicates that the different resource allocation has a great influence on the fire cost, and the problem of the optimization of the resource quantity of the fire-extinguishing ring, that is, the site The allocation of investment or how to adjust the resource allocation quantity of the site makes the fire cost the lowest, and the discussion is made. The minimum fire cost of some kind of resource in the region is the optimization goal, and the corresponding optimization is constructed. In this paper, the corresponding calculation method is provided, and the quantitative basis for optimizing the resource allocation of the fire-extinguishing ring is provided. The paper mainly studies the resource allocation of the fire-extinguishing ring from the quantitative point of view.
【学位授予单位】：同济大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2006
【分类号】：D631.6
本文编号：2423354
[Abstract]:The rapid development of the economy causes the frequency of fire accident to rise, the harmfulness is increased, and the demand quantity of the society to the fire-fighting resources is correspondingly increased, so it is necessary to improve the current situation of fire-fighting resource allocation and adapt to the demand of the continuous social development. The resource allocation between the areas can solve some problems existing in the existing fire-fighting work, such as the increasing demand of the hazard source, the shortage of the fire-fighting equipment and the fire-fighting personnel and the repeated construction of the management department, etc., and the development of the fire-fighting equipment, The enhancement of information technology and the improvement of economy provide material and technical support for the resource allocation between the regions. The research on fire-fighting resource allocation at home and abroad has achieved some achievements, but there are some problems. The main performance is that the research of fire-fighting resource demand of the dangerous source is from the technical point of view, and the fire-fighting and rescue needed after the fire of the hazard source The resource is calculated and the fire is ignored. In the quantitative study of fire-fighting ability, a dimensionless value of fire-extinguishing ability or organizational effectiveness is obtained by means of the analytic hierarchy process, and this method is not biased in some cases; and because it does not have the physical meaning, it makes it The application range is limited. In the existing research of the resource allocation method, it is difficult to enter the resource allocation method because of the lack of the standard to measure the advantages and disadvantages of the layout. The fire-extinguishing resource allocation is studied from the system analysis angle, which is based on a certain standard of fire-fighting resource allocation after the demand-size of the demand side of the fire-fighting resource and the fire-extinguishing ability of the fire-fighting resource-generating party are measured. The appropriate fire-extinguishing resource allocation method is selected. The demand of fire-fighting resources mainly comes from the hazard source, which determines the frequency and quantity of the demand for fire-fighting resources; the supply of the fire-fighting resources is mainly from various fire-fighting organizations, and the factors that affect the fire-fighting ability are mainly: the fire-extinguishing agent and the fire-fighting Personnel, fire equipment and communication facilities, etc. The fire-fighting resource allocation needs to follow several principles, that is, the integrity principle and the dynamic original The principle of balance and the principle of feasibility are based on the conclusion of system analysis. The traditional measurement of the hazard source demand is the deterministic demand of the hazard source. It focuses on the demand quantity of the fire-fighting resources after the fire of the hazard source, and ignores the possibility of the fire and the fire-fighting resources. The impact of demand makes it difficult to accurately measure the risk For the long-term demand of the risk source, the non-deterministic demand is put forward. The non-deterministic demand is composed of both the deterministic demand factor of the hazard source and the fire-occurrence probability element. The key to the calculation of the non-deterministic demand is to determine the probability of the fire, and the probability of the occurrence of the fire is mainly in danger. The nature of the risk source is determined by the nature of the risk source, which has certain statistical regularity, and the method of fitting the characteristic parameters of the historical data of the occurrence frequency of the fire and the hazard source is proposed to determine the fire probability of the hazard source. and a fire probability neural network algorithm is designed for regression prediction. The effectiveness of the neural network algorithm for the verification of the neurofire probability is verified by the oil tank. It is not very objective and scientific to measure the dimension of fire-fighting ability, and it is not objective and scientific to measure the fire-extinguishing ability. It is found that two characteristics are found through the study of the fire-extinguishing ability: the elements that make up the fire-fighting ability There is a certain level of hierarchy; the elements of different levels have a certain proportion to the quantity. according to the proportion, the supply of the fire-extinguishing agent is converted layer by layer, and the fire-extinguishing capacity is characterized by the method, A special mathematical model is given, and the value of objective and scientific fire-extinguishing ability is obtained. Three squadrons (sites) are calculated by using this model.) The effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm is verified by the fire-fighting ability of the whole area. According to the difference between the site and the hazard source, the resource allocation method can be divided into the site configuration mode and the fire-fighting ring capital The source configuration mode provides a concept of hazard source fire cost for a more accurate comparison of the two resource allocation modes, It is concluded that the method of resource allocation of the fire-extinguishing ring is not worse than that of the site, and it is more suitable. In addition, the number of resources is different and directly affects the fire cost of the fire-fighting ring. This indicates that the different resource allocation has a great influence on the fire cost, and the problem of the optimization of the resource quantity of the fire-extinguishing ring, that is, the site The allocation of investment or how to adjust the resource allocation quantity of the site makes the fire cost the lowest, and the discussion is made. The minimum fire cost of some kind of resource in the region is the optimization goal, and the corresponding optimization is constructed. In this paper, the corresponding calculation method is provided, and the quantitative basis for optimizing the resource allocation of the fire-extinguishing ring is provided. The paper mainly studies the resource allocation of the fire-extinguishing ring from the quantitative point of view.
【学位授予单位】：同济大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2006
【分类号】：D631.6
【引证文献】
相关博士学位论文 前2条
1 周俊;城市火灾消防规划支持方法研究[D];武汉大学;2011年
2 周天;城市火灾风险和防火能力研究[D];同济大学;2007年
相关硕士学位论文 前1条
1 方晨;海上突发事故应急资源优化配置问题研究[D];大连海事大学;2011年
本文编号：2423354
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