我国养老地产项目投资风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-05-05 21:04

本文选题：养老地产 + 风险评价　；参考：《山东建筑大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：养老地产是在住宅开发的基础上增加了养生、休闲、医疗及护理等养老配套服务功能的一种新型的地产模式。在我国老龄化程度加剧的背景下,养老地产的发展在国内逐渐受到重视。养老地产作为一种特殊的地产开发模式,具有一定的公益性质,它不仅要获得投资效益,还要产生社会效益。投资收益主要来自于养老住宅的出租、销售以及配套的养老服务,社会效益就是能够逐步有效地解决我国日益严峻的养老问题。养老地产在我国刚刚起步,缺乏在养老地产项目上投资开发的经验,再加上养老地产项目具有投资大、投资回报期长和运营管理复杂等特点,使得开发商在投资开发养老地产项目时会面临一定的风险。文章从开发商的角度出发对养老地产项目投资风险进行分析研究,目的是为了有效地降低项目投资风险、减少损失,进而提高项目开发的成功率。因此,对养老地产项目投资风险的研究具有重要的理论与现实意义。文章首先从国内外对养老地产的理论研究和实践入手,简述了养老地产的概念和特点,总结了我国养老地产的发展现状,并对相关的风险管理理论进行了阐述。其次,从政策、经济、选址、市场、开发建设和管理运营等六个方面找出养老地产项目投资开发过程中存在的风险因素。根据存在的各种风险因素得到了养老地产项目投资风险清单,并形成风险指标体系。再次,根据层次分析法确定养老地产项目投资风险因素的权重,并根据权重大小找到关键风险因素。构建模糊物元评价模型,确定养老地产项目投资风险等级。分析结果显示扶持政策缺乏系统性、扶持力度不够、投资回收期长、融资渠道单一、市场不成熟、养老服务水平不高以及缺乏管理运营能力是养老地产项目投资的关键风险因素。最后,针对养老地产项目投资的关键风险因素提出相对应的建议,为我国养老地产项目的风险管理工作提供借鉴和指引,降低养老地产项目投资开发的风险,进而促进我国养老地产的健康发展。
[Abstract]:Endowment real estate is a new type of real estate mode, which adds the supporting services of health, leisure, medical treatment and nursing on the basis of residential development. Under the background of the aggravation of aging in our country, the development of endowment real estate has been paid more and more attention in our country. As a special real estate development mode, endowment real estate has a certain commonweal nature. It not only obtains investment benefit, but also produces social benefit. The investment income mainly comes from the rental, sale and supporting pension service of the old-age housing. The social benefit is to solve the increasingly severe pension problem gradually and effectively in our country. Pension real estate in China has just started, lack of investment in the development of pension real estate projects experience, plus pension real estate projects with large investment, investment return period and complex operation management, and so on. Developers will be faced with certain risks when they invest in the development of pension real estate projects. This paper analyzes the investment risk of the pension real estate project from the angle of the developer, in order to effectively reduce the project investment risk, reduce the loss, and then improve the success rate of the project development. Therefore, it has important theoretical and practical significance to study the investment risk of pension real estate projects. This paper begins with the theoretical research and practice of the endowment real estate at home and abroad, briefly introduces the concept and characteristics of the endowment real estate, summarizes the present situation of the development of the endowment real estate in our country, and expounds the related risk management theory. Secondly, we find out the risk factors in the process of investment and development of pension real estate projects from six aspects: policy, economy, location, market, development and construction, and management and operation. According to the existing risk factors, the investment risk list of pension real estate project is obtained, and the risk index system is formed. Thirdly, according to the analytic hierarchy process to determine the investment risk factors of pension real estate project weight, and according to the weight to find the key risk factors. The fuzzy matter-element evaluation model is constructed to determine the investment risk level of pension real estate projects. The results show that the support policy is not systematic, the support is not enough, the investment payback period is long, the financing channel is single, and the market is not mature. The low level of pension service and the lack of management and operation ability are the key risk factors for the investment of pension real estate projects. Finally, in view of the key risk factors of the investment of the pension real estate project, the corresponding suggestions are put forward, which can provide reference and guidance for the risk management of the pension real estate project in our country, and reduce the risk of investment and development of the pension real estate project. Then promote the healthy development of endowment real estate in our country.
【学位授予单位】：山东建筑大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23;D669.6

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