苏格兰独立公投失败的主要影响因素——基于民调的分析

发布时间：2018-01-10 23:30

本文关键词：苏格兰独立公投失败的主要影响因素——基于民调的分析　出处：《国际政治科学》2016年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：2014年9月18日,苏格兰举行了全民独立公投,9月19日得出计票结果,55.8%的投票者选择留在英国。1虽然此次公投已经尘埃落定,但给人们留下了值得深思的问题:是什么原因让投票者大多数选择苏格兰留在英国而不是独立?苏格兰独立公投失败的主要影响因素是什么?本文通过对英国民调机构舆观(You Gov)、Panelbase、ICM、Survation、特恩斯市场研究公司(TNS)、益普索集团(IPSOS)在公投前半年内对支持或反对苏格兰独立所做的36次民调数据进行分析,得出的结论是:苏格兰独立公投失败的主要影响因素是选民出于对自身经济利益的考虑,即大多数选民担心苏格兰独立后经济将会下滑、个人收入和生活水平将会降低,他们把选票投向了反对苏格兰独立的一方。2016年6月23日,英国举行了脱欧公投,支持英国脱离欧盟的一方获胜。7—10月,英国民调机构"舆观"又进行了几次关于是否赞成苏格兰脱离英国的民意调查,其数据显示,反对苏格兰独立依然占受访者的多数,而对经济前景的担忧依然是选民考虑的主要因素。
[Abstract]:In September 18, 2014, Scotland held a referendum on independence in September 19th, the election results, voters chose to stay in the 55.8% British.1 although the referendum has been settled, but to the people left a question: what is the reason that most voters choose Scotland stay in the UK rather than independent? What are the main factors affecting the failure of the referendum on Scotland independence? According to the British polling agency (You Gov), and the concept of Panelbase, ICM, Survation, the market research company TNS (TNS), Ipsos group (IPSOS) in the first half of the year in the 36 referendum poll support or oppose Scotland independence to do data analysis, the conclusion is: the main influencing factors of Scotland independence referendum failed the voters are out of their own economic interests, that most voters worried after the independence of Scotland economy will decline, personal income and health The living standard will be reduced, they have voted against Scotland's Independence Party.2016 in June 23rd, the British held off the European referendum, in support of the UK from the EU side to win.7 in October, the British polling agency "and" made several polls whether in favor of Scotland from the United Kingdom, the data show that still, the majority of respondents oppose Scotland independence, and concerns about the economic outlook is still the main factors for voters to consider.

【作者单位】：清华大学国际关系学系;
【分类号】：D756.1
【正文快照】： 2014年9月18日,英国的苏格兰地区举行了全民独立公投,其结果是投票者中55.8%的人反对苏格兰从英国独立出去。相比于其他国家举行的独立公投,本次公投是在英国社会相对稳定、没有战乱,苏格兰和英格兰之间也没有明显的宗教、种族、历史和文化冲突的情况下进行的。虽然此次公投

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