贵州省人口迁移特征及其影响因素的研究

发布时间：2018-02-04 06:02

本文关键词： 人口迁移多区域离散型人口发展模型灰色-神经网络　出处：《贵州财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：人口迁移现象一直以来都是人口学、社会学、地理学等多学科交融的重要研究领域。人口迁移的趋势预测主要是对未来一定时期内的迁移模式进行预测。本文基于贵州第五次和第六次人口普查等相关数据资料,根据相关人口学理论,通过测定迁移人口规模、分析迁移行为的影响因素以及预测迁移趋势等对贵州人口迁移的基本情况进行分析。研究结果显示,贵州省劳动年龄人口占人口总数的比例,多年来保持着增长趋势,但21世纪的第一个十年里,劳动年龄人口在数量上第一次下降。由于贵州省第六次人口普查资料中缺少迁移人口年龄构成情况,因此选择从第五次人口普查资料的长表数据来进行分析。迁移人口总体文化水平达到了中等教育程度。贵州人口迁移以社会型迁移为主,其次为经济型迁移。务工经商比重也较高,表明随着经济的不断发展,选择贵州省在务工经商的迁移人群在迁移人群中占比愈发增加。在经济型迁移中,男性多于女性。在社会型迁移中,女性多于男性迁移者。在人口总量规模的预测中,中方案显示2010-2020年贵州省常住人口呈现上升的态势,但增长缓慢,与之前的普查资料比较显示,1982年第三次全国人口普查前,贵州省的人口增长速度较快。2011-2020年,迁移人口数量呈现稳步增长的态势,乡村迁移人口数量高于城市迁移人口数量,但随着时间推移,这种差距将逐渐减小;迁移规模在性别这一因素上没有明显的差别,从数据上来看,男性没有出现明显高于女性的迁移倾向。
[Abstract]:The phenomenon of population migration has always been demography, sociology. The trend prediction of population migration is mainly to predict the migration pattern in a certain period in the future. This paper based on the data of 5th and 6th population censuses in Guizhou. Material. According to the relevant demographic theory, the basic situation of Guizhou population migration is analyzed by measuring the migration population scale, analyzing the influencing factors of migration behavior and forecasting migration trend. Guizhou Province's working-age population as a proportion of the total population has maintained a growing trend for many years, but in the first decade of 21th century. The number of working-age population declined for the first time. Due to the lack of migration age composition in the 6th census data of Guizhou Province. Therefore, we choose the long table data from 5th census data to analyze. The overall cultural level of the migrated population reaches the level of secondary education. Guizhou population migration is mainly social migration. The second is economic migration. The proportion of migrant workers in business is also higher, indicating that with the development of economy, the proportion of migrant population in Guizhou province is increasing. Men are more than women. In social migration, women are more than male migrants. In the forecast of total population size, the middle plan shows that the resident population of Guizhou Province increased from 2010 to 2020. But growth has been slow. Compared with previous census data, Guizhou Province's population growth rate was faster before the third National Census in 1982. 2011-2020. The number of migration population is increasing steadily, the number of rural migration population is higher than that of urban migration population, but with the passage of time, the gap will gradually decrease. There was no significant difference in the size of migration between men and women, and there was no significant difference in migration tendency between men and women.
【学位授予单位】：贵州财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.2

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