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“全面二孩”政策下的中国人口结构解析

发布时间:2018-04-28 14:16

  本文选题:动态完全生命表 + 变参数年龄移算法模型 ; 参考:《统计与决策》2017年08期


【摘要】:文章编制了连续年份的动态完全生命表,采用变参数年龄移算法模型,对我国2016—2040年的人口进行了精准评估,结果显示:我国将在2025年迎来人口峰值14.05亿,在2040年左右迈入"超少子化"和"超级老龄化"的行列,老龄化的发展速度将超过少子化,男女比例失衡的现状会得到改观。可见,"全面二孩"政策对人口问题全方位调整的短期效应并不明显,但会改善人口性别结构和家庭内部结构。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the dynamic complete life table of successive years is compiled, and the population of China in 2016-2040 is accurately evaluated by using the variable parameter age shift algorithm model. The results show that China will usher in a population peak of 1.405 billion in 2025. In 2040 or so, the development speed of aging will exceed that of minority children, and the imbalance between men and women will be changed. It can be seen that the short-term effect of the "comprehensive two-child" policy on the overall adjustment of the population problem is not obvious, but it will improve the gender structure of the population and the internal structure of the family.
【作者单位】: 山西财经大学统计学院;山西财经大学信息管理学院;
【基金】:国家社会科学基金资助项目(12CTJ006)
【分类号】:C924.2


本文编号:1815612

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