基于改进的Lee-Carter模型的中国生育率变化趋势分析

发布时间：2018-08-12 17:30

【摘要】：人口问题是关系我国社会经济发展的首要问题。自上个世纪末,我国育龄妇女生育率一直维持在较低水平,低生育率水平带来社会老龄化,劳动力锐减等一系列问题。是否应该放开“独生子女”政策成为社会讨论的热点问题。分析并预测我国育龄妇女生育率变化趋势对我国制定人口政策具有重要指导意义和参考价值。本文根据《中国人口统计年鉴》(1988-2009)的数据,利用新改进的Lee-Carter模型对全国、城市、城镇、乡村四个组别的育龄妇女总和生育率(TFR)和分年龄生育率进行估计和预测。改进的Lee-Carter模型能够更准确地描述分年龄生育率随年份的变化。通过分析发现：20世纪90年代末全国育龄妇女生育率持续降低,2000年前后达低谷。从2000年开始,全国、城市27岁以上、城镇26岁以上、乡村25岁以上的育龄妇女一胎生育率都有增长的趋势；城市和乡村育龄妇女二胎及二胎以上生育率有增长趋势并已超出“独生子女”政策的数量限制。同时,通过比较2009年育龄妇女生育率观测值(2009年年度0.1%抽样调查数据)和基于2000-2008年的2009年的预测值可以看出：2009年四个组别育龄妇女二胎及二胎以上的分年龄生育率与2008年大体处于同一水平；但是对于一胎来说,2009年分年龄生育率与2008年处于同一水平的只有城市的妇女,对于城镇低于26岁、乡村低于25岁的妇女,2009年一胎分年龄生育率的观测值比2008年低。这可能是最近几年的城镇化导致育龄妇女结婚年龄推迟所致。是否调整计划生育政策有待于进一步商榷。目前,我们应该准确把握人口数量、质量及结构的动态变化,遵循人口与生态环境和经济、社会协调发展的准则,保持适度的人口增长速度,改善男女性别比例失调,改善人口结构,缓解人口老龄化进程。使人口发展与经济、社会、资源、环境的发展相互适应,相互协调,相互促进,实现人与自然和谐共处。
[Abstract]:Population problem is the most important problem related to the social and economic development of our country. Since the end of the last century, the fertility rate of women of childbearing age in China has been maintained at a relatively low level, which has brought about a series of problems, such as the aging of society and the sharp decline of labor force. Whether the one-child policy should be liberalized has become a hot issue in the society. It is of great significance and reference value to analyze and predict the trend of fertility rate of women of childbearing age in China. Based on the data of China demographic Yearbook (1988-2009), this paper estimates and forecasts the total fertility rate (TFR) and the age-related fertility rate of women of childbearing age in four groups: national, urban, urban and rural by using the new improved Lee-Carter model. The improved Lee-Carter model can more accurately describe the age-by-age fertility rate changes with the year. It is found by analysis that the fertility rate of women of childbearing age continued to decrease in the late 1990s and reached a low level around 2000. Since 2000, the one-child fertility rate of women of childbearing age above the age of 27 in cities, over 26 in towns and over 25 in rural areas has been increasing throughout the country; The fertility rate of urban and rural women with two or more children is increasing and has exceeded the limit of one-child policy. meanwhile By comparing the fertility observations of women of childbearing age in 2009 (data from the 2009 sampling survey of 0.1 per cent) and the projections for 2009 based on 2000-2008, it can be seen that the age specific fertility rates of the four groups of women of childbearing age and older in 2009 are the same as those of women of childbearing age. 2008 was roughly at the same level; However, for one child, the 2009 age fertility rate was at the same level as in 2008 for urban women, and for women under the age of 26 in towns and under 25 years in rural areas, the one-child age fertility rate in 2009 was lower than in 2008. This may be the result of urbanization in recent years that has delayed the age of marriage for women of reproductive age. Whether or not to adjust the family planning policy remains to be further discussed. At present, we should accurately grasp the dynamic changes in population quantity, quality and structure, follow the principle of coordinated population, ecological environment and economic and social development, maintain a moderate population growth rate, and improve the gender imbalance between men and women. To improve the population structure and ease the aging process of the population. So that the population development and the development of economy, society, resources and environment can adapt, coordinate and promote each other, and realize the harmonious coexistence of man and nature.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C924.21

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