人口结构变化对潜在增长率的影响:中国和日本的比较
发布时间：2018-08-12 17:43
【摘要】：人口结构变化可以通过直接和间接效应影响一个国家的潜在增长率。人口红利消失将导致潜在增长率下降已经在文献中被证实。从第六次人口普查来看,中国正在经历人口结构的转变,这与20世纪90年代初的日本非常相似。我们分别对中国1980~2030年和日本1960~2010年的潜在增长率进行了估计,通过对比发现,与日本相似,由于人口结构变化,中国未来的潜在增长率将迅速降低。然而,日本在人口红利消失后仍然坚持采用经济刺激计划试图维持之前的经济增长速度,最终导致经济泡沫不断膨胀并破裂,对实体经济的破坏可能远不止是"失去的十年"。中国应该借鉴日本的教训,避免采用经济刺激方案,人为推高经济增长率。
[Abstract]:Demographic changes can affect a country's potential growth rate through direct and indirect effects. The loss of the demographic dividend will lead to a decline in the potential growth rate, which has been confirmed in the literature. According to the sixth census, China is undergoing a demographic shift, much like Japan in the early 1990s. We estimate the potential growth rate of China from 1980 to 2030 and Japan from 1960 to 2010. It is found by comparison that the potential growth rate of China will decrease rapidly because of the change of population structure. However, Japan's insistence on using the stimulus package to maintain the pace of its previous economic growth after the loss of the demographic dividend eventually led to the expansion and bursting of the bubble, and the damage to the real economy may go well beyond the "lost decade." China should learn from Japan's lessons and avoid using stimulus packages to artificially boost growth.
【作者单位】： 中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所;
【分类号】：C921
[Abstract]:Demographic changes can affect a country's potential growth rate through direct and indirect effects. The loss of the demographic dividend will lead to a decline in the potential growth rate, which has been confirmed in the literature. According to the sixth census, China is undergoing a demographic shift, much like Japan in the early 1990s. We estimate the potential growth rate of China from 1980 to 2030 and Japan from 1960 to 2010. It is found by comparison that the potential growth rate of China will decrease rapidly because of the change of population structure. However, Japan's insistence on using the stimulus package to maintain the pace of its previous economic growth after the loss of the demographic dividend eventually led to the expansion and bursting of the bubble, and the damage to the real economy may go well beyond the "lost decade." China should learn from Japan's lessons and avoid using stimulus packages to artificially boost growth.
【作者单位】： 中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所;
【分类号】：C921
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前3条
1 都阳;陆e，
本文编号：2179816
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/shekelunwen/renkou/2179816.html
最近更新
教材专著
