区域就业人口变动趋势视角下的沿海产业转移趋势及障碍因素研究

发布时间：2019-05-23 02:01

【摘要】：加快沿海产业向中西部转移进程是国家关注的焦点问题。本文从区域就业人口变动角度,分别选取东部典型产业转移省份(广东、浙江、江苏)、中西部典型产业承接省份(安徽、湖南、湖北;广西、陕西、四川),利用各省1978—2010年三次产业就业数据,建立时间序列ARIMA模型,并预测2011—2014年各省三产就业人数,从未来就业变动数据可以得出以下几点结论:(1)沿海产业转移尚未形成规模趋势,且西部产业承接比中部发展较快;(2)产业转移区域内部差异显著;(3)沿海三产发展滞后、中西部二产水平低等是阻滞产业向中西部转移的重要因素。
[Abstract]:Speeding up the transfer of coastal industries to the central and western regions is the focus of national attention. From the point of view of regional employment population change, this paper selects the typical industrial transfer provinces in the east (Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu) and the typical industrial undertaking provinces in the central and western regions (Anhui, Hunan, Hubei). Guangxi, Shaanxi, Sichuan), based on the employment data of three industries in various provinces from 1978 to 2010, the ARIMA model of time series is established, and the number of employment in each province from 2011 to 2014 is forecasted. From the future employment change data, the following conclusions can be drawn: (1) the coastal industrial transfer has not yet formed a scale trend, and the western industrial undertaking develops faster than the central part; (2) there are significant differences among the industrial transfer regions, and (3) the lag of the development of coastal third production and the low level of secondary production in the central and western regions are the important factors that hinder the transfer of industries to the central and western regions.
【作者单位】：湖南科技大学区域地理研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目:基于地域承载系统适配性的产业集群式转移时空演替机理与调控模式研究(41271139) 国家社科基金重大项目:中部地区承接沿海产业转移政策措施研究(09&ZD041) 教育部人文社会科学基金项目(12YJC790111;13YJC630187)阶段性成果湖南省社科基金项目(2010YBA095)阶段性成果
【分类号】：C924.2;F121.3;F224

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