制度安排与人口生产：短缺还是过剩

发布时间：2019-06-04 17:18

【摘要】：人类历史上长期和普遍存在的一些基础性制度安排影响着社会的人口规模,并决定了一个社会的人口规模相对于其资源禀赋和技术水平是否是最优的。这些基础性制度安排在农业社会主要表现为农业生产中的自耕制、租佃制和雇工制。由于自耕制和雇工制下家庭的人口生产不会为家庭或者地主带来新增的土地,因此人口生产没有外部性,单个家庭理性决策产生的社会人口规模实现了社会最优水平。但是租佃制下,新增的人口总能为家庭带来新增的土地使用权,当地租率不能完全反映土地对产出的贡献率,具体说是当地租率小于土地贡献率时,人口生产就为家庭带来一个正的外部性,从而激励家庭生产更多人口,致使最终的社会人口规模超过最优水平,出现人口过剩。将该理论应用到对近代以来的人口转变的解释,发现技术进步、雇工制的兴起和市场经济的发展都为近代以来的人口增长率的下降做出了贡献。通过对经济史的考察,确定农业社会的地租率由习俗确定,而习俗确定的地租率一般而言低于土地对产出的贡献率,因此农业社会可能存在普遍的人口过剩。这就为剩余劳动力的产生提供了一个微观解释。运用本文的理论框架,对新中国成立以来的人口政策进行了分析和评价,指出了人口控制政策的性质,以及制度变迁和市场经济在中国人口转变过程中的作用,提出了人口政策应该关注的另外一个方向,即人口“质量”过剩的问题。
[Abstract]:The long-term and widespread basic institutional arrangement in human history influences the population size of society and determines whether the population size of a society is optimal with respect to its resource endowment and technical level. These basic systems are arranged in the agricultural society mainly as the self-tillage system, the rent-making system and the employment system in the agricultural production. Since the production of the population under the self-tillage system and the domestic workers does not bring new land to the family or the landowner, the production of the population does not have the externality, and the social population scale produced by the single family rational decision realizes the social optimal level. However, under the lease system, the newly-added population will always bring the new land use right to the family, and when the land rent rate can not fully reflect the contribution rate of the land to the output, in particular, when the land rent rate is less than the land contribution rate, the population production brings a positive externality to the family, So as to stimulate the family to produce more people, so that the size of the final social population exceeds the optimal level, and the population is surplus. The application of this theory to the interpretation of the transformation of the population in the modern times has made a contribution to the decline of the population growth rate since the modern times, with the discovery of technological progress, the rise of the labor system and the development of the market economy. Through the study of the economic history, it is determined that the rent rate of the agricultural society is determined by the custom, and the land rent rate determined by the custom is generally lower than the contribution rate of the land to the output, so the agricultural society may have a widespread overpopulation. This provides a micro explanation for the production of the surplus labor force. The paper analyses and evaluates the population policy since the founding of the new China, and points out the nature of the population control policy, and the role of the system change and the market economy in the process of the population transformation in China, and puts forward the other direction that the population policy should pay attention to. That is, the problem of excess population "quality".
【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：C92-05

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