西北农村居民消费的影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-02-11 19:12

本文关键词： 西北地区农村消费影响因素　出处：《西安石油大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国作为一个发展中国家,自改革开放以来一直保持着稳定的经济增长和发展,但是,居民消费作为拉动经济的要素之一却一直处于较低水平。尤其在我国西北地区,农村居民的生活条件并没有完全与社会发展进程保持同步,农村居民消费显著偏低。2014年底,我国西北地区农村人口达到6576万人,占西北地区总人口近66.4%,占全国总人口4.8%,但西北地区农村居民消费总量仅占全国居民总消费的1.82%,消费规模相比其人口规模比例失调。在这种情况下,研究影响我国西北地区农村居民消费的因素,对提高整个西北地区农村居民消费水平、促进西北地区经济健康发展以及改善西北地区贫穷落后的现状极具现实意义。根据2005-2014年我国西北地区农村居民的消费现状和消费特征定性、定量分析,西北地区农村居民的生活消费水平总体上保持着逐年提升的趋势,2014年该地区农村居民消费水平达到了7335元,跟2005年相比增长了3.65倍,但是在全国范围内仍处于较低水平。通过对消费结构的分析,可以看出甘肃居民在吃喝方面花销大,青海交通工具投资多,陕西居民看病贵。消费倾向方面,除青海省以外西北地区其余四省农村居民的消费倾向都高于全国平均水平,说明西北地区农村居民消费欲望较为强烈。通过选取农村居民人均纯收入、少儿抚养比、老年抚养比、医疗开支占比和城镇化率等五个解释变量,在定性分析的基础上,以2005-2014年西北地区5省农村居民家庭数据为基础,构建面板数据回归模型,应用FGLS回归方法对以上五个因素进行实证分析。研究结果表明:在五个影响因素中,农村居民人均纯收入对西北地区农村居民消费的影响最为显著;农村居民人均纯收入、老年抚养比和城镇化率与居民消费存在显著正相关关系;而少儿抚养比和医疗支出的增加都不利于西北地区农村居民消费水平的提升。最后,结合对西北地区农村居民消费现状的分析和消费影响因素的实证研究结果,从提高西北地区农村居民消费水平、改善其生活条件的角度出发,提出以下扩大我国西北地区农村居民消费的政策建议:一是建立收入增长的长效机制,增强西北农村居民消费能力;二是完善西北农村社会保障体系,切实提升农村居民消费倾向;三是建立基于西北农村留守群体需求的刺激消费机制;四是实施就近城镇化策略,推动西北城镇化率稳步提升。
[Abstract]:China, as a developing country, has maintained steady economic growth and development since the reform and opening up. However, residents' consumption as one of the factors driving the economy has been at a relatively low level, especially in the northwest region of China. The living conditions of rural residents have not kept pace with the progress of social development. The consumption of rural residents is significantly low. At the end of 2014, the rural population in Northwest China reached 65.76 million. It accounts for nearly 66.4% of the total population of the Northwest region and 4.8% of the total population of the whole country, but the total consumption of rural residents in the Northwest region is only 1.82% of the total consumption of the whole country, and the scale of consumption is unbalanced compared with its population size. In this case, This paper studies the factors influencing rural residents' consumption in Northwest China, and improves the consumption level of rural residents in Northwest China. It is of great practical significance to promote the healthy economic development and improve the poverty and backwardness in Northwest China. According to the consumption status and consumption characteristics of rural residents in Northwest China from 2005 to 2014, it is of great practical significance to analyze quantitatively and qualitatively. On the whole, the living and consumption level of rural residents in Northwest China has maintained an upward trend year by year. In 2014, the consumption level of rural residents in this region reached 7,335 yuan, an increase of 3.65 times compared with 2005. However, it is still at a relatively low level in the whole country. Through the analysis of the consumption structure, we can see that Gansu residents spend a lot on food and drink, Qinghai has a lot of investment in transportation, and Shaanxi residents are expensive to see a doctor. In terms of consumption propensity, The consumption tendency of rural residents in the other four provinces except Qinghai Province is higher than the national average, indicating that the consumption desire of rural residents in Northwest China is relatively strong. By selecting the per capita net income of rural residents, the child-rearing ratio, On the basis of qualitative analysis, based on the household data of rural residents in five provinces of Northwest China from 2005 to 2014, a panel data regression model was constructed based on the five explanatory variables such as the dependency ratio of the elderly, the proportion of medical expenses and the urbanization rate. The FGLS regression method is used to analyze the above five factors. The results show that the per capita net income of rural residents has the most significant impact on rural residents' consumption in Northwest China, and the per capita net income of rural residents is the most significant. The elderly dependency ratio and urbanization rate have significant positive correlation with resident consumption, while the increase of child dependency ratio and medical expenditure are not conducive to the improvement of consumption level of rural residents in Northwest China. Based on the analysis of the consumption situation of rural residents in Northwest China and the results of empirical research on the influencing factors of consumption, this paper starts from the point of view of improving the consumption level and living conditions of rural residents in Northwest China. The following policy suggestions are put forward to expand rural residents' consumption in Northwest China: first, to establish a long-term mechanism for income growth to enhance the consumption capacity of rural residents in northwest China; and second, to improve the rural social security system in northwest China. Third, to establish a stimulating consumption mechanism based on the needs of rural left-behind groups in northwest China; fourth, to implement the strategy of urbanization in the vicinity, and to promote the rate of urbanization in northwest China steadily.
【学位授予单位】：西安石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F323.8

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