我国基本养老保险基金投资组合策略研究

发布时间：2018-06-15 00:19

本文选题：基本养老保险基金 + 投资组合　；参考：《西北农林科技大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：席卷全球的人口老龄化浪潮和我国未富先老的基本国情使我国当前的养老保险制度和金融结构面临巨大的冲击。而投资收益低、投资渠道窄这两方面的问题,长期以来都在我国基本养老保险基金的投资运营中存在。基本养老金的收益率长期处于低收益率的状态,甚至为负值,基本养老保险基金的收益无法赶上通货膨胀率的增长,最基本的保值目标都无法达到,更谈不上增值目标。因此,如何通过相关的金融措施,金融政策以及金融制度等方面的金融改革,来进一步提高养老保险基金的支付能力,从根本上促进基本养老金的资产的增值,从而实现养老金不断增值的目标,这对于我国的金融产业以及养老产业都具有极其重要的现实意义。本论文在养老基金入市的金融政策背景下,以我国养老体系运营的客观条件和现实环境为基础,分析了我国的基本养老保险基金投资运营情况。通过对现状的分析发现,一方面,基本养老金的严重贬值、基金收支不平衡和基金缺口等问题,严重制约着我国的基本养老保险基金的增值发展,另一方面,在基本养老保险基金的统筹上,实现全国统筹的进程阻碍重重,包括不同地区经济发展差异和城乡差异等方面。而在监管方面,我国的养老金运营监管现状也不容乐观。以对社保基金的成功经验为依据,从多元化投资的可行性和必要性方面分析发现,多元化投资适用于我国基本养老保险基金的运营策略。并运用现代投资组合理论,以SPSS软件为工具,选取了股票、国债、和银行存款三种投资工具,选取2005-2015年的相关指标,分别得出以CPI为保值目标下的最优投资组合比例,和以社保基金为增值目标下的最优投资组合比。通过实证得出若以CPI为保值目标,其最优投资比例为其最优投资比例为债券投资比90.23%,股票投资比率为3.51%,银行存款6.26%。以社保基金年化收益率为增值目标的投资比例分别为该组解代表在以社保基金为增值目标下对应的最优投资比例。分别为,国债投资比率32.03%,股票投资比率37.50%,银行存款投资比率30.47%。针对实证分析结果及现状分析,对于我国基本养老保险基金的投资运营,从完善市场、投资运营策略的创新以及监管等方面提出了相关的政策建议。
[Abstract]:The aging wave of population which is sweeping the world and the basic national conditions that are not rich in our country make the current endowment insurance system and financial structure of our country face great impact. The two problems of low investment income and narrow channel of investment have long existed in the investment and operation of basic endowment insurance fund in China. For a long time in the state of low yield, even negative, the income of the basic endowment insurance fund can not catch up with the growth of the inflation rate, and the most basic goal is not to be reached, not to mention the value added target. Therefore, how to further raise the financial reform through the related financial measures, financial policy and the financial system. The payment ability of the high endowment insurance fund will fundamentally promote the value-added of the basic pension assets, thus achieve the goal of increasing the value of the pension, which is of great significance to the financial industry and the pension industry in our country. This paper is operated under the background of the financial policy of the pension fund entering the city and the operation of the pension system in our country. On the basis of the objective conditions and the realistic environment, this paper analyzes the investment and operation of the basic endowment insurance fund in China. Through the analysis of the current situation, it is found that, on the one hand, the serious devaluation of the basic pension, the imbalance of fund balance and the fund gap seriously restrict the value-added development of the basic endowment insurance fund of our country, on the other hand, On the basis of the basic endowment insurance fund, the process of realizing national overall planning is obstructing, including the differences in economic development and the difference between urban and rural areas in different regions. In the supervision, the status of the supervision and regulation of the pension operation is not optimistic. The analysis found that the diversification of investment is suitable for the operation strategy of the basic endowment insurance fund of our country, and using the modern investment portfolio theory, the three investment tools of stock, treasury bond and bank deposit are selected with the SPSS software as the tool, and the relative indexes of 2005-2015 years are selected, and the optimal portfolio ratio under the target of CPI is obtained respectively. And the optimal portfolio ratio with the social security fund as the value added target. Through the empirical analysis, the optimal investment ratio is that the ratio of the optimal investment ratio is 90.23%, the ratio of stock investment is 90.23%, the ratio of stock investment is 3.51%, the proportion of the bank deposit 6.26%. with the annual return rate of social security fund as the value added target is the solution of the group solution respectively. The ratio of the best investment to the social security fund is 32.03%, the ratio of the investment of the national debt is 32.03%, the ratio of the stock investment is 37.50%. The ratio of the bank deposit investment ratio is aimed at the results of the empirical analysis and the analysis of the status quo. The investment operation of the basic endowment insurance fund of China is to improve the market and the investment operation strategy. Relevant policy suggestions are put forward and so on.
【学位授予单位】：西北农林科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F842.67

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