中国税收结构与居民消费率关系研究

发布时间：2018-07-17 21:35

【摘要】：西方学者们对消费行为与消费函数进行过系统性的研究,本文首先简要的阐述了经典消费理论,并就这些理论中的差异进行了比较。再结合国内外学者对中国消费率的研究成果,建立了包含税收结构的居民消费率模型,试图分析我国税收结构对居民消费率的影响,并提出相关政策建议。本文采用的是面板数据模型,选取了全国30地区1999年-2104年的数据,选取的控制变量包括收入水平、收入增长率、收入差距、实际利率、通货膨胀、社会保障以及人口结构。模型方面,先建立了不含居民消费率滞后项的静态面板模型,然后将居民消费率滞后一期作为解释变量加入到模型,构建了动态面板模型。经过F检验与Hausman检验,静态面板模型选用的是固定效应估计;动态面模型估计方法是广义矩估计法。通过比较静态与动态模型的估计结果,本文发现动态面板模型设计更符合中国的情况,相关的参数的检验也更显著。实证结果得到了本文的重要的结论:间接税比例过高是导致我国居民消费不高的原因之一。从控制变量结果看,收入水平的增加并不一定能提高居民消费率,还要取决于收入差距,收入差距的扩大会显著的使居民消费率下降。实际利率、少儿抚养比与居民消费率之间的关系和众多学者的研究结论一致,老年抚养比与生命周期理论不符合,社会保障的系数为正,但不显著。政策建议方面,本文提出了以下几点:1、逐步优化税收结构,提高直接税比重;2实施积极的财政政策,缩小收入差距;3、扩大社会保障支出,促进社保预期形成。
[Abstract]:The western scholars have carried on the systematic research to the consumption behavior and the consumption function, this article first briefly elaborated the classical consumption theory, and has carried on the comparison to these theories difference. Combined with the domestic and foreign scholars' research on the consumption rate of China, this paper establishes the model of resident consumption rate including the tax structure, and tries to analyze the influence of the tax structure on the consumption rate of Chinese residents, and puts forward some relevant policy recommendations. In this paper, the panel data model is used to select the data from 1999 to 2104 in 30 regions of China. The control variables include income level, income growth rate, income gap, real interest rate, inflation, social security and population structure. In terms of the model, the static panel model without the lag term of resident consumption rate is first established, and then the dynamic panel model is constructed by adding the resident consumption rate lag period as an explanatory variable to the model. After F test and Hausman test, the static panel model is fixed effect estimation, and the dynamic surface model estimation method is generalized moment estimation method. By comparing the estimation results of the static and dynamic models, it is found that the dynamic panel model design is more suitable for the situation in China, and the test of the related parameters is more significant. The empirical results show that the high proportion of indirect tax is one of the reasons for the low consumption of Chinese residents. From the results of control variables, the increase of income level does not necessarily improve the consumption rate of residents, but also depends on the income gap, the widening of income gap will significantly reduce the consumption rate of residents. The relationship between the real interest rate, the dependency ratio of children and the consumption rate of the residents is consistent with the conclusions of many scholars. The dependency ratio of the elderly does not accord with the theory of life cycle, and the coefficient of social security is positive, but not significant. In terms of policy suggestions, this paper puts forward the following points: 1, gradually optimize the tax structure, increase the proportion of direct tax to implement active fiscal policy, narrow the income gap, expand social security expenditure, and promote the formation of social security expectation.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F812.42;F126.1

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