财政支农支出对农村居民消费总量及结构的影响研究

发布时间：2018-07-24 21:37

【摘要】：投资、消费和出口是拉动经济增长的“三架马车”,但是我国的经济增长过度的依靠投资和出口的作用,而出口的拉动效用有限,投资的拉动效用又需要消费来进行支撑,消费对经济增长的拉动作用也不足。所以,我国内需不足特别是农村居民消费需求的不足成为制约我国经济增长的主要因素,这就决定了拉动我国经济增长的根本动力是提高农村居民消费水平。我国是一个农业大国,对农业进行宏观调控的重要手段主要是财政政策,在拉动居民消费、优化居民消费结构等方面具有重大的意义。通过财政的支农惠农政策,最大程度地发挥财政资金的作用,作为撬动农村居民消费需求的杠杆,不仅是提高农民消费水平所必需的,也是提高农民收入水平,改善农民生活质量,解决“三农”问题所要求的。只有充分释放农民的消费潜力,才能真正地扩大内需,才能从根本上改善农村居民的生活质量。本文基于2003-2014年度的面板数据,运用计量经济学的实证方法,研究了财政支农支出对农村居民消费总量及结构的影响。本文首先对财政支农支出对农村居民消费影响的理论进行分析,其中运用凯恩斯理论对财政支出与居民消费之间的关系进行理论分析,并分析了财政支出对居民消费的影响机制。然后,基于1978-2014年的时间序列数据,分别对财政支农支出和农村居民消费总量及结构的现状进行了分析。在实证分析过程中,通过构建面板计量模型对财政支农支出与农村居民消费总量及结构之间的关系进行研究,研究得出结论:(1)财政支农支出对农村居民消费总量具有显著的促进作用。实证结果显示,即财政支农支出对农村居民消费总量具有显著的挤入效应,这说明财政支农支出可以提高农村居民消费,改善农民生活水平。(2)财政支农支出对农村居民消费结构具有一定的调节作用。财政支农支出对生存型消费和发展享受型消费都产生显著的挤入效应,且财政支农支出对发展享受型消费的挤入程度要大于对生存型消费的挤入程度。研究结果表明,政府通过加大对农村社会保障和公共基础设施的投入,为居民的消费提供了信心和物质基础,引起农民消费预期的改变,农民消费的意愿也提高了,农民开始注重生活水平的质量,对发展享受型消费方面的支出逐渐增加,对农村居民的消费结构进行了优化。(3)农村居民的收入是影响农村居民消费的重要因素。实证结果显示,农村居民收入对农村居民消费总量具有显著的挤入效应。同样,农村居民收入对农村居民发展享受型消费和生存型消费也都产生了显著的挤入效应,且对农村居民发展享受型消费的影响要大于对基本生存型消费的影响。在理论分析和实证检验的基础上,结合我国现在的实际状况,相应地提出了有关的政策建议:一是加大财政的支农力度,确保支农支出的总量;二是拓宽增收渠道,提高农民收入;三是加强基础设施建设,改善农村消费环境;四是完善农村社保体系,稳定农民消费预期。
[Abstract]:Investment, consumption and export are the "three carriages" to stimulate economic growth, but the economic growth of our country depends on the role of investment and export, and the pulling utility of export is limited. The pulling utility of investment needs to be supported by consumption, and the pulling effect of consumption on economic growth is also insufficient. The shortage of rural residents' consumption demand has become the main factor that restricts the economic growth of our country. This determines that the fundamental driving force to stimulate the economic growth of our country is to improve the consumption level of rural residents. China is a big agricultural country. The important means of macro regulation and control to agriculture are fiscal policy, which can stimulate residents' consumption and optimize the consumption knot of residents. It is of great significance to build up the policy of financial support for agriculture, to maximize the role of financial funds, as a lever to pry the consumption demand of rural residents, not only to improve the consumption level of farmers but also to improve the income level of farmers, the quality of Gai Shannong's people's life and the solution of the "three rural" problems. In order to fully release the consumption potential of farmers, we can truly expand domestic demand in order to fundamentally improve the quality of life of rural residents. Based on the panel data of the year 2003-2014, this paper studies the effect of financial support to rural residents' consumption and structure by the empirical method of econometrics. The theory of the influence of expenditure on the consumption of rural residents is analyzed, in which the relationship between fiscal expenditure and resident consumption is theoretically analyzed with Keynes theory, and the influence mechanism of fiscal expenditure on Residents' consumption is analyzed. Then, based on 1978-2014 years' time series data, the total expenditure of financial support for agriculture and the total consumption of rural residents are respectively. The current situation of the quantity and structure is analyzed. In the process of empirical analysis, the relationship between the expenditure of financial supporting agriculture and the total consumption and structure of rural residents is studied by building a panel measurement model. The conclusions are as follows: (1) the expenditure of financial support to rural residents has a significant promotion effect on the total consumption of rural residents. The expenditure of government and support agriculture has a significant effect on the total consumption of rural residents, which shows that the expenditure of financial supporting agriculture can improve the consumption of rural residents and improve the living standard of farmers. (2) the expenditure of financial support to rural residents has a certain regulating effect on the consumption structure of rural residents. The results show that the government provides a confidence and material basis for the consumption of the residents by increasing the investment in rural social security and public infrastructure, and causes the change of the consumption expectation of the farmers. The willingness of farmers to consume also increased, farmers began to pay attention to the quality of living standards, the expenditure on development and enjoyment of consumption gradually increased, the consumption structure of rural residents were optimized. (3) the income of rural residents is an important factor affecting the consumption of rural residents. The empirical results show that the income of rural residents to rural residents consumption. The total amount has significant squeezing effect. Similarly, the rural residents' income has a significant effect on the rural residents' development enjoyment consumption and survival consumption, and the impact on the rural residents' development enjoyment consumption is greater than the impact on the basic survival type consumption. On the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical test, it is combined with our country. In the actual situation, the relevant policy suggestions are put forward: one is to increase the financial support for agriculture, to ensure the total amount of the expenditure of the agriculture; two, to broaden the income increase channel and improve the income of the farmers; three, to strengthen the construction of the infrastructure and improve the rural consumption environment; four, to improve the rural social security system and to stabilize the consumption expectations of the farmers.
【学位授予单位】：浙江财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.8

【相似文献】