中国周边战略中的印度因素

发布时间：2018-04-02 02:19

本文选题：中国外交　切入点：周边战略　出处：《国际展望》2014年02期

【摘要】：印度是中国西南周边最重要的近邻,其对中国周边战略的身份是综合性的,进而也是中国周边地区战略形势演变的一个常量,这既是由印度的巨大体量所决定,也源于中印整体关系特别是可能长期存在的边界纠纷,还体现在印度对中国与南亚次大陆国家间关系的影响上。但更重要的是,随着印度的快速崛起,其对中国周边战略产生的不可预测的影响正在迅速上升。印度作为中国周边战略形势演变的变量主要体现于三个方面,即中国对印度力量的评估、美国等大国对印度地位与作用的看法以及印度的自我定位都处于变动之中。需要指出的是,上述三大变量的最终驱动力主要来自印度的发展及印度由此增加的力量将用于何种战略目标。因此,印度的何种身份以及在哪些领域对中国而言更为重要,是中国对印度战略的重要决定因素。无论从哪个角度看,印度在可预见的未来都不大可能具有助力中国的正面意义,但中国仍需要从大局出发制定促进稳定的策略,同时也需要做两手准备。一方面印度应该被视为潜在的合作伙伴,中国应致力于促进和塑造与印度的战略合作伙伴关系;另一方面,亦有必要应对印度将中国视作主要对手而来的各种消极现象,全力遏制将中印关系导向对抗的趋势。
[Abstract]:India is the most important neighbor around southwestern China. Its identity on China's peripheral strategy is comprehensive, and it is also a constant factor in the evolution of the strategic situation in the surrounding areas of China. This is determined by India's huge size. It also stems from the overall relationship between China and India, especially from the possible long-standing border disputes, and is also reflected in India's influence on relations between China and the South Asian subcontinent. But more importantly, with the rapid rise of India, Its unpredictable impact on China's peripheral strategy is rising rapidly. India, as a variable in the evolution of China's peripheral strategic situation, is mainly reflected in three aspects, namely, China's assessment of Indian power. The views of major countries such as the United States on India's status and role, as well as India's self-identity, are in flux. The ultimate drivers of these three variables are mainly India's development and the strategic objectives to which India's increased power will be directed. So what kind of identity and in what areas are more important to China, India is unlikely to have a positive impact on China in the foreseeable future, but China still needs to work out a strategy to promote stability from the overall situation. On the one hand, India should be regarded as a potential partner, and China should work to promote and shape a strategic partnership with India; on the other hand, It is also necessary to deal with the negative phenomena that India sees China as its main rival, and to curb the trend of directing Sino-Indian relations towards confrontation.
【作者单位】：上海国际问题研究院亚太研究中心;
【分类号】：D822

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