中美在中国复关入世过程中的博弈分析
发布时间：2019-01-01 15:30
【摘要】：随着国际分工合作的进一步深入，国家与国家之间的联系越来越紧密，相互之间的利益交集越来越大。国际贸易已经摆脱“单体理性，整体非理性”的博弈时代，多边贸易体制的建立使共赢、双赢成为国与国之间博弈最重要的思想。这也是多边贸易体制稳定的基础所在。多边贸易体制下，所有成员国的收益总和是扩大的，但如何划分这些收益却存在不确定因素，在这过程中存在着大量的博弈行为。 相对于一般博弈而言，国际贸易博弈是一个双层性的博弈，包括国际博弈与国内博弈。两层博弈之间存在着紧密的互动，国际贸易政策是两者之间的一个均衡。文章强调，在多边贸易体制下，博弈强调的共赢，任何一方企图以非公平的方式来解决冲突，最终导致的结果是两败俱伤。 本文从中美在中国复关入世谈判入手，分析了两个阶段中，中美双方做出不同谈判博弈背后的原因，系统分析了国际贸易谈判获胜的基本规律，，并对多边贸易体制进行一定的阐述。中国复关入世的时间长度是前所未有的，中美双方在整个过程中经历了长时间的博弈，博弈的过程也经历了一波三折。在博弈中，谈判策略随着环境的转变而转变。除了经济因素以外，政治因素以及突发事件都能够对博弈双方产生实质性的影响。中美复关入世谈判的博弈不同于其他单纯的商业经济谈判或者外交谈判，而是涉及到国内国外的经济外交谈判的双重博弈。
[Abstract]:With the further development of international division of labor and cooperation, the relationship between countries is becoming closer and closer, and the interests of each other are becoming more and more important. International trade has got rid of the game era of "single rationality, whole irrationality". The establishment of multilateral trading system makes win-win become the most important thought of game between countries. This is also the basis for the stability of the multilateral trading system. Under the multilateral trading system, the total income of all member countries is enlarged, but there are uncertain factors in how to divide these benefits. In this process, there are a lot of game behaviors. Compared with the general game, the international trade game is a bilevel game, including international game and domestic game. There is close interaction between the two levels of game, and international trade policy is a balance between them. The article emphasizes that under the multilateral trading system, the game emphasizes the win-win situation, in which any party attempts to resolve the conflict in an unfair way, and the ultimate result is that both sides lose both sides. This paper begins with the negotiations between China and the United States on China's accession to WTO, analyzes the reasons behind the different negotiation games between China and the United States in the two stages, and systematically analyzes the basic rules of winning international trade negotiations. And the multilateral trading system to a certain extent. The duration of China's entry into WTO is unprecedented. China and the United States have experienced a long period of game in the whole process, and the process of game has also experienced a series of twists and turns. In the game, negotiation strategy changes with the change of environment. In addition to economic factors, political factors and unexpected events can have a substantial impact on both sides of the game. The game of Sino-American entry into WTO is different from other simple commercial economic negotiation or diplomatic negotiation, but involves the double game of economic diplomatic negotiation at home and abroad.
【学位授予单位】：外交学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：D822.3
本文编号：2397749
[Abstract]:With the further development of international division of labor and cooperation, the relationship between countries is becoming closer and closer, and the interests of each other are becoming more and more important. International trade has got rid of the game era of "single rationality, whole irrationality". The establishment of multilateral trading system makes win-win become the most important thought of game between countries. This is also the basis for the stability of the multilateral trading system. Under the multilateral trading system, the total income of all member countries is enlarged, but there are uncertain factors in how to divide these benefits. In this process, there are a lot of game behaviors. Compared with the general game, the international trade game is a bilevel game, including international game and domestic game. There is close interaction between the two levels of game, and international trade policy is a balance between them. The article emphasizes that under the multilateral trading system, the game emphasizes the win-win situation, in which any party attempts to resolve the conflict in an unfair way, and the ultimate result is that both sides lose both sides. This paper begins with the negotiations between China and the United States on China's accession to WTO, analyzes the reasons behind the different negotiation games between China and the United States in the two stages, and systematically analyzes the basic rules of winning international trade negotiations. And the multilateral trading system to a certain extent. The duration of China's entry into WTO is unprecedented. China and the United States have experienced a long period of game in the whole process, and the process of game has also experienced a series of twists and turns. In the game, negotiation strategy changes with the change of environment. In addition to economic factors, political factors and unexpected events can have a substantial impact on both sides of the game. The game of Sino-American entry into WTO is different from other simple commercial economic negotiation or diplomatic negotiation, but involves the double game of economic diplomatic negotiation at home and abroad.
【学位授予单位】：外交学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：D822.3
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本文编号：2397749
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