IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组主要结论对《联合国气候变化框架公约》进程的影响分析

发布时间：2019-08-10 12:36

【摘要】：IPCC评估报告对国际气候变化谈判进程有重要影响,目前正在陆续发布的第五次评估报告已明确作为气候变化新协议谈判的重要信息来源,对讨论2020年后应对气候变化国际合作机制的影响不容忽视。最先发布的第一工作组评估报告基于新的科学观测事实、更为完善的归因分析和气候系统模式模拟结果,进一步确认了气候变暖的事实,发现了人类活动与全球温升之间因果关系的新证据,以及温室气体累积排放与温升响应之间的定量联系。本文通过分析其中一些关键结论可能的政策含义,探讨了这些关键结论对目前国际气候变化谈判进程和新协议等相关问题的可能影响,探讨了科学信息在气候变化决策过程中的作用,以及如何更为科学地理解和利用这些重要结论。
[Abstract]:The IPCC assessment report has an important impact on the international climate change negotiation process. The fifth assessment report, which is being released one after another, has been clearly used as an important source of information for the negotiation of the new climate change agreement, and the impact on the discussion of the international cooperation mechanism to deal with climate change after 2020 can not be ignored. Based on new scientific observations, more perfect attributive analysis and simulation results of climate system model, the first assessment report of working Group I further confirmed the fact of climate warming, found new evidence of causality between human activities and global temperature rise, and found a quantitative relationship between cumulative greenhouse gas emissions and temperature rise response. By analyzing the possible policy implications of some of the key conclusions, this paper discusses the possible impact of these key conclusions on the current international climate change negotiation process and new agreements, discusses the role of scientific information in the climate change decision-making process, and how to understand and make use of these important conclusions more scientifically.
【作者单位】：国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心;中国气象局;
【基金】：中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目“IPCC第五次评估报告第三工作组支撑研究”
【分类号】：D815;X2

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