多视角解读美国对华永久性正常贸易关系地位决策

发布时间：2018-04-26 20:58

本文选题：中美关系 + PNTR　；参考：《中国人民解放军外国语学院》2007年硕士论文

【摘要】： 冷战结束以来,经济全球化迅速发展,传统意义上的“高级政治”和“低级政治”之间的界限日益模糊,政治多极化和经济全球化成为普遍共识。各国都把发展经济放在首要地位,把发展对外经贸关系看成发展本国经济、处理国家关系的重要手段,对外贸易政策对各国经济增长和经济发展的影响达到前所未有的程度。中国和美国作为世界上最大的发展中国家和最发达的国家,在以地缘政治为基础的战略合作关系消失后,两国双边贸易却保持良好势头,贸易额呈直线上升,经济依存度不断提高。特别是在美国给予中国永久性正常贸易关系(PNTR)地位后,双边贸易以超前速度疾速发展:贸易总额由1999年的95亿美元猛增至2005年的2116.3亿美元,中国取代日本成为美国的第二大贸易伙伴;而美国也是仅次于欧盟的中国最大贸易伙伴。双边经贸关系成为两国冷战后新的战略支点。在新的世纪中,中美经贸关系面临着更广阔的前景,而与此同时,两国间的贸易摩擦也不可避免的随着不断扩展的双边贸易日益增加。在经贸关系愈来愈重要、贸易摩擦日益突出的背景下,如何全面理解美国的对华贸易决策就变得尤为重要。众所周知,美国有着世界上最为精巧复杂的对外贸易政策决策机制,一项对外贸易政策往往是各种理念相互交锋、各种利益集团彼此博弈的结果。在美国贸易政策的政治经济学文献中,国际体系主义、社会多元主义、国家制度主义三种方法并驾齐驱,成为理解美国贸易政策的三大主流范式。国际体系主义认为在塑造对外经济政策过程中,民族国家在国际经济中的地位具有决定性意义,一国在国际体系上权力分配的相对地位是理解该国对外贸易政策的钥匙。社会多元主义则认为贸易政策是国内各利益集团相互博弈的政治商品;对于任何一项贸易政策法案,各利益集团都会根据本集团的政策偏好对政府展开强大的游说活动,而代表各自选区利益的国会议员为了再次当选,总是代表本选区利益投票;在这种方法下,贸易制度的设计和架构,充其量是为利益集团进行利益角逐提供了一个竞技场,它本身不会对政策结果产生重要影响。而国家制度主义则从国家的内部政治结构、政治设计来研究贸易政策决策过程和后果,认为一国的贸易政策是由其贸易制度的设计和架构所决定;它们把国家看作是一个组织化的结构或者是由先前发生的事件形成的一整套法律或制度安排,制度一旦形成就会自动延续下去,而正是这种持久性使它们能够影响政策。本文认为,以上三种范式都从不同角度局部性地解释了美国的贸易政策,但它们无法单独解释美国贸易政策的全部内容;在当今国内与国际界线已被打破的时代,要全面理解美国的一项贸易决策,不能将这三种范式割裂开来,而要对它们进行综合考察。基于这一立论,本文尝试运用多层次分析方法对美国对华的PNTR决策进行综合分析,期望对如何全面理解与应对后PNTR时代美国的对华贸易决策能起到有益的启迪作用。论文分为六章。第一章为绪论部分,以1999中美签订关于中国加入WTO的双边协议、美国政府承诺给予中国永久性正常关系地位(PNTR)为切入点,引出美国为何会通过中国PNTR议案的思考;然后简要回顾了已有的对PNTR的研究,指出本论文意尝试运用多视角方法对PNTR进行分析,以期对影响对华PNTR议案通过的各因素有全面与准确的把握。第二章为理论部分,对国际体系主义、社会多元主义和国家制度主义三种范式各自的主要预设给予了详细阐释;并在三种范式的文献回顾中提出了本论文所要借助的具体分析理论,分别是经济相互依存理论、利益集团理论和部门间政治理论。第三章从国际体系视角出发,运用经济相互依赖理论,分析了90年代以来中美两国间急剧增强的经济相互依存关系,认为中美两国经济互补性很强,经贸合作潜力巨大;尽管两国间的相互依存是非对称性的,但任何一方想要采取危害两国经贸关系的举措时,不仅会给对方造成巨大伤害,也会给自己造成巨大伤害;相反,相互依存关系的事实决定了美国扩大与中国的经贸关系、给予中国永久性正常贸易地位符合美国最大利益。第四章运用利益集团理论,考察了中美经济依存对美国社会各利益集团的影响以及各利益集团围绕PNTR议案所展开的游说活动。论文指出,劳工集团、人权组织、环保组织以及反华势力等联合起来加强对国会游说、反对对华PNTR,这些利益集团目标不同,动机各异。而以工商业为核心的利益集团由于在华有着重大的经济利益,这促使他们在对华永久性正常贸易关系问题上积极游说政府以发展稳定、健康的对华关系,成为与反对给予中国PNTR的利益集团相抗衡的强大力量。第五章从部门间政治入手,考察了美国行政部门和立法部门就给予中国PNTR两个部门之间的互动。美国立法部门和行政部门的权力分割制衡导致了这两个部门之间在决定具体贸易政策时出现了经常性的不一致,不同的立场和观点之间形成了一种微妙的平衡。而“政治”在这两部门间就PNTR决策而产生的不一致以及最终解决这种不一致发挥了重要作用。第六章是本文的结论部分,综合总结了论文的研究结果。论文的分析证明:国际与国内因素对美国通过对华PNTR议案都起到了重要作用,中美经济相互依存的大背景决定美国给予中国PNTR符合美国最大利益,但美国社会的多元性以及美国政治制度的分权设计使得PNTR的通过一波多折。最后,论文指出了多层视角对全面理解与分析美国贸易政策的有用性和必要性,并建议,面对日益增长的中美贸易摩擦,由于双方经济相互依存的事实,我们不用也不可反应过度;但这并不意味着我们只可袖手旁观,准确分析与把握美国国内不同利益集团间的博弈以及行政和立法部门间的微妙关系,我们可以考虑采取适当的措施积极减少摩擦,进而推动双边贸易的正常发展。
[Abstract]:Since the end of the cold war, the economic globalization has developed rapidly. The boundary between the "high politics" and the "low politics" in the traditional sense has become increasingly blurred. The political multi polarization and economic globalization have become common consensus. All countries have put the development economy in the first place and regard the development of foreign trade relations as the development of the domestic economy and the relations of the state. As an important means, the impact of foreign trade policy on the economic growth and economic development of various countries has reached an unprecedented level.
As the largest developing country and the most developed country in the world, the bilateral trade between the two countries has maintained a good momentum after the disappearance of the geopolitical based strategic cooperation relationship. The trade volume is rising and the economic dependence is increasing. Especially after the permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status of China is given to the United States. Bilateral trade develops rapidly in advance: the total trade volume increases from $9 billion 500 million in 1999 to $211 billion 630 million in 2005. China has replaced Japan as the second largest trading partner of the United States, and the United States is the largest trading partner of China after the EU. Bilateral economic and trade relations become the new strategic pivot after the cold war. The economic and trade relations between China and the United States are facing a broader prospect. At the same time, the trade frictions between the two countries will inevitably increase with the expanding bilateral trade. In the context of the increasingly important economic and trade relations and the increasingly prominent trade frictions, it is particularly important to understand the US trade decision to China in a comprehensive way.
As we all know, the United States has the most sophisticated and complex policy making mechanism of foreign trade policy in the world. A foreign trade policy is often the result of the mutual confrontation between various ideas and the game of various interest groups. In the political economy literature of American trade policy, three kinds of international institutionalism, social pluralism and national institutionalism. As the three main mainstream paradigm to understand American trade policy, the international system believes that in the process of shaping foreign economic policy, the status of national countries in the international economy is decisive. The relative position of power distribution in the international system is the key to the understanding of the country's foreign trade policy. It holds that the trade policy is a political commodity for each interest group in China. For any trade policy bill, all interest groups will launch a strong lobby on the government according to the policy preference of the group, and the congressmen representing the interests of their respective constituencies are always voting for the interest of the constituency in order to be elected again. In this way, the design and structure of the trade system, at best, provides a arena for interest groups to compete for interest. It itself does not have an important impact on the policy outcome. And national institutionalism studies the process and consequences of policy decisions and the consequences of trade policy from the internal political structure of the country, and the political design of the country. Policy is determined by the design and structure of its trading system; they regard the country as an organized structure or a set of legal or institutional arrangements formed by previous events, and the system will continue as soon as the system is formed, and it is the persistence that makes it possible for it to affect the policy.
This article holds that these three paradigms all explain the American trade policy locally from different angles, but they can not explain the whole content of the US trade policy alone. In an era where the domestic and international boundaries have been broken, a comprehensive understanding of a trade decision in the United States can not be separated from the three paradigms. We conducted a comprehensive survey.
Based on this theory, this paper attempts to make a comprehensive analysis of the PNTR decision of the United States to China by means of multilevel analysis. It is expected to play a beneficial and enlightening role in understanding and responding to the United States' trade decision to China in the post PNTR era.
The paper is divided into six chapters.
The first chapter is the introduction to the bilateral agreement between China and the United States on China's accession to the WTO. The United States government promises to give China a permanent normal relationship position (PNTR) as the breakthrough point, and leads to the reason why the United States will pass the thinking of the Chinese PNTR bill. Then it briefly reviews the existing research on the PNTR and points out that this thesis attempts to use multiple perspectives. The law carries on the analysis to PNTR, with a view to having a comprehensive and accurate grasp of the factors that affect the adoption of the PNTR bill in China.
The second chapter, as the theoretical part, gives a detailed explanation of the main presuppositions of the three paradigms of international institutionalism, social pluralism and national institutionalism; and in the literature review of the three paradigms, the specific analytical theories are proposed in this paper, namely, the interdependence theory of the economy, the theory of interest groups and the interdepartmental politics. Theory.
The third chapter, from the perspective of the international system and using the theory of economic interdependence, analyzes the rapid economic interdependence between China and the United States since 90s. It is believed that the economic complementarity between China and the United States is strong and the potential of economic and trade cooperation is great. Although the interdependence between the two countries is asymmetric, the two countries want to take harm to the two countries. The measures of economic and trade relations will not only cause great harm to each other, but also cause great harm to themselves. On the contrary, the fact of interdependence determines the US expansion of economic and trade relations with China, and the permanent normal trade status of China is in the best interests of the United States.
The fourth chapter, using the interest group theory, examines the influence of the economic dependence of China and the United States on the various interest groups in the United States and the lobbying activities of the interest groups around the PNTR motion. The paper points out that labor groups, human rights organizations, environmental organizations and anti Chinese forces have joined together to strengthen the lobbying of Congress and against China's PNTR. The group has different goals and different motives, and the interest groups, with industry and commerce as the core, have great economic interests in China, which has prompted them to actively lobby the government to develop stable, healthy relations with China and become a powerful force against the interest group against China's PNTR on the issue of permanent normal trade relations with China.
The fifth chapter, starting with interdepartmental politics, examines the interaction between the United States administration and the legislature to give the two sectors of China's PNTR. The balance of power between the United States legislative and administrative departments leads to the frequent inconsistencies between the two departments in determining specific trade policies, between different positions and views. A delicate balance is formed, and "politics" plays an important role in the two divisions between the inconsistencies produced by the PNTR decision and the final resolution of the disagreement.
The sixth chapter is the conclusion of this paper. The analysis of the thesis is a comprehensive conclusion. The analysis of the thesis proves that the international and domestic factors have played an important role in the United States through the PNTR motion to China. The big background of the interdependence between China and the United States decides that the American PNTR is in accord with the greatest interests of the United States, but the diversity of American society and the United States In the end, the paper points out the usefulness and necessity of multi-layer perspective on the comprehensive understanding and analysis of American trade policy, and suggests that, in the face of growing Sino US trade frictions, we can not and can not be overreacted because of the economic interdependence between the two sides. We can only stand by, accurately analyze and grasp the game between different interest groups in the United States and the subtle relationship between the administrative and legislative departments. We can consider taking appropriate measures to reduce friction and further promote the normal development of bilateral trade.

【学位授予单位】：中国人民解放军外国语学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2007
【分类号】：K712.54

【参考文献】