制度距离、相邻效应与双边贸易——基于“一带一路”国家空间面板模型的实证分析

发布时间：2018-05-25 15:12

  本文选题：制度距离 + 双边贸易　； 参考：《财经研究》2017年01期

【摘要】：制度在双边贸易中具有举足轻重的作用。文章首次将相邻效应引入传统的制度与贸易关系的分析框架,运用空间面板模型深入考察了制度距离、相邻效应对中国与"一带一路"国家双边贸易的影响。结果表明,中国与"一带一路"沿线国家之间在文化、法律、宏观经济制度以及微观经济制度方面的差异显著抑制了双边进出口贸易的发展,并且这种抑制作用在长期更为显著。进一步引入相邻效应的分析表明,中国与"一带一路"沿线国家之间的双边贸易受到中国与沿线国家邻国之间贸易的制约,即相邻效应表现为竞争关系,并且无论是针对进口贸易还是出口贸易而言,中国与沿线国家之间的制度距离均强化了相邻效应的"竞争"作用,但上述作用在不同地区具有显著差异。因此,在推进"一带一路"战略时,中国需要考虑制定相关的配套政策来平衡中国与"一带一路"国家,特别是与这些两两相邻国家之间的双边贸易利益,以促进中国与各国双边贸易关系的良性发展。
[Abstract]:The system plays an important role in bilateral trade. For the first time, this paper introduces the adjoining effect into the traditional analysis framework of the institutional and trade relations, and uses the spatial panel model to investigate deeply the influence of the institutional distance and the adjacent effect on the bilateral trade between China and the "Belt and Road" countries. The results show that the differences between China and the countries along the "Belt and Road" in terms of culture, law, macroeconomic system and microeconomic system significantly inhibit the development of bilateral import and export trade. And this inhibition is more significant in the long run. The further analysis of the adjoining effect shows that the bilateral trade between China and the countries along the "Belt and Road" is restricted by the trade between China and the neighboring countries along the route. Moreover, the institutional distance between China and the countries along the route strengthens the "competition" effect of the neighboring effect, but the above effects have significant differences in different regions in terms of import trade and export trade. Therefore, in promoting the "Belt and Road" strategy, China needs to consider formulating relevant supporting policies to balance the bilateral trade interests between China and the "Belt and Road" countries, especially those neighbouring countries. In order to promote the healthy development of bilateral trade relations between China and other countries.
【作者单位】： 清华大学公共管理学院;清华大学国情研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71403135) 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(16YJC790114) 中国博士后科学基金面上一等项目(2016M590076)
【分类号】：F752
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本文编号：1933659